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[PCPer] AMD Q1 2012 Earnings Analysis: Looking Back and Looking Forward...

post #1 of 24
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Quote:
AMD announced their Q1 2012 earnings last week, which turned out better than the previous numbers suggested. The bad news is that they posted a net loss of $590 million. That does sound pretty bad considering that their gross revenue was $1.59 billion, but there is more to the story than meets the eye. Of course, there are thoughts of “those spendthrift executives are burying AMD again”, but this is not the case. The loss lays squarely on the GLOBALFOUNDRIES equity and wafer agreements that have totally been retooled.
Quote:
In non-GAAP terms, AMD actually pulled a $92 million profit for Q1. This shows us that AMD is moving in the right direction in terms of how they are running their company. The big loss was due to the money given to GF, as well as the liquidation of AMD’s stake in that company. In GAAP terms, having a loss of $590 never looks good. But this does appear to be money well spent, and the investment will hopefully pay off in 2013 when AMD releases their 28 nm APUs
Quote:
Looking further ahead we see that AMD will slowly phase out their non-GPU enabled CPUs. AM3+ will get a refresh later this summer with a Vishera based unit that will share silicon with server based products. After that though, AMD will be moving towards APUs exclusively. We can assume that they will do the same for the server side and aggressively promote GPGPU and OpenCL applications for these server based APUs. One of AMD’s goals with GCN is to more tightly knit the CPU and GPU together. This will help simplify development, and in moving towards the future with GCN and later graphics technologies, AMD is hoping to carve out a larger marketshare in not only the traditional notebook/desktop/server spaces, but also in the fast growing mobile space. Expect to see AMD start to push out lower TDP products for tablets and eventually units which can fit into handheld devices. The improved Bobcat architecture can theoretically move into those TDP spaces.

AMD Earnings Source

Hope these future gen APUs really work out for AMD and get us back to the very competitive microprocessor market.
Edited by mikezachlowe2004 - 5/1/12 at 7:05pm
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post #2 of 24
GPU was always more or less competitive

CPU is a flop but APU can justify it's value by moving floating point operations onto GPU core. So you never know where the performance is going to end up.

and AMD now owns the console graphics market.

I think they are focusing on their strength now and moving towards areas where they can be competitive such low power and cloud (recent SeaMicro purchase).

If I had money, I'd buy some AMD shares. May be I can go do some exotic dancing...

oops I've said too much
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post #3 of 24
I see a few holes here.

1) AMD wants to get into the mobile segment. Well to do that they kinda need to be moving on to more power efficient nodes. They won't be < 28 nm for years, so what's their plan? They say Bobcat tcan "theoretically" do this, but Intel would be in a much better position to accomplish this with a more advanced x86 achitecture. So if Intel can't do it then AMD sure can't.

2) They want to use APU's in server GPGPU markets. Great. But why wouldn't a server run a dedicated gpgpu solution at that point. Tesla, Knight's Corner, whatever. Did no one tell them the money makers aren't home brew server boxes running "compromise" APU's?
post #4 of 24
amd is thinking wrong again.they want to put their rotten apple (cpu)with their good apple (gpu) why ?at least force cpu to be the employe gees .same mistake will happen.havent amd learned from the past
post #5 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr/owned View Post

I see a few holes here.
1) AMD wants to get into the mobile segment. Well to do that they kinda need to be moving on to more power efficient nodes. They won't be < 28 nm for years, so what's their plan? They say Bobcat tcan "theoretically" do this, but Intel would be in a much better position to accomplish this with a more advanced x86 achitecture. So if Intel can't do it then AMD sure can't.
2) They want to use APU's in server GPGPU markets. Great. But why wouldn't a server run a dedicated gpgpu solution at that point. Tesla, Knight's Corner, whatever. Did no one tell them the money makers aren't home brew server boxes running "compromise" APU's?
1) Possibly, but we're clearly seeing process node gains shrinking now. It's not even close to twice the performance/watt when moving towards a smaller node. We may also see an ARM + Radeon solution, windows 8 will support ARM and Linux has great ARM support now that Android has been out for a couple of years.

2) Latency matters. It may be faster to calculate a lot of simple tasks on a GPU, but if the latency between the GPU and CPU is longer than the time the CPU needs to process the same calculations, why bother? I'm no programmer though, so I don't know specifics.
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post #6 of 24
This really seems to me like AMD Is trying for a face-saving way to exit the CPU market, because of how badly Bulldozer flopped as compared to expectations.

No, BD isn't horrible, but when it basically constitutes a side-grade from some higher-end Phenom IIs, and is heavily motherboard dependent (did anyone see the benches showing that a Gigabyte 990FX produces ~20% increases in some benches compared to Asus's Crosshair V?), and needs a patch to the OS scheduler for Win7 (this is reminiscent of people needing some kind of patch from MS to work Hyperthreading properly under Windows 2000).....

Well, it starts to remind me of the car that will only start if you wiggle the steering wheel, pump the gas once, jiggle the key just right in the ignitiion, and then it turns over.

Servers? Ha. Good luck.

Too many people now specify Intel only for their server systems because they hear about AMD flopping here, there and everywhere, but Intel continues to turn out high-speed, quality products that always work as advertised (which includes running very fast) - well, it's a no-brainer.

Opterons are good, but I never see them advertised anywhere.
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post #7 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arni90 View Post

1) Possibly, but we're clearly seeing process node gains shrinking now. It's not even close to twice the performance/watt when moving towards a smaller node. We may also see an ARM + Radeon solution, windows 8 will support ARM and Linux has great ARM support now that Android has been out for a couple of years.
2) Latency matters. It may be faster to calculate a lot of simple tasks on a GPU, but if the latency between the GPU and CPU is longer than the time the CPU needs to process the same calculations, why bother? I'm no programmer though, so I don't know specifics.

You sound like you know more than the other guy wink.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quantum Reality View Post

This really seems to me like AMD Is trying for a face-saving way to exit the CPU market, because of how badly Bulldozer flopped as compared to expectations.
No, BD isn't horrible, but when it basically constitutes a side-grade from some higher-end Phenom IIs, and is heavily motherboard dependent (did anyone see the benches showing that a Gigabyte 990FX produces ~20% increases in some benches compared to Asus's Crosshair V?), and needs a patch to the OS scheduler for Win7 (this is reminiscent of people needing some kind of patch from MS to work Hyperthreading properly under Windows 2000).....
Well, it starts to remind me of the car that will only start if you wiggle the steering wheel, pump the gas once, jiggle the key just right in the ignitiion, and then it turns over.
Servers? Ha. Good luck.
Too many people now specify Intel only for their server systems because they hear about AMD flopping here, there and everywhere, but Intel continues to turn out high-speed, quality products that always work as advertised (which includes running very fast) - well, it's a no-brainer.
Opterons are good, but I never see them advertised anywhere.

So moving to APU's signals leaving the CPU market. I guess Intel is leaving too right, since they have HD2000, HD3000, and HD4000 on most of their CPU's.

Also to many, IB is a side grade to SB. Depending on how you look at it.

Silly car story is silly.

The part about people only using Intels. If this were the case, why would anyone use AMD? With the budgets and needs these companies have, buying from a company they like rather than what makes sense for them, doesn't happen. With a comment like that I don't think you know much of anything about how IT departments and servers work. So I won't waste any more time.
I see Opterons advertised on lots of sites. Hm.. perhaps its just your luck. I personally don't see many Dell ads, yet my parents complain about how many Dell ads they see.


OT. AMD is on the right track. Can't wait to see the Earnings Analysis for the quarter after Trinity releases. Looking good AMD.
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post #8 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuell View Post

So moving to APU's signals leaving the CPU market. I guess Intel is leaving too right, since they have HD2000, HD3000, and HD4000 on most of their CPU's.

Also to many, IB is a side grade to SB. Depending on how you look at it.

The part about people only using Intels. If this were the case, why would anyone use AMD? With the budgets and needs these companies have, buying from a company they like rather than what makes sense for them, doesn't happen. With a comment like that I don't think you know much of anything about how IT departments and servers work. So I won't waste any more time.
I see Opterons advertised on lots of sites. Hm.. perhaps its just your luck. I personally don't see many Dell ads, yet my parents complain about how many Dell ads they see.

-May be hard to believe, but not everyone is running SB. *gasp*. So the "side grade" comment isn't really relevant. IB is going to sell like a mofo, just like every other generation before it.

-I've yet to ever use a public computer that was AMD powered. All the libraries, universities, high schools, middle schools, elementary schools, engineering firms I've interned at - every computer I've seen which is probably in the thousands - all Intel. AMD powered servers? laugher.gif . Last I saw Intel had 93% of that market all sewn up.

-Even if you remove the "we spent money trying to save money down the road", they still had crappy profit of 50 mil. That's nothing if you want to be a big player when Intel is standing next to you.
post #9 of 24
I just don't understand how AMD has all three console makers under their belt and they still aren't making a cent?!
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post #10 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Domino View Post

I just don't understand how AMD has all three console makers under their belt and they still aren't making a cent?!

They had to pay 800 million or something to sever their relationship with global foundries. It is mentioned in the article.
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