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post #111 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post

That's what tranches and financial models are for! thumb.gifmad.gif

Even the super senior tranches have had massive losses. That is one of the reasons why JP Morgan came out of the downturn so well, because they insured losses against super senior risk through AIG and other investment banks.

The credit ratings for all the tranches were way too good anyway, probably because their financial models were not wide-reaching enough and not systemic. There is also the issue with credit ratings agencies providing better ratings than they should to ensure higher fees/extended future business. It was typical for mezzanine tranches to have BBB ratings, many insiders thought they were too toxic to even be rated.

Have you read Fool's Gold by Gillian Tett Duckie? Good read, covers a lot of this in great detail with industry insider views at times too.
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post #112 of 115
Wow, it's probably not a good thing that modern economics is based on a perpetual motion machine is it.
    
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post #113 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryand View Post

Even the super senior tranches have had massive losses. That is one of the reasons why JP Morgan came out of the downturn so well, because they insured losses against super senior risk through AIG and other investment banks.
The credit ratings for all the tranches were way too good anyway, probably because their financial models were not wide-reaching enough and not systemic. There is also the issue with credit ratings agencies providing better ratings than they should to ensure higher fees/extended future business. It was typical for mezzanine tranches to have BBB ratings, many insiders thought they were too toxic to even be rated.
Have you read Fool's Gold by Gillian Tett Duckie? Good read, covers a lot of this in great detail with industry insider views at times too.

I was joking. wink.gif

Tranches failed because how do you slice up a portfolio if you do not know how to evaluate its risk in the first place?

Models failed because they did not account for the worst case nor the interdependence of housing values. If all your neighbors have defaulted and their houses are reselling for $200K, your house is NOT worth $1M anymore.

I work first hand with modelers and by extension support traders. wink.gif

Quote:
Originally Posted by ESP View Post

Wow, it's probably not a good thing that modern economics is based on a perpetual motion machine is it.

You might enjoy this: http://www.wired.com/cloudline/2011/12/stock-market-power/


More computers => More Money => More computers => More Money => More computers => ... perpetual motion machine achieved!
Edited by DuckieHo - 3/19/12 at 1:36pm
Once again...
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post #114 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd View Post

Duckie you should probably investigate the REP begging.

You got a PM too eh?
post #115 of 115
This thread needs to be cleaned.. Until then, it's getting locked
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