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[Techspot] Physicist predict Moore's Law will collapse in about 10 years - Page 5

post #41 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post

The same prediction has been made every few years for over 10 years now.
2002 - http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2002/dec/18/noise-threatens-moores-law
2003 - http://news.cnet.com/2100-1008-5112061.html
2005 - http://www.eetimes.com/design/embedded/4025604/The-end-of-Moore-s-law
A law proven to be false isn't a theory, a hypothesis, or even speculation, it's a farce.

QTF and +rep to you sir. If "they" cannot follow Moores Law they are simply doing it wrong OR we have came up with tech that make's transistor's obsolete. When that happends I'm positive Moores Law will be modified to include said new tech...
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post #42 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniflex View Post

Laws of thermodynamics are pretty harsh and ruin all kind of nice ideas like perpetum mobile, for example. You can utilize effects found therein but at some point there is a physical limit and no amount of effort get you past the laws of nature.
I find even 32 and 28 nm unbelievably small tbh. Considering that light we can see is about 450 nm on shorter end. A single hydrogen atom is approx 0.1 nm. We are already in the area where a single transistor is only 1 - 2 million atoms. Thats a very small amount of matter.
Dunno where the limit is but its not rocket science thats it exists.

A single transistor is much less than 1-2 million atoms.

Silicon has a diameter of about 222pm (0.222nm) and if we are at 22nm, 22/0.22=100 atoms per transistor.
Quote:
Funny thing is we already have materials proven to be better than silicon: graphene.

Last I remember from OCN's newsfeed, they had working graphene transistors in lab that had thermo dynamic cooling properties under operation: The CPU cools itself. Now stack layers of transistors one on top of each other and you have: a super cooler?

As far as I know, it heats the objects around it but stays cool. Which means it would still be impractical as it would melt every circuit.
post #43 of 69
THE SINGULARITY WILL ARRIVE SOON.

PREPARE YOUR BODIES.
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post #44 of 69
596px-PPTMooresLawai.jpg

yeah.. having to completely redesign the medium through which computation is done hasn't stopped it in the past. don't see it stopping now
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post #45 of 69
Molecular computers sound very interesting. I've watched pretty much all of Michio Kaku's videos and he is something. The way he presents his knowledge is like a song, you can listen to him literally all day.
post #46 of 69
I say Kaku for president! (If you follow him) thumb.gif
post #47 of 69
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post #48 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klinkey View Post

A single transistor is much less than 1-2 million atoms.
Silicon has a diameter of about 222pm (0.222nm) and if we are at 22nm, 22/0.22=100 atoms per transistor.

If that would be true we would already have quantum computers as at only 100 atoms is too small amount for being able to neglect quantum effects. Transistors themselves are a bit larger anyway bcos they have several parts, not only a single 22 nm thingy. Even at ~1 million atoms they are most likely taking into account some quantum effects as this is already really really small amount of matter.

My "quessimate" number was based on 0.1 nm measurement and was intended as a very rough measure of magnitude Ignoring the lattice structure and real size of atoms involved. 320x320x20 ~ 2 million and 220x220x20 ~1 million (negleting the "3D transistors" part as dunno how its done). As these structures are not 1D, they are 2D with thickness of roughly ~20 atoms.
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post #49 of 69
It's interesting...Kaku predicts that the Moore's law will be tweaked to extend its life, but that it would eventually need to be scrapped. This actually makes a lot of sense when you actually consider some of the fundamental properties of electrons. A high energy electron that is very hot will be all over the place making it very difficult to contain and control, and even determine where it is located (due to particles being in multiple places at once). The leakage will be massive unless the chips are cooled to extremely low temperatures.
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post #50 of 69
Does anyone else cringe when you hear Moore's LAW? It's not a LAW.
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