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[Techspot] Physicist predict Moore's Law will collapse in about 10 years - Page 4

post #31 of 69
Funny thing is we already have materials proven to be better than silicon: graphene.

Last I remember from OCN's newsfeed, they had working graphene transistors in lab that had thermo dynamic cooling properties under operation: The CPU cools itself. Now stack layers of transistors one on top of each other and you have: a super cooler?
post #32 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post

The same prediction has been made every few years for over 10 years now.
2002 - http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2002/dec/18/noise-threatens-moores-law
2003 - http://news.cnet.com/2100-1008-5112061.html
2005 - http://www.eetimes.com/design/embedded/4025604/The-end-of-Moore-s-law
A law proven to be false isn't a theory, a hypothesis, or even speculation, it's a farce.

My thoughts exactly.

Besides, who cares? It's not as if the ideas present in Moore's "law" has any bearing on our abilities to use and advance processing power. So you reach a physical limit to how small a transistor can be in a practical application within an integrated circuit. No kidding? Really? You mean there's a physical limit to a physical item? How revolutionary! IMHO, I never understood this obsession with Moore's law (maybe 50 years ago, but even to this day--er, rather, a decade ago--it was revered as some mystical power).

An ever-overstated idea based on the linear assumption that our ability to achieve computational power is somehow magically limited to how small of a transistor we can make. Physical limitations on transistor size will not hold back our ability to make more and more powerful processors. Don't limit yourself to the idea that a processor must be composed of an integrated circuit and it completely disregards any idea that Moore came up with. I personally don't care if a processor is composed of an integrated circuit or a few molecules. Computational processing power will continue to advance for quite some time--well beyond when the idea of Moore's Law is some obscure idea that few people would have heard of.
    
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post #33 of 69
i am currently reading the quantum mechanics section in my physics book and my brain is melting.
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post #34 of 69
Sometimes I wonder if Intel is just dragging things out to extend the lifespan of their business, make it seem like they're doing new things all the time when they could have taken much bigger leaps in less time, but have no reason to given the lack of competition.
Like the Olympic athlete who is known for breaking records, why do your best on your first go when you can break your own record by a little bit every event?

Regardless, when Moore's law comes to an end, I have a feeling that won't stop computers from getting better every year at the same rate as they always have. When we hit one limit, we will expand in another area. Also, even if things did stand still for a while, my bet is that pure optimization could keep overall performance progressing decently well for at least a few decades.
post #35 of 69
Not to be funny or anything; this guy is looking more and more like Einstein whenever I see him. I mean it looks like he wanna BE Einstein.
post #36 of 69
As it stands which materials do we have available to us that could replace silicon, and of those which one would last us the longest and which one is the cheapest?
post #37 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by linkdiablo View Post

Funny thing is we already have materials proven to be better than silicon: graphene.
Last I remember from OCN's newsfeed, they had working graphene transistors in lab that had thermo dynamic cooling properties under operation: The CPU cools itself. Now stack layers of transistors one on top of each other and you have: a super cooler?

I heard recently that some college used cotton or something? pretty strange, not gonna bother looking for the article though.

but whatever company decides to move on from silicon I'll be sure to invest in that company ASAP!
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post #38 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by wardoc22 View Post

Not to be funny or anything; this guy is looking more and more like Einstein whenever I see him. I mean it looks like he wanna BE Einstein.

I think he said as much on his interview with The Skeptics Guide to the Universe podcast.
post #39 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by lordikon View Post

Heat problems have been solved through various changes and innovations in the past, I'm sure they'll find a way to do it again so they can keep on shrinking.

Laws of thermodynamics are pretty harsh and ruin all kind of nice ideas like perpetum mobile, for example. You can utilize effects found therein but at some point there is a physical limit and no amount of effort get you past the laws of nature.

I find even 32 and 28 nm unbelievably small tbh. Considering that light we can see is about 450 nm on shorter end. A single hydrogen atom is approx 0.1 nm. We are already in the area where a single transistor is only 1 - 2 million atoms. Thats a very small amount of matter.

Dunno where the limit is but its not rocket science thats it exists.
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post #40 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by linkdiablo View Post

Funny thing is we already have materials proven to be better than silicon: graphene.
Last I remember from OCN's newsfeed, they had working graphene transistors in lab that had thermo dynamic cooling properties under operation: The CPU cools itself. Now stack layers of transistors one on top of each other and you have: a super cooler?

Exactly. Here is a news post from 2008: http://www.overclock.net/t/321381/newsscientist-1nm-carbon-transistor-invented/0_60

Also, I also remember reading something about how a certain kind of graphene transistor was able to utilize the waste heat, therefore cooling the processor.

With graphene transistors the number of transistors that they could pack onto a die will be ridiculous. Silicon may be coming to an end when it comes to making chips, but that doesn't mean that there aren't other materials out there that would keep this "law" from failing.

As for heat issues with these newer chips, the answer is reducing the voltage needed to power these chips. The 3D transistors that Intel are making right now are quite new on the market, and with improved production process I foresee a large drop in the voltage needed to power these chips. This will go a long way in fixing the heat issues.
Edited by AtomicFrost - 5/1/12 at 10:16pm
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