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[Techspot] Physicist predict Moore's Law will collapse in about 10 years - Page 3

post #21 of 69
How the hell do you prove 3x5=15 with only 5 atoms? Wouldn't that be 5 bits of info, meaning 15 is the highest possible number stored in those 5 atoms? Then how do you calculate with it? confused.gif


I think we'll have to move to something past Silicon pretty soon. I mean he was talking about the heat problems, and we need to look no further than Ivy to see how its already impacting our stuff.
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post #22 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by fineyoung View Post

This law crumbles already in desktop market.
By calculating cores/Sillicon mm2 over frequency, only server performance scales linearly following that law.
Otherwise I wouldn't have that old dog in my sig.


Wut?
post #23 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by fineyoung View Post

This law crumbles already in desktop market.
By calculating cores/Sillicon mm2 over frequency, only server performance scales linearly following that law.
Otherwise I wouldn't have that old dog in my sig.

Except the law doesn't say anything about performance in and of it self.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doomlord52 View Post

How the hell do you prove 3x5=15 with only 5 atoms? Wouldn't that be 5 bits of info, meaning 15 is the highest possible number stored in those 5 atoms? Then how do you calculate with it?

Quantum computers aren't binary.
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post #24 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post

Moore's Law says that transistor counts double every ~2 years. This is holding true, for now.
Moore didn't mention performance specifically. However, performance is related to this because the more transistors the more powerful the cores can be or the more cores you can have, so even in performance, it's still holding true, at least if you look at parallelizable stuff.
I have no doubt that transistors will cease to get smaller at some point in the fairly near future. This is a given, and is physically unavoidable.
However, this does not necessarily mean the end of Moore's Law.

You're right about Moore's law; I'd always heard it was the processor power that doubled but it is indeed the number of transistors on the chip that are doubling in the period given.

I still have confidence in the powers of science to increase compute power, be it in the medium of silicon or some other future technology.
post #25 of 69

Forget this, I'm still waiting for super powers as a result of a toxic spill to give me the ability to fly and shoot lasers out my eyes.

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post #26 of 69
Unless of course materials science comes to our aid and all of a sudden while we may not be able to make the transistors small, we end being able to make the processors run at 10Ghz, 50Ghz, 100Ghz, 1Thz. So there is still plenty of room. There are other neat things, like vertical transistors, that will allow for Moore's law or something close it, to continue past 10 years.
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post #27 of 69
it's already slowing down... AMD is even going backward biggrin.gif
    
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post #28 of 69
Kaku wrote this in 2003:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michio Kaku 
Ray Kurzweil’s next book, The Singularity is Near, predicts that possibly within the coming decades, there will be super-intelligence emerging on the planet that will surpass that of humans. What do you think of that idea?

Yes, that sounds interesting. But Moore’s Law will have collapsed by then, so we’ll have a little breather. In 20 years time, the quantum theory takes over, so Moore’s Law collapses and we’ll probably stagnate for a few decades after that. Moore’s Law, which states that computer power doubles every 18 months, will not last forever. The quantum theory giveth, the quantum theory taketh away. The quantum theory makes possible transistors, which can be etched by ultraviolet rays onto smaller and smaller chips of silicon. This process will end in about 15 to 20 years. The senior engineers at Intel now admit for the first time that, yes, they are facing the end.

The thinnest layer on a Pentium chip consists of about 20 atoms. When we start to hit five atoms in the thinnest layer of a Pentium chip, the quantum theory takes over, electrons can now tunnel outside the layer, and the Pentium chip short-circuits. Therefore, within a 15 to 20 year time frame, Moore’s Law could collapse, and Silicon Valley could become a Rust Belt.

This means that we physicists are desperately trying to create the architecture for the post-silicon era. This means using quantum computers, quantum dot computers, optical computers, DNA computers, atomic computers, molecular computers, in order to bridge the gap when Moore’s Law collapses in 15 to 20 years. The wealth of nations depends upon the technology that will replace the power of silicon.

This also means that you cannot project artificial intelligence exponentially into the future. Some people think that Moore’s Law will extend forever; in which case humans will be reduced to zoo animals and our robot creations will throw peanuts at us and make us dance behind bars. Now, that may eventually happen. It is certainly consistent within the laws of physics.

However, the laws of the quantum theory say that we’re going to face a massive problem 15 to 20 years from now. Now, some remedial methods have been proposed; for example, building cubical chips, chips that are stacked on chips to create a 3-dimensional array. However, the problem there is heat production. Tremendous quantities of heat are produced by cubical chips, such that you can fry an egg on top of a cubical chip. Therefore, I firmly believe that we may be able to squeeze a few more years out of Moore’s Law, perhaps designing clever cubical chips that are super-cooled, perhaps using x-rays to etch our chips instead of ultraviolet rays. However, that only delays the inevitable. Sooner or later, the quantum theory kills you. Sooner or later, when we hit five atoms, we don’t know where the electron is anymore, and we have to go to the next generation, which relies on the quantum theory and atoms and molecules.

Therefore, I say that all bets are off in terms of projecting machine intelligence beyond a 20-year time frame. There’s nothing in the laws of physics that says that computers cannot exceed human intelligence. All I raise is that we physicists are desperately trying to patch up Moore’s Law, and at the present time we have to admit that we have no successor to silicon, which means that Moore’s Law will collapse in 15 to 20 years.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/parallel-universes-the-matrix-and-superintelligence

Intel already has possible leakage and heat problems with Ivy Bridge and 3D transistors.
Edited by Riou - 5/1/12 at 6:56pm
post #29 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by doomlord52 View Post

How the hell do you prove 3x5=15 with only 5 atoms? Wouldn't that be 5 bits of info, meaning 15 is the highest possible number stored in those 5 atoms? Then how do you calculate with it? confused.gif
I think we'll have to move to something past Silicon pretty soon. I mean he was talking about the heat problems, and we need to look no further than Ivy to see how its already impacting our stuff.

5 bits can store a number up to 2^5. This allows for an unsigned integer of 0 to 31 (a range of 32). The number 32 would be represented by 11111. 16 represented by 01111.
Code:
5   4  3  2  1     Bit Position
1   1  1  1  1     Bit
16  8  4  2  1     Value represented by a bit of 1

Edited by lordikon - 5/1/12 at 7:11pm
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post #30 of 69
Thread Starter 
Kaku also mentioned, but did not go into detail about optical computing. Here's a bit of information I pulled up from a paper published by MIT:
Quote:
Non-reciprocal photonic devices, including optical isolators and circulators, are indispensible components in optical communication systems. However, the integration of such devices on semiconductor platforms has been challenging because of material incompatibilities between semiconductors and magneto-optical materials that necessitate wafer bonding, and because of the large footprint of isolator designs. Here, we report the first monolithically integrated magneto-optical isolator on silicon. Using a non-reciprocal optical resonator on an silicon-on-insulator substrate, we demonstrate unidirectional optical transmission with an isolation ratio up to 19.5 dB near the 1,550 nm telecommunication wavelength in a homogeneous external magnetic field. Our device has a small footprint that is 290 µm in length, significantly smaller than a conventional integrated optical isolator on a single crystal garnet substrate. This monolithically integrated non-reciprocal optical resonator may serve as a fundamental building block in a variety of ultracompact silicon photonic devices including optical isolators and circulators, enabling future low-cost, large-scale integration.

Full Article Here

This was published back in November 2011.

Seems to me that they are already trying to integrate photonics into modern silicon.
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