Originally Posted by Usario
AMD might not have as much money, but money cannot buy intelligent and innovative thinking. Just look at the rise of Apple this past decade. (Except if a huge bribe is accepted. Then again, Intel already got all the engineers from AMD who were willing to accept the cash. Where do you think Quick Path Interconnect came from, lol...)
If Bulldozer has IPC similar to Sandy Bridge then it's pure win. But look at it this way...
If Bulldozer can only reach clocks of 2.5 GHz, then it'll probably be released at a stock clock of around 2.3 GHz (I'm taking this from history -- the original Phenom). A 2.3 GHz octocore based on the M-SPACE design, which is basically a more effective version of a quad-core with HyperThreading (around 30% more scaling per thread, much more in integer-based workloads). Let's take core scaling, comparing HT and the BD module, based on actual numbers that AMD has given us about BD's module and real world experience has given us about HT.
BD: 180 + 175 + 170 + 165 = 690
2600k: 130 + 125 + 120 + 115 = 490
So the module design is more effective than Intel's HyperThreading. It scales better thanks to it actually having a lot of extra hardware, like most notably an extra integer core.
Now I won't be very scientific with my numbers anymore, but the point will be somewhat accurate. So let's multiply the numbers.
BD's max overclock with turbo off is say around 3 GHz. 3*690=2070
SB's max overclock is around 5 GHz. 5*490= 2450
So even though Bulldozer has a more efficient architecture that does give us more "cores", if it loses that bad in clock speed it just loses. It'll definitely kill the 2500k if priced appropriately, but it won't harm the 2600k. And it'd be a major fail if it was priced closer to the 2600k than to the 2500k (which AMD has said it will be, so they're obviously aiming for higher).
Now, let's say AMD gets BD to clock up to 5 GHz.
So at that point, they're murdering the 2600k. Then what happens when SB-E comes?
130 + 125 + 120 + 115 + 110 + 105 = 705. Assuming SB-E hits 5 GHz anywhere near as easily as SB, 705*5=3525.
If AMD can get BD to clock high enough, if what we can tell about IPC based on the design of the cores (pipelines etc) and if what AMD has told us about the efficiency of modules is all true, then $320 Bulldozer isn't going to be far behind the $1000 Sandy Bridge Extreme and AMD is a clear choice until Ivy Bridge. (OBR says that the 3930k will be $569, though -- I wouldn't trust him, but even if Intel lowers the price to that area, it's fail. It would need to be sub-$400.) And soon after Ivy Bridge, we'll have BD-E (or E-BD, whatever order you want it to be in). Haswell drops, and right around the corner we have NGBD. I think that by the time Intel has hit the Skymont architecture though, it's about time for AMD to make a big change in their architecture. Hopefully they will, because it's the mistake they made that led to them terribly failing most of the time between 2006 and 2011 (Phenom II X6 had great value when it was released, though).
So, point is: even if BD is a better architecture, it still can't fail in clocks that badly. If Pentium 4 actually did hit 10 GHz, you could bet it would beat the Athlon 64. The IPC just wasn't *that* much different. Once AMD tunes it to get higher clocks, it will destroy.
NOTE: It's very late at night over here. Please, someone (from the AMD side preferably) please let me know if everything I said above makes no sense and I *really* need to get some sleep. I'm having trouble keeping my eyes open. Believe it or not, I've been half-sleeping on and off so much I started writing this post 45 minutes ago. (Edit added for the thread I'm reposting this in: no one has disproven this post in the thread I posted it in)
EDIT: I would like to note that the equations above are done based on the assumption that Bulldozer can deliver IPC better than that of Nehalem. However, even if IPC is equal to Nehalem (which I think at this point is probably the safest estimate), take out 15% or whatever the difference between Nehalem and Sandy Bridge is from 3450 and you still have a number considerably larger than 2450.