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[TH] Nvidia: The Future of Graphics Processing - Page 7

post #61 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by CorkyFan View Post
This sounds like those people who said we'd be living on the moon in colonies by the year 2000. It's an ambitious prediction that will never happen. It takes 18 months for graphics power to double.
I don't know how old you are but do you remember DOOM. This was done in DOS by John Carmack.

I trust Nvidia & ATI are not coasting and have not not shutdown all R&D. Also Intel is on their A$$ as well.

My GTX590 has 1024 Cuda Cores. I'm frankly amazed with what they have now. Fact is most games don't use the inherent full power of all that processing power, but it gets translated by DirectX or OpenGL at a HAL layer for us mortals to use.

If a high performance equivalent GPU even scales moderately year over year to 2015...

Q1 2011 - GTX590 1024 Cores - paid 700 & can't OC
Q1 2012 - GTX690 2048 Cores - World may end also
Q1 2013 - GTX790 4096 Cores - New 14nm process - doubles performance of cores with less heat!

Q1 2014 - GTX890 5120 Cores - "But can it ru...."

Q1 2015 - GTX990 8196 Cores - Yes

OK I know pure Dreaming but you can see with 5 years in our technological environment, advances happen really fast. Just think even 2 years ago, who could have told you with conviction that the most important thing in any childs, and most adults, sadly, would be their iPhone....sigh
post #62 of 65
Q1 2016 - GPUs no longer needed, if we want to play games, we simply put on a pair of comfortable, lightweight, glasses that bring us right into virtual reality.
    
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post #63 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by tpi2007 View Post
Who know what they are currently working on. All I know is that the math does not lie - if what they said in the conference is true about getting 30-60 fps by 2015, then they are planning on major performance enhancements. I'm still waiting to see what a properly DX11 optimized game using all the features can do with current hardware. Multi-threading is here, and SLI and Crossfire also got better with time (specially Crossfire, which everybody is praising now), so anything is possible. I actually trust this kind of previews in respect to GPU's more than with CPU's, since it's much easier to leverage the processing power in a GPU than it is to use multiple cores in a CPU.

by 2015 they will have gone from the 28nm node to the 22nm ... and probably even smaller ... so its an easy bet to get an increasein the 150% compared to what we have today .. but each new generation dont bring much these days ...


like i said even if we double up the number of shaders we wont see a 100% increase in performance or even a 50% increase ...


but shrinking the node ... adding more shaders + beefier stuff to aid the shaders to compute stuff faster makes the added shader work more ... i have no doubt that gpus will gain massive traction in the comming years in term of increasing performance ... but it wont happen this fast and this big ...


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRockMonsi View Post
I think you guys are debating about the wrong question here. The real question, in my opinion, is when game developing companies will decide to take advantage of the hardware. We see that as of today there are very few games that maximize our current hardware's potential. We can have all the processing power we want, but until it's taken advantage of, it won't matter.

game makers dont want to push their games to make them user friendly for the crowd ... not the niche market .... its basic sales ... try to reach the broader of your clientele




Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghoxt View Post
I don't know how old you are but do you remember DOOM. This was done in DOS by John Carmack.

I trust Nvidia & ATI are not coasting and have not not shutdown all R&D. Also Intel is on their A$$ as well.

My GTX590 has 1024 Cuda Cores. I'm frankly amazed with what they have now. Fact is most games don't use the inherent full power of all that processing power, but it gets translated by DirectX or OpenGL at a HAL layer for us mortals to use.

If a high performance equivalent GPU even scales moderately year over year to 2015...

Q1 2011 - GTX590 1024 Cores - paid 700 & can't OC
Q1 2012 - GTX690 2048 Cores - World may end also
Q1 2013 - GTX790 4096 Cores - New 14nm process - doubles performance of cores with less heat!

Q1 2014 - GTX890 5120 Cores - "But can it ru...."

Q1 2015 - GTX990 8196 Cores - Yes

OK I know pure Dreaming but you can see with 5 years in our technological environment, advances happen really fast. Just think even 2 years ago, who could have told you with conviction that the most important thing in any childs, and most adults, sadly, would be their iPhone....sigh


you do realise that if they double the amount of cores they will always end up with a big a la gf110 die size dont you????


they cant just add more shaders without fixing the bandwith needs to feed those added shaders ....


lots more than just adding processing cores ...


thats why i dont see gpu hiting it big like many prediction of doubling every 2 year happening soon ... 3d transistors .... ultra low leakage transistors .. or graphene ... or 3d graphene transistors ... then gpus would likely be able to give us these phenomenal performance increase that so many article seems to point to
Edited by Fr0sty - 5/7/11 at 8:30pm
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post #64 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by NITRO1250 View Post
Good. My next GPU purchase will be in 2015.
I was thinking the same thing.
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post #65 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fr0sty View Post
by 2015 they will have gone from the 28nm node to the 22nm ... and probably even smaller ... so its an easy bet to get an increasein the 150% compared to what we have today .. but each new generation dont bring much these days ...


like i said even if we double up the number of shaders we wont see a 100% increase in performance or even a 50% increase ...


but shrinking the node ... adding more shaders + beefier stuff to aid the shaders to compute stuff faster makes the added shader work more ... i have no doubt that gpus will gain massive traction in the comming years in term of increasing performance ... but it wont happen this fast and this big ...





game makers dont want to push their games to make them user friendly for the crowd ... not the niche market .... its basic sales ... try to reach the broader of your clientele








you do realise that if they double the amount of cores they will always end up with a big a la gf110 die size dont you????


they cant just add more shaders without fixing the bandwith needs to feed those added shaders ....


lots more than just adding processing cores ...


thats why i dont see gpu hiting it big like many prediction of doubling every 2 year happening soon ... 3d transistors .... ultra low leakage transistors .. or graphene ... or 3d graphene transistors ... then gpus would likely be able to give us these phenomenal performance increase that so many article seems to point to
And think about energy requirements and thermal conduction -- the reason why we're no longer excelling in speed as we've been doing for years is because the increased amount of thermal heat and energy requirements.

We need to innovate instead of just building larger PCB's and just adding more cores to them.
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