Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Technology and Science News › [TH]Wright's Law is More Accurate Than Moore's Law
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

[TH]Wright's Law is More Accurate Than Moore's Law

post #1 of 33
Thread Starter 
Quote:
...Instead of Moore's prediction that the transistor count in a certain space doubles every 18 to 24 months, Wright's prediction is based on the emergence of volume production and can be translated to state that the cost of transistors is halved every 1.4 years. In conclusion, Wright's Law is slightly more accurate as a predictive tool than Moore's Law. The researchers also looked at Goddard's Law (drop in price due to greater productivity), Nardhaus’ Synthesis (combines elements of Moore's Law and Wright's Law) as well as Sinclair, Klepper and Cohen’s Synthesis (combines Wright's Law and Goddard's Law), but none of them was as accurate as both Wright's Law and Moore's Law...

Source
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
post #2 of 33
I never understood why these "laws" even exist. You can hardly call them laws--to me they are simply observations...
post #3 of 33
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiasian View Post

I never understood why these "laws" even exist. You can hardly call them laws--to me they are simply observations...

Textbook prediction models and correlations. Like any other models/laws in any field, they provide a basis for fundamentals and extrapolation.
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
post #4 of 33
So they are there to follow or to predict? Are transistors doubled based on the law or the flow of technology or simply the technology i trying to keep up based of the code of the law?
Ishimura
(21 items)
 
Silent Knight
(13 items)
 
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel Core i7 3770K @ 4.6GHz ASRock Z77E-ITX eVGA GTX 1080 Ti Hybrid AMD Radeon R9 16GB DDR3-2400MHz  
Hard DriveHard DriveCoolingCooling
SanDisk Ultra II 960GB Toshiba X300 5TB Corsair H100i GTX eVGA Hybrid Water Cooler  
CoolingOSMonitorKeyboard
4x GentleTyphoon AP-15 Windows 10 Pro 64-Bit Philips Brilliance BDM4065UC 4K Razer BlackWidow Chroma  
PowerCaseMouseMouse Pad
eVGA SuperNOVA 750 G3 Define Nano S Logitech G502 Proteus Core PECHAM Gaming Mouse Pad XX-Large 
AudioAudioAudioAudio
Audioengine D1 DAC Mackie CR Series CR3 Audio-Technica ATH-M50 Sennheiser HD 598 
Audio
Sony XB950BT 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
AMD Phenom II X4 955 @ 4.2GHz ASUS M4A79XTD EVO AMD Radeon HD 7970 3GB @ 1200/1500 2x 4GB G.SKILL Ripjaws X DDR3-1600 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveCooling
OCZ Agility 3 60GB WD Caviar Green 1.5TB 2 x Seagate Barracuda 2TB XSPC Raystorm 
CoolingCoolingOSPower
EK-FC7970 XSPC RS360 Windows 10 Pro 64-Bit Corsair TX750 
Case
NZXT Switch 810  
  hide details  
Reply
Ishimura
(21 items)
 
Silent Knight
(13 items)
 
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel Core i7 3770K @ 4.6GHz ASRock Z77E-ITX eVGA GTX 1080 Ti Hybrid AMD Radeon R9 16GB DDR3-2400MHz  
Hard DriveHard DriveCoolingCooling
SanDisk Ultra II 960GB Toshiba X300 5TB Corsair H100i GTX eVGA Hybrid Water Cooler  
CoolingOSMonitorKeyboard
4x GentleTyphoon AP-15 Windows 10 Pro 64-Bit Philips Brilliance BDM4065UC 4K Razer BlackWidow Chroma  
PowerCaseMouseMouse Pad
eVGA SuperNOVA 750 G3 Define Nano S Logitech G502 Proteus Core PECHAM Gaming Mouse Pad XX-Large 
AudioAudioAudioAudio
Audioengine D1 DAC Mackie CR Series CR3 Audio-Technica ATH-M50 Sennheiser HD 598 
Audio
Sony XB950BT 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
AMD Phenom II X4 955 @ 4.2GHz ASUS M4A79XTD EVO AMD Radeon HD 7970 3GB @ 1200/1500 2x 4GB G.SKILL Ripjaws X DDR3-1600 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveCooling
OCZ Agility 3 60GB WD Caviar Green 1.5TB 2 x Seagate Barracuda 2TB XSPC Raystorm 
CoolingCoolingOSPower
EK-FC7970 XSPC RS360 Windows 10 Pro 64-Bit Corsair TX750 
Case
NZXT Switch 810  
  hide details  
Reply
post #5 of 33
I just found out that Wright's Law was originally used to determine the price of airplanes. It seems that it may be more accurate because it's directly related to the production volume of the product in question.
post #6 of 33
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZealotKi11er View Post

So they are there to follow or to predict? Are transistors doubled based on the law or the flow of technology or simply the technology i trying to keep up based of the code of the law?

Both prediction and premise(follow). Transistors are doubled based the flow of tech, and laws are simply observations/theories based on repeatable experiments/correlation.... Not the other way around(tech keeping up with law).

Curiously, many if not all models are too "perfect" as real life situations can be more dynamic and are more a marker or starting point of relative data to reach a supporting/not supported conclusion.
Edited by Blindrage606 - 9/3/12 at 8:28pm
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
post #7 of 33
These are theories, not laws. A law is proven and has no exceptions. It's obvious Moore's Law has been broken.
post #8 of 33
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doomtomb View Post

These are theories, not laws. A law is proven and has no exceptions. It's obvious Moore's Law has been broken.

Meh. Not really. Proven does not mean the same thing as ALWAYS true... More accurately, that it is supported under constrained variables. One can never say that a law is indefinably correct(think quant physics)but only that it is SUPPORTED.

And no, Moore's law is not incorrect but rather a more accurate model depicting RL trends is viable. Moore's law still holds true, currently.
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
 
Alienware 13
(10 items)
 
Alienware Alpha
(6 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel i7 4770k @4.0Ghz MSI Z87 G65 EVGA 980Ti Classified+EVGA 660SC PhysX G.Skill Trident X 16GB @2400Mhz 
Hard DriveCoolingOSMonitor
Corsair 480GB+1TB WD Black Corsair H100 W10 Pro|Start10 U2713HM+U22 LED+ACz1 Mount 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
RealForce 87U 55g  Corsair HX1050 Corsair 650D Razer DeathAdder+Firefly 
Audio
STX+SP2500, Asgard 2+HD650 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 6500U nVidia GTX 960m OC Samsung 16GB 1.35v M.2 850 EVO 500GB+1TB WD 
OSMonitorKeyboard
W10|Start 10 IPS 4k, Touch Alienware FX 
CPUGraphicsRAMHard Drive
Intel i7 4785T @3.2Ghz 8MB nVidia 860m OC vBIOS mod HyperX Impact 16GB DDR3 256GB Samsung SSD+1TB HDD 
OSAudio
W10|Start 10 DragonFly v1.2 
  hide details  
Reply
post #9 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doomtomb View Post

These are theories, not laws. A law is proven and has no exceptions. It's obvious Moore's Law has been broken.


Law can be broken

We can call something "Overclock.net Law" if we want.. we just need to make something up such as....


Overclock.net Law - A law in which visitors comes and visit this site at a rate of 2 visitor per second
My Next Gen Rig
(17 items)
 
  
Reply
My Next Gen Rig
(17 items)
 
  
Reply
post #10 of 33
Wrights law.
Moores law.
OCN law.

I prefer the OCN law: the pursuit of performance.
    
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
3970X Rampage IV Formula EVGA 980Ti SC+ w/ACX BP Corsair Dominator Platinum 1866mhz 16GB 9-11-10-27 
Hard DriveCoolingCoolingOS
3.2TB Samsung/Corsair SSD's Corsair H100i Corsair Air Series SP120 Quiet Edition x2 Win7 64bit 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
2xAcer 23" 1080P  Corsair K70 Black (Red LED's) Corsair AX1200i Corsair 760T 
MouseAudioAudioAudio
Corsair M60 Sennheiser HD600 Corsair Void RGB Xonar Essence One 
Other
Corsair sleeved Cables (Red) 
  hide details  
Reply
    
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
3970X Rampage IV Formula EVGA 980Ti SC+ w/ACX BP Corsair Dominator Platinum 1866mhz 16GB 9-11-10-27 
Hard DriveCoolingCoolingOS
3.2TB Samsung/Corsair SSD's Corsair H100i Corsair Air Series SP120 Quiet Edition x2 Win7 64bit 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
2xAcer 23" 1080P  Corsair K70 Black (Red LED's) Corsair AX1200i Corsair 760T 
MouseAudioAudioAudio
Corsair M60 Sennheiser HD600 Corsair Void RGB Xonar Essence One 
Other
Corsair sleeved Cables (Red) 
  hide details  
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Technology and Science News
Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Technology and Science News › [TH]Wright's Law is More Accurate Than Moore's Law