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[ars]Italian scientists convicted of manslaughter for earthquake risk report - Page 4

post #31 of 89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Killer View Post

maybe those scientists promised or guaranteed something that can't be predictable. the scientists who signed the contracts will be held accountable according to the wording used.
this happens to doctors quite often and why malpractice insurance is mandatory. a doctor will slip out something like "yes, she will get better with time. guaranteed." to the patient's relatives. that patient then dies a day later from complications during something simple as a splenectomy. that doctor is then liable for promising something that's impossible to predict.
so nope, i don't feel bad about this.

Despite them saying that they didn't think an earthquake was likely, they still stated that the preparations for an earthquake were inadequate and changes needed to be made. I don't see any scientist in seismology stating categorically that an earthquake wouldn't/couldn't happen (let alone a group of them all saying the same thing).

It seems more of a knee-jerk reaction (perhaps the judge was affected by the earthquake as the sentence was harsher than what the prosecutor asked for). The "equal and opposite reaction" of the scientific community will undoubtedly trend toward considering a move or qualifying every statement until it's usefulness is lost in the verbiage.
post #32 of 89
Wow... so their being put in jail for making a wrong prediction on mother nature? This is just absurd
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post #33 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by SGT. Peppers View Post

Wow... so their being put in jail for making a wrong prediction on mother nature? This is just absurd

Maybe.

But it seems more likely that they were put in jail for falsifying results upon request of the people cutting their paychecks.
post #34 of 89
I will do the next report for them.

There will be a huge earthquake and the whole of Italy will fall into the ocean.

That is what they are going to get from now on. There was likely no solid evidence that anything bad was going to happen. Why cause a panic if you had no reason to. "Solid evidence" is hard to come by when dealing with natural disasters anyway. Even if they had something that concerned them that they left out of the report...it isn't 1+1= a natural disaster. Had they screamed the sky is falling they likely would have been ignored anyway.

Gosh, I hope they have appeals in Italy.
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post #35 of 89
What's next putting the weatherman in jail for predicting sunshine and instead it rains killing 10 people in auto accidents?
post #36 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerPowered View Post

What's next putting the weatherman in jail for predicting sunshine and instead it rains killing 10 people in auto accidents?
Don't give them any ideas.
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post #37 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by b3machi7ke View Post

That is outrageous. "Because you failed to predict the unpredictable we sentence you to prison for 6 years". wth.gif

I can rest assured now knowing the world IS crazy!wha-smiley.png
Edited by aweir - 10/22/12 at 2:05pm
post #38 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerPowered View Post

What's next putting the weatherman in jail for predicting sunshine and instead it rains killing 10 people in auto accidents?

And when they predict cloudy day but it turns out to be sunny, people can sue them for getting sunburn. My GOD people have lost their minds!
post #39 of 89
Omg, you have to be so ignorant of earthquakes to release a statement claiming that "smaller earthquakes release tension / reduce the chance for a bigger earthquake"...this is proper for news anchor grade silly commentators but please...a 6.3 magnitude earthquake is a BIG earthquake. Maybe not for the west coast of US, but for the Mediterranean geology it is.

You can play around with that, but in the ballpark a 6.3 quake is releasing around 2,800x the energy a 4.0 earthquake does...so yeah, if we had 2800 4.0 earthquakes during the past few months and we knew that this fault historically haven't given a quake more than 6 or so, we would say it will probably take some time till the next one...but...that's improbable (to say the least) + our databases/logs on earthquakes are a joke - even in Italy where people inhabited over the last 3,000 years virtually continuously, and this kind of geologic engineering has been around for very little time.

I work in the architecture field, and knowing of old structures etc - the kind of structures that got people killed - I would say there is no way to hold the seismologists accounted for the failure.: the person responsible - if any - would be the structural engineer / architect signing the plans for a new building construction and/or renovation for an older structure. If those were up to specs as set by the geologists in the national building code of that country/for that area, then maybe the prosecutor in the engineering / architecture trial would call the seismologists to testify and could find them liable, but in this particular case, how can anyone be liable for structures designed and build centuries ago?

Ofc if someone is asked to issue a blanket statement on the safety of a region, has to have some short of reference, guess modern building code standards, and even then - as these scientists properly did - they do allow for the probability of an unpredictable outcome. Nature is unpredictable, and so are all old structures that have been sitting there for all this time. The fact that those survived X earthquakes, means nothing for their structural integrity, which gets undermined after each impact and might give in due to the next.

Too bad to be treated like a scapegoat for something that really could not have been predicted...
Wonder what should have happened to the scientists and politicians involved in the New Orleans / Louisiana floods etc , if the above is punishable with 6 years in prison...
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post #40 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtolios View Post

Omg, you have to be so ignorant of earthquakes to release a statement claiming that "smaller earthquakes release tension / reduce the chance for a bigger earthquake"...this is proper for news anchor grade silly commentators but please...a 6.3 magnitude earthquake is a BIG earthquake. Maybe not for the west coast of US, but for the Mediterranean geology it is.

You can play around with that, but in the ballpark a 6.3 quake is releasing around 2,800x the energy a 4.0 earthquake does...so yeah, if we had 2800 4.0 earthquakes during the past few months and we knew that this fault historically haven't given a quake more than 6 or so, we would say it will probably take some time till the next one...but...that's improbable (to say the least) + our databases/logs on earthquakes are a joke - even in Italy where people inhabited over the last 3,000 years virtually continuously, and this kind of geologic engineering has been around for very little time.

I work in the architecture field, and knowing of old structures etc - the kind of structures that got people killed - I would say there is no way to hold the seismologists accounted for the failure.: the person responsible - if any - would be the structural engineer / architect signing the plans for a new building construction and/or renovation for an older structure. If those were up to specs as set by the geologists in the national building code of that country/for that area, then maybe the prosecutor in the engineering / architecture trial would call the seismologists to testify and could find them liable, but in this particular case, how can anyone be liable for structures designed and build centuries ago?

Ofc if someone is asked to issue a blanket statement on the safety of a region, has to have some short of reference, guess modern building code standards, and even then - as these scientists properly did - they do allow for the probability of an unpredictable outcome. Nature is unpredictable, and so are all old structures that have been sitting there for all this time. The fact that those survived X earthquakes, means nothing for their structural integrity, which gets undermined after each impact and might give in due to the next.

Too bad to be treated like a scapegoat for something that really could not have been predicted...
Wonder what should have happened to the scientists and politicians involved in the New Orleans / Louisiana floods etc , if the above is punishable with 6 years in prison...
This, this, this, this.
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