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In the last few months, two massive switch-ups have called the future of OEMs into question: First, Google bought Motorola — and second, come October 26, Microsoft will sell its first ever home-grown computer: The Surface tablet.
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The enormity of these two developments can’t be understated. For almost as long as Microsoft has existed, OEMs have ridden its coattails and made hundreds of billions of dollars in the process. Last year, more than 350 million Windows PCs were sold — all of them produced by OEMs. IBM, which launched the original PC, was buoyed by Microsoft software until it sold out to Lenovo — which is now the second largest PC maker in the world. Compaq and Dell both started their lives as producers of IBM PC clones, running MS-DOS. There are probably hundreds of OEMs that owe their existence to Microsoft’s software.
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If the Surface tablet is a success — and with its design, specs, price point, and Microsoft’s marketing dollars, you have to assume it will be — then I think we can say goodbye to the OEM PC market. HP and Dell will live on, selling enterprise hardware and support, but their PC divisions will be shut down — or perhaps sold off to Lenovo. Perhaps Lenovo can subsist at the bottom end of the market, or maybe it too will shut up shop.
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