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[SP] HDD Crisis Was Fake: Seagate and Western Digital Post Big Profits - Page 21  

post #201 of 237
I kind of wondered whether or not this was a real crisis when it happened...guess I have my answer now. It's not altogether surprising, though, hdd prices were at record lows and showed little sign of slowing their downward spiral. I guess claiming a natural disaster is one way to boost profits overnight...
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post #202 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigvaL View Post

Called this the day it happened and I believe it 100%. Nobody is going to convince me that 1 flood wiped out the supply of drives in ALL companies and caused this massive price jump for this long. Nope. Sorry... Do you recall the Japan tsunami and nuclear crisis? That didn't hinder tech and was worse.

Nidec got hit. So while Seagate's production lines were fine iirc, it took a while for a reliable production of motors.

And I'm sure the Japan Tsunami did cause issues for technology companies, does that mean we saw the effects on this forum? No. It might not be something we tend to be interested in..The only thing I know of for sure that Japan has heavy production of is capacitors.
    
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post #203 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigvaL View Post

Called this the day it happened and I believe it 100%. Nobody is going to convince me that 1 flood wiped out the supply of drives in ALL companies and caused this massive price jump for this long. Nope. Sorry... Do you recall the Japan tsunami and nuclear crisis? That didn't hinder tech and was worse.

...but what do you know about HDD supply chains, really? Where are your FACTS?

The Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis did hinder technology... go read up on some financial filings. In addition, that was different as factories were not directly taken out of commission for long periods of time. The tech companies were not located near the epicenter nor hit by the tsunami itself. There were fears of wafer shortages but there was an oversupply at the time and they were able to recover.


Furthermore, it is not always the direct impact of disasters that drive up price. More importantly, it is the uncertainty/risk that drives up price. Firms plan supply chains and projects months/years in advance. Disruptions today may impact projects tomorrow which drives up costs.
Edited by DuckieHo - 4/30/12 at 10:10am
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post #204 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaXxJaPxX View Post

im sorry, is this a joke?

it's called sarcasm and you should be sorry, now i'll let you figure out which part
Edited by hazarada - 4/30/12 at 10:46am
post #205 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post

...but what do you know about HDD supply chains, really? Where are your FACTS?
The Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis did hinder technology... go read up on some financial filings. In addition, that was different as factories were not directly taken out of commission for long periods of time. The tech companies were not located near the epicenter nor hit by the tsunami itself. There were fears of wafer shortages but there was an oversupply at the time and they were able to recover.
Furthermore, it is not always the direct impact of disasters that drive up price. More importantly, it is the uncertainty/risk that drives up price. Firms plan supply chains and projects months/years in advance. Disruptions today may impact projects tomorrow which drives up costs.

Yet we didn't see other pieces of technology take a 200 to 400% price increase after the tsunami. Also the prices of cars didn't go up that high either. So your rational doesn't follow any sort of logic. I think thats what people are upset with here.. The Japanese got hit a LOT harder than Thailand did. Yet the price change was negligable.
 
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post #206 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

Sarcasm aside, they still shipped 2% MORE year over year, when we are being led to believe that there is a shortage.
Found a pretty good article:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storage/display/20120402154632_Hard_Disk_Drive_Shipments_Set_to_Increase_7_7_in_2012_Analysts.html
Quote:
In the wake of two natural disasters, worldwide hard disk drive (HDD) unit shipments experienced a year-over-year decline of 4.5% in 2011. According to a new forecast from International Data Corp., the HDD industry will record year-over-year unit shipment growth of 7.7% in 2012 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% for the 2011-2016 forecast period.

I fear I may be too late to this thread, but these numbers of HDD co's shipping more for 2012, I have a questions:
1) are these numbers as of "so far" this year/1Q, 2012 Fiscal Year (Fiscal years can be wierd but Im pretty sure its still too early for one to be ending), or projections for the end of the year?
2) Are these just drives shipped, or drives sold? I've seen people mixing up words here, its not clear.
3) Are they including SSD sales in these numbers? Reports have largely been pretty specific to "HDD Companies posting profit and increased volume" not necessarily selling HDD's themselves.

If I remember correctly the floods primarily impacted existing/reserve inventory. Production was back on course fairly quickly. And didn't some of these companies purchase other companies? it makes since if Seagate Purchased Samsung and then reported greater unit sales year over year, even if there was a crisis towards the end of the last one.

If there's one thing companies are good at it's shifting numbers around to make themselves look good to impress investors. This could just be another case of numbers being pushed around.
Edited by TheSprunk - 4/30/12 at 12:58pm
    
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post #207 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkpriest667 View Post

Yet we didn't see other pieces of technology take a 200 to 400% price increase after the tsunami.
What Japanese technology was so specialized and co-located that would be impacted by the tsunami such as HDD motors?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkpriest667 View Post

Also the prices of cars didn't go up that high either.
Of course, because:
1) There are more than 2-4 car manufacturers. Japanese car companies have to price against other global and local companies. The Japanese car companies did cite tsunami impact in their filings.
2) Not all Japanese cars are not manufactured in Japan. The tsunami did hurt their parts supply chains though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkpriest667 View Post

So your rational doesn't follow any sort of logic.
Sure, it does.... I follow the markets and understand supply chains. Do you know how to read financial reports?


Hmm.... Has WD or Seagate even released their 2011 annual reports?
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61500&p=irol-sec&control_selectgroup=Annual%20Filings
http://www.seagate.com/about/investors/?navtab=financial-info-and-events&subnavtab=financial-information

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkpriest667 View Post

I think thats what people are upset with here.. The Japanese got hit a LOT harder than Thailand did. Yet the price change was negligable.
Japan got hit a lot harder as whole than Thailand. HOWEVER, the Japanese are better diversified and have stronger contingency plans.
Edited by DuckieHo - 4/30/12 at 1:22pm
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post #208 of 237
same thing is going on with the power plants and gas...... why spend money on building new ones to drive the price down , when we can just charge more..
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post #209 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by finalturismo View Post

same thing is going on with the power plants and gas...... why spend money on building new ones to drive the price down , when we can just charge more..

Does building more power plants lower cost? Most power plants are not at full capacity. Plus, the ROI on these projects are quite long so if they are not being used, you are losing money.
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post #210 of 237
I keep checking Newegg... prices still High. I need a 1 or 2 tb drive for my Fraps/music and other stuff man... 500GBs is not enough for modern games.
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