Originally Posted by andrews2547
Have a look at GT 5 lol the graphics on that are amazing, not anywhere near Avatar, but if we can get consoles to render graphics like that at 60 FPS (or 50 i can't remember) now then why can't we render Avatar quality graphics in the next 10 years? and its impossible to to show you a console that can do that because there arent any that exist even PC games can't do that now. Oh and I know that PS was released in 94/95 but its only 1 year difference.
Everything else than the car in the pic is pretty much crap. And even the car is kind of meh.
Sure avatar esque graphics do not look so much better than what we have today. Actually what we can do now is pretty much amazing and looks absolutely great. But the thing with having a completely realistic (well almost completely) looking graphics is that you really begin to see the effects of diminishing returns from more polygons and better hardware to draw the polys.
You can jump from say 6000 polygons (something like the AvP 2 back in the day) to something like 2 million (like crysis) on a screen at the same time and the difference will be huge but if you do the equivalent jump from 2 million polys upwards to 650 million polys the difference is going to be much less noticeable than the jump from 6K to 2 million.
There's a reason why the movies we have today take sometimes a day for a single frame to render with a state of the art 40K core server. The detail that current digital artist are able to put into these movies is far, far beyond what we can do with games to day. But even with that detail the difference is not that drastic, this might create an illusion that it would not take long to reach the kind of graphical fidelity. But let's face it. Within 10 years we are probably going to progress from the next console cycle to the next one. and I do not think that it will be enough time to increase our processing power for the kind of an increase we'd need for Avatar-like graphics.
On top of all this I think because of diminishing returns we're going to start seeing developers devote more of their budget to other parts of the gaming experience than the graphics. Game development cost have increased by a factor of 10 in the last 10 years and they will continue to escalate if we're going to keep pushing our artists to do more detailed work. Sure some of that can be helped with upcoming technology but in order to have better and more detailed graphics you're going to have to put more effort into them, and that's going to be hard. And why keep pushing for graphics with even more money when most of the people won't even notice or care?
In the end I expect to see better physics, bigger and more lively game environments etc. other gameplay related technical improvements take over while simple stuff like polys/character won't be such a big deal anymore. No one wants to spend thousands in order to increase their processing power 10 fold just to achieve a difference so small you really can't notice it.
So in all honesty, I do not think we're gonna reach the point in 10 years. I'd like to see it happen but I consider it unlikely.
/end of speculation lol