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[Fud] Kepler GK104 cards in production - Page 22

post #211 of 226
Cards are still selling out pretty regularly on newegg. It's not the best measurement, but when 7 out of 12 models of 7970's are not in stock, that's a pretty good sign that supply isn't keeping up with demand. By April, I'm sure this will largely alleviated, but if you think that they're nearing full production on phase 1, you're insane.
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post #212 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeles View Post

Cards are still selling out pretty regularly on newegg. It's not the best measurement, but when 7 out of 12 models of 7970's are not in stock, that's a pretty good sign that supply isn't keeping up with demand. By April, I'm sure this will largely alleviated, but if you think that they're nearing full production on phase 1, you're insane.

I think you didn't get what I said.

But, you contradict yourself:
It's not the best measurement then pretty good sign that supply isn't keeping up with demand.

And why are you ignoring Fab 12 and Fab 14?
Edited by Seronx - 2/29/12 at 6:53pm
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post #213 of 226
Would mid June for GTX 680 be out of the question?
post #214 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seronx View Post

I think you didn't get what I said.
But, you contradict yourself:
It's not the best measurement then pretty good sign that supply isn't keeping up with demand.
And why are you ignoring Fab 12 and Fab 14?

It doesn't take a perfect measurement. It's pretty blatant that supply's not keeping up with demand if 7/12 7970 models are out of stock, and other 7xxx models are routinely going OOS. It doesn't give the full picture of the situation, but it tells enough. That's not a contradictory statement at all.

Also, Fab 14 isn't 2xnm. And if Fab 15 phase 1 isn't running (even though I'm pretty sure it is at least in some form), that proves my case even more.
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post #215 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seronx View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperTeamTango View Post

...Im serious how did you get 300 bucks from that. GTX 670 for 300, no. That'd put the 680 ~400-450. No. I'm startin to not buy this.
Who said there wasn't a 675?

680 GTX $399 for OEMs, $449.99 for US(via Newegg, Amazon, Buy.com, etc.)
675 Ti $349 for OEMs, $399.99 for US(via Newegg, Amazon, Buy.com, etc.)
^-- these won't be available till September/October timeframe..(When Cray absolutely needs an HPC GPU they get it)
670 Ti $299 for OEMs, $349.99 for US(via Newegg, Amazon, Buy.com, etc.)
660 Ti $249.99 for OEMs, $299 for US(via Newegg, Amazon, Buy.com, etc.)

400
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post #216 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agenesis View Post

Would mid June for GTX 680 be out of the question?
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/02/07/gk110-tapes-out-at-last/
GK110 taped out this month so unlikely

October is the safest bet for retail but there can be demos by GTC
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeles View Post

It doesn't take a perfect measurement. It's pretty blatant that supply's not keeping up with demand if 7/12 7970 models are out of stock, and other 7xxx models are routinely going OOS. It doesn't give the full picture of the situation, but it tells enough. That's not a contradictory statement at all.
Also, Fab 14 isn't 2xnm. And if Fab 15 phase 1 isn't running (even though I'm pretty sure it is at least in some form), that proves my case even more.
All the GigaFabs are 28nm

http://www.tsmc.com/download/4Q11_installed_capacity.pdf

2% of the 841,000 wafers were 28nm that accounts to 16,000 28nm wafers
Q1 2012 is 5-7% 45,000 28nm wafers

Q2 2012 is 7-9%
Q3 2012 is 9-13%

If we take Q4 results divide them by 35
16,000/35 => 457 28nm wafers
AMD & Nvidia since the Tahti die and the Kepler die are about the same size would allow for 150 chips per wafer
68550 chips per Nvidia and AMD
34275 pass being able to work
3427 pass being able to provide target clocks
(for AMD and Nvidia for a total of 6854 that is a 5-10% yield rate)

Do the math for Q1 2012
Edited by Seronx - 2/29/12 at 7:26pm
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post #217 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeles View Post

It doesn't take a perfect measurement. It's pretty blatant that supply's not keeping up with demand if 7/12 7970 models are out of stock, and other 7xxx models are routinely going OOS. It doesn't give the full picture of the situation, but it tells enough. That's not a contradictory statement at all.
Also, Fab 14 isn't 2xnm. And if Fab 15 phase 1 isn't running (even though I'm pretty sure it is at least in some form), that proves my case even more.

Just give it up dude.

I read almost every post on this thread and It's apparent that people already have their minds made up. You're speculating, but it's speculation based on fact and/or past history. That's completely different from others drooling at the mouth saying "Nvidia will be awesome!!!" with nothing to back it up whatsoever. The moment people started begging to pre-order a card without seeing benchmarks I knew then the type of crowd we were dealing with.
    
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post #218 of 226

300mm wafer != 28nm process.

I can't find any other sources on the matter, but this one states that only fabs 12 and 15 are "20nm" facilities.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/mapping-babel-10017967/tsmc-prepares-gigafab-for-20nm-10024983/

Also, you're right, phase 1 opens up in March.
Quote:
The first phase of Fab 15 is scheduled to begin commercial production in March 2012, focusing on 28 nm process production in the initial stage.
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post #219 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by NotUrAverageJoe View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeles View Post

It doesn't take a perfect measurement. It's pretty blatant that supply's not keeping up with demand if 7/12 7970 models are out of stock, and other 7xxx models are routinely going OOS. It doesn't give the full picture of the situation, but it tells enough. That's not a contradictory statement at all.
Also, Fab 14 isn't 2xnm. And if Fab 15 phase 1 isn't running (even though I'm pretty sure it is at least in some form), that proves my case even more.

Just give it up dude.

I read almost every post on this thread and It's apparent that people already have their minds made up. You're speculating, but it's speculation based on fact and/or past history. That's completely different from others drooling at the mouth saying "Nvidia will be awesome!!!" with nothing to back it up whatsoever. The moment people started begging to pre-order a card without seeing benchmarks I knew then the type of crowd we were dealing with.

...what's it like having such a bias that the world is more black and white then the halves of the Yin Yang symbol.

1 guy, said he'd preorder.
One.

One.

And you just painted everyone in this conversation with the same brush, does that seem even remotely wise to you?

(Also I'm betting everyone's noticed I've changed sides like 4 times)
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post #220 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeles View Post

300mm wafer != 28nm process.
I know that and I even gave numbers
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeles View Post

I can't find any other sources on the matter, but this one states that only fabs 12 and 15 are "20nm" facilities.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/mapping-babel-10017967/tsmc-prepares-gigafab-for-20nm-10024983/
Also, you're right, phase 1 opens up in March.
Fab 12, Phase 5 -> 28 nm
Fab 14, Phase 4 -> 28 nm
Fab 15, Phase 1 and 3 -> 28 nm

http://www.fabtech.org/news/_a/tsmc_adds_capacity_with_fab12_phase_5_and_fab_14_phase_4_expansions/
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperTeamTango View Post

1 guy, said he'd preorder.
One.
One.
If I had the money speculatively speaking if there was an option to pre-order I would have pre-ordered because anything is really better than my 480 nowadays

One.
plus
One.
Is Two.
Edited by Seronx - 2/29/12 at 7:53pm
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