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[TC Magazine] Leaked roadmap shows 10-core AMD desktop CPUs in 2012 - Page 17

post #161 of 352
It's a shame all intel is good for is cpu power. Guess that's the only market they will ever get to compete in. I'm so sick of people thinking amd will fail as a company if bulldozer turns out to be slower, allthough i'm doubting this, I actually think it will be a tad faster, and a tad cheaper then sandy bridge. even if it's not You all forget amd puts more money into developing gpu's then cpu's thus, that is why they are the gpu king and APU king rather then being a cpu only king company like intel. amd is winning overall with all their products combined fyi. Intel already f'ed up by not jumping on the amd idea by purchasing nvidia in the past. Now intel has to figure something out if they want to compete in more markets in the future or further develope there own puny intel hd graphics along with there cpu at a faster rate then what they are going at, compared to the rate amd is going at with their cpu's + gpu's combined.
Edited by BankaiKiller - 7/26/11 at 1:04am
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post #162 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecnelitsep View Post
QFT! Seroxs posts come off as a guy who is just making assumptions to appease his wants of what bd should be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCPUser View Post
Yeah, even to people who like AMD, Seronx can be a bit over-the-top and know-it-allish.
They are sometimes quite entertaining in their absurdity, though:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seronx View Post
Don't get SB or IB

Zambezi 8C/8T competes with Sandy Bridge-E 8C/8T(But there isn't any 8 core on SB-E, well yes there is it is a Xeon Proc for $1500-3000)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seronx View Post
Well, once "Bulldozer" is out the 8C it will beat everything on the market for $300


Edited by 996gt2 - 7/26/11 at 12:34am
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post #163 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by 996gt2 View Post
Notice the part where I mentioned the huge difference in resources between the 2 companies. AMD doesn't have nearly the amount of money to put into R&D as Intel.



I think you're misinderstanding what I'm saying.

Here are the facts. We already know how SB performs because it's been out for almost a year. AMD chose to delay Bulldozer because they knew that at 2.5 GHz with 2.9 Turbo, Bulldozer would have no chance against SB (see the Xbit article for source). So just from this it's not a stretch to conclude that Bulldozer, at best, only has similar IPC to Sandy Bridge.
AMD might not have as much money, but money cannot buy intelligent and innovative thinking. Just look at the rise of Apple this past decade. (Except if a huge bribe is accepted. Then again, Intel already got all the engineers from AMD who were willing to accept the cash. Where do you think Quick Path Interconnect came from, lol...)

If Bulldozer has IPC similar to Sandy Bridge then it's pure win. But look at it this way...

If Bulldozer can only reach clocks of 2.5 GHz, then it'll probably be released at a stock clock of around 2.3 GHz (I'm taking this from history -- the original Phenom). A 2.3 GHz octocore based on the M-SPACE design, which is basically a more effective version of a quad-core with HyperThreading (around 30% more scaling per thread, much more in integer-based workloads). Let's take core scaling, comparing HT and the BD module, based on actual numbers that AMD has given us about BD's module and real world experience has given us about HT.

BD: 180 + 175 + 170 + 165 = 690
2600k: 130 + 125 + 120 + 115 = 490

So the module design is more effective than Intel's HyperThreading. It scales better thanks to it actually having a lot of extra hardware, like most notably an extra integer core.

Now I won't be very scientific with my numbers anymore, but the point will be somewhat accurate. So let's multiply the numbers.

BD's max overclock with turbo off is say around 3 GHz. 3*690=2070

SB's max overclock is around 5 GHz. 5*490= 2450

So even though Bulldozer has a more efficient architecture that does give us more "cores", if it loses that bad in clock speed it just loses. It'll definitely kill the 2500k if priced appropriately, but it won't harm the 2600k. And it'd be a major fail if it was priced closer to the 2600k than to the 2500k (which AMD has said it will be, so they're obviously aiming for higher).

Now, let's say AMD gets BD to clock up to 5 GHz.

5*690=3450

So at that point, they're murdering the 2600k. Then what happens when SB-E comes?

130 + 125 + 120 + 115 + 110 + 105 = 705. Assuming SB-E hits 5 GHz anywhere near as easily as SB, 705*5=3525.

If AMD can get BD to clock high enough, if what we can tell about IPC based on the design of the cores (pipelines etc) and if what AMD has told us about the efficiency of modules is all true, then $320 Bulldozer isn't going to be far behind the $1000 Sandy Bridge Extreme and AMD is a clear choice until Ivy Bridge. (OBR says that the 3930k will be $569, though -- I wouldn't trust him, but even if Intel lowers the price to that area, it's fail. It would need to be sub-$400.) And soon after Ivy Bridge, we'll have BD-E (or E-BD, whatever order you want it to be in). Haswell drops, and right around the corner we have NGBD. I think that by the time Intel has hit the Skymont architecture though, it's about time for AMD to make a big change in their architecture. Hopefully they will, because it's the mistake they made that led to them terribly failing most of the time between 2006 and 2011 (Phenom II X6 had great value when it was released, though).

So, point is: even if BD is a better architecture, it still can't fail in clocks that badly. If Pentium 4 actually did hit 10 GHz, you could bet it would beat the Athlon 64. The IPC just wasn't *that* much different. Once AMD tunes it to get higher clocks, it will destroy.

NOTE: It's very late at night over here. Please, someone (from the AMD side preferably) please let me know if everything I said above makes no sense and I *really* need to get some sleep. I'm having trouble keeping my eyes open. Believe it or not, I've been half-sleeping on and off so much I started writing this post 45 minutes ago.

EDIT: I would like to note that the equations above are done based on the assumption that Bulldozer can deliver IPC better than that of Nehalem. However, even if IPC is equal to Nehalem (which I think at this point is probably the safest estimate), take out 15% or whatever the difference between Nehalem and Sandy Bridge is from 3450 and you still have a number considerably larger than 2450.
Edited by Usario - 7/26/11 at 1:00am
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post #164 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by 996gt2 View Post
They are quite entertaining in their absurdity, though:








I asked him 4 times how he came to the conclusion that bd would compete with Sbe. I guess if he would have replied with "because I said so dammit" wouldn't have been very convincing
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post #165 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by Usario View Post
AMD might not have as much money, but money cannot buy intelligent and innovative thinking. Except a huge bribe is accepted. Then again, Intel already got all the engineers from AMD who were willing to accept the cash.

If Bulldozer has IPC similar to Sandy Bridge then it's pure win. But look at it this way...

If Bulldozer can only reach clocks of 2.5 GHz, then it'll probably be released at a stock clock of around 2.3 GHz (I'm taking this from history -- the original Phenom). A 2.3 GHz octocore based on the M-SPACE design, which is basically a more effective version of a quad-core with HyperThreading (around 30% more scaling per thread, much more in integer-based workloads). Let's take core scaling, comparing HT and the BD module, based on actual numbers that AMD has given us about BD's module and real world experience has given us about HT.

BD: 180 + 175 + 170 + 165 = 690
2600k: 130 + 125 + 120 + 115 = 490

So the module design is more effective than Intel's HyperThreading. It scales better thanks to it actually having a lot of extra hardware, like most notably an extra integer core.

Now I won't be very scientific with my numbers anymore, but the point will be somewhat accurate. So let's multiply the numbers.

BD's max overclock with turbo off is say around 3 GHz. 3*690=2070

SB's max overclock is around 5 GHz. 5*490= 2450

So even though Bulldozer has a more efficient architecture that does give us more "cores", if it loses that bad in clock speed it just loses. It'll definitely kill the 2500k if priced appropriately, but it won't harm the 2600k. And it'd be a major fail if it was priced closer to the 2600k than to the 2500k (which AMD has said it will be, so they're obviously aiming for higher).

Now, let's say AMD gets BD to clock up to 5 GHz.

5*690=3450

So at that point, they're murdering the 2600k. Then what happens when SB-E comes?

130 + 125 + 120 + 115 + 110 + 105 = 705. Assuming SB-E hits 5 GHz anywhere near as easily as SB, 705*5=3525.

If AMD can get BD to clock high enough, if what we can tell about IPC based on the design of the cores (pipelines etc) and if what AMD has told us about the efficiency of modules is all true, then $320 Bulldozer is going to compete with $1000 Sandy Bridge Extreme and AMD is a clear choice until Ivy Bridge. (OBR says that the 3930k will be $569, though -- I wouldn't trust him, but even if Intel lowers the price to that area, it's fail. It would need to be sub-$400.) And soon after Ivy Bridge, we'll have BD-E (or E-BD, whatever order you want it to be in). Haswell drops, and right around the corner we have NGBD. I think that by the time Intel has hit the Skymont architecture though, it's about time for AMD to make a big change in their architecture. Hopefully they will, because it's the mistake they made that led to them terribly failing most of the time between 2006 and 2011 (Phenom II X6 had great value when it was released, though).

So, point is: even if BD is a better architecture, it still can't fail in clocks that badly. If Pentium 4 actually did hit 10 GHz, you could bet it would beat the Athlon 64. The IPC just wasn't *that* much different. Once AMD tunes it to get higher clocks, it will destroy.

NOTE: It's very late at night over here. Please, someone (from the AMD side preferably) please let me know if everything I said above makes no sense and I *really* need to get some sleep. I'm having trouble keeping my eyes open.
Speculation and theoreticals are one thing. Actual performance is a wholly different thing.

I think we should all just take a deep breath and wait for solid, concrete benchmarks of bulldozer to come out before we start making predictions about the generation after that, lol.

At this point, we literally have nothing solid to base predictions on. Bulldozer could be a complete success. It could be a complete flop. And it could be anything in between.
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post #166 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by 996gt2 View Post
Speculation and theoreticals are one thing. Actual performance is a wholly different thing.

I think we should all just take a deep breath and wait for solid, concrete benchmarks of bulldozer to come out before we start making predictions about the generation after that, lol.

At this point, we literally have nothing to go on. Bulldozer could be a complete success. It could be a complete flop. And it could be anything in between.
THIS. Even I admitted to guessing in my post last page, lol.

Really, AMD is shipping next month (confirmed) and launching soon (*cross fingers*) after that. Waiting is the best course of action here.
Edited by JCPUser - 7/26/11 at 12:43am
post #167 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by 996gt2 View Post
Speculation and theoreticals are one thing. Actual performance is a wholly different thing.

I think we should all just take a deep breath and wait for solid, concrete benchmarks of bulldozer to come out before we start making predictions about the generation after that, lol.

At this point, we literally have nothing solid to base predictions on. Bulldozer could be a complete success. It could be a complete flop. And it could be anything in between.
As I said, my numbers were based on assumptions and estimates based on things AMD themselves have actually said. I do agree that at this point, we don't know that much about its performance, and it's best to wait for the actual release before we start making any claims that come across as definite or solid. I just wanted to point out and give my reasons for believing that based on what little we do know the FX-8130P *should* be faster than the 2600k.
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post #168 of 352

These AMD BD threads are getting to the point to where they remind me of the Odd Couple's arguments.
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post #169 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankaiKiller View Post
It's a shame all intel is good for is cpu power. Guess that's the only market they will ever get to compete in.
Intel is a major player in many other markets.
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post #170 of 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by BizzareRide View Post

My rationale is that BD which match Nehalem's IPC, which is still quite good, but will fare better in parallel since it is in fact an eight-core processor. This will put it on par or slightly ahead of Sandy Bridge-M, but behind SB-E.
Quite good? Bulldozer will be an auto win for AMD if they can match Nehalems IPC. A 2600K wouldn't even be worth considering (if the rumored prices are true).

Quote:
Originally Posted by 996gt2 View Post
Notice the part where I mentioned the huge difference in resources between the 2 companies. AMD doesn't have nearly the amount of money to put into R&D as Intel.
Intel isn't exactly putting everything they have into making better desktop chips though, are they? It makes sense for them to make small leaps while there is no/or little competition. AMD has a clear chance of coming back IMO.
Edited by GameBoy - 7/26/11 at 2:46am
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