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How many years for SSDs to become mainstream? - Page 2

post #11 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevlo View Post
you can get a 1TB Harddrive or get 2 run them in raid and have comparable performance to a SSD.
^clearly has never used a SSD. I thought they all ready were mainstream?
post #12 of 21
SSDs need some major advancements before the can really become mainstream.

The cost/capacity ratio is horrendous. Fast HDDs are about 4-5 cents a GB. SSDs are still more than a dollar.

When I can get 10TB of SSDs for 300 bucks, then they will be mainstream.

I currently own two SSDs, but haven't gotten more because they aren't remotely economical for desktop use.
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post #13 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by HopeUTKN View Post
Do you have an idea when SSDs will become mainstream and replace HDDs completely?
Like others, I think they are mainstream with enthusiast, its the everyday "big box" buyers who haven't got a clue they are even out there and would much rather hear large GB numbers than transfer rates.

PS, I think your avatar is having a seizure.
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post #14 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by HopeUTKN View Post
Do you have an idea when SSDs will become mainstream and replace HDDs completely?
SSDs are predicted to become mainstream in 2-3 years.

They are not predicted to replace HDDs anytime in the near future (6+ years out).


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post
SSDs need some major advancements before the can really become mainstream.

The cost/capacity ratio is horrendous. Fast HDDs are about 4-5 cents a GB. SSDs are still more than a dollar.

When I can get 10TB of SSDs for 300 bucks, then they will be mainstream.

I currently own two SSDs, but haven't gotten more because they aren't remotely economical for desktop use.
SSDs do not have to match HDDs on cost/capacity though since HDDs do not match SSDs in cost/performance. Basically, you can't just compare a SSD to HDD on size alone. They fill a huge performance niche between RAM and HDDs.
Edited by DuckieHo - 8/11/11 at 9:00am
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post #15 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by dragosmp View Post
My for the mainstream HDD are here to stay. In the next few years we'll see bigger SSD caches used on HDDs and better caching algorithms that will make a pure-SSD not that much faster. In this article @anandtech the author posts how much it costs now to build a 120GB drive. Here's an example:


As such, to reach the cost/GB of a current HDD the flash memory costs should be divided by about 10.
If a 64GB chip costs $10-$20 how does 128 = $160?!? I know its not your math but based on their first conclusion of 64GB = 10-20 then id say the 128GB drive should cost closer to the $120 to make.... EDIT: DOH, they said Gbit didn't they...then the $160 they came up with is the correct number...however, see below.

Either way I call BS on the $222 range just because they are selling them for way cheaper and there is no way everyone would be switching to making SSDs if the tech was making so little profit.
Edited by Shadowclock - 8/11/11 at 9:03am
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post #16 of 21
I wont buy one until its cheaper per GB. Though I am still weary on the write limitations, even though a normal person wont reach it till 10s of years later but, its just one reason thats hanging in my head on my decision not to get one yet. The biggest gripe I have is just the price per GB.
    
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post #17 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by razaice View Post
Here on OCN, they are already somewhat mainstream. As far as the rest of the world, it won't happen until the dollar to gb ratio imroves. I'd guess in a couple years it will all be ssd though.
Yea which is the same time I grab one my self. As soon that dollar to ratio improves to where I can get a 80GB SSD for the same price of a 80GB HDD.
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post #18 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by admflameberg View Post
Yea which is the same time I grab one my self. As soon that dollar to ratio improves to where I can get a 80GB SSD for the same price of a 80GB HDD.
SSD GB/$ won't match HDD GB/$ for probably like 10 years (if that).

However, SSDs will continue to get faster while HDDs will be about the same.

The point is that a SSD is not a HDD so why do you expect the price to be the same?
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post #19 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post
SSDs do not have to match HDDs on cost/capacity though since HDDs do not match SSDs in cost/performance. Basically, you can't just compare a SSD to HDD on size alone. They fill a huge performance niche between RAM and HDDs.
The problem is that RAM itself is closer to the cost per unit of capacity of SSDs than SSDs are compared to HDDs, and DRAM prices seem to be falling at least as fast, if not faster than SSD/NAND prices.

It was more economical, from a price/performance standpont, for me to go from 6 to 24GiB of RAM than to add an SSD to my desktop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post
The point is that a SSD is not a HDD so why do you expect the price to be the same?
I expect the eventual price to be less, simply on raw materials cost.

Anyway, there are few practical things that an SSD can do 20 times faster than an HDD. Yet, they cost 20 times as much. If this was down to double, triple, or even five times, it would be an enormous improvement.
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post #20 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowclock View Post
If a 64GB chip costs $10-$20 how does 128 = $160?!? I know its not your math but based on their first conclusion of 64GB = 10-20 then id say the 128GB drive should cost closer to the $120 to make.... EDIT: DOH, they said Gbit didn't they...then the $160 they came up with is the correct number...however, see below.

Either way I call BS on the $222 range just because they are selling them for way cheaper and there is no way everyone would be switching to making SSDs if the tech was making so little profit.
The evolution of the price/GB of SSD was on a very abrupt decending slope until about 2009, since then the descent isn't that visible any more. It seems SSD have reached a plateau at about 2$/GB. It was proclaimed that 25nm manufacturing would half production costs than what they were at 32nm (2009-2010) so theoretically lower price per GB for the consumer. In practice it wasn't so and I don't think it's due to lack of competition or pricing tactics.

Look at this bit of information and think what would be the price of an SSD if IMFT would sell an 8GB flash chip for the margins Intel sells a SB dual core of equivalent die size:
Quote:
The largest 25nm MLC NAND die you can get is an 8GB capacity. A single 8GB 25nm IMFT die measure 167mm2. That's bigger than a dual-core Sandy Bridge die and 77% the size of a quad-core SNB. And that's just for 8GB.
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