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[U. of Tex] Hdd Memory Could Increase Fivefold From UT Research - Page 5

post #41 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by 47 Knucklehead View Post

Bring back the double height, 5.25" hard drives!
I mean we all don't have much of an issue putting a pump/reservoir in our drive bays that size in our Desktops, why not just make a one petabyte hard drive in a larger size. devil.gif

Oh god, the failure rate of those would be astronomical. How many platters/heads would fit in that? The current quality of HDDs is some of the lowest in over 20 years. That's part of the reason they shortened warranties.
post #42 of 57
The quality of HDDs has improved a lot. They last way longer than they used to, and they're quieter, and use less energy.

I also think that SSDs will be over 1GB at affordable prices in 2 years. The prices have dropped so quickly recently for 128 GB SSDs and now even 256 GB SSDs. A lot of 256 GB SSDs are starting to be under $200, and a lot of 128 GB SSDs are under $100, which is pretty impressive in under a year, they used to be close to $150 unless you got a good deal. Prices dropped a lot starting with the summer.
Edited by iEATu - 11/18/12 at 8:39pm
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post #43 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by KyadCK View Post

Well, for one thing, Tape has a longer shelf life then HDDs do in terms of keeping data. In the enterprise world, it was never labeled dead for backups, it was labeled dead as a normal storage medium.
Two, if every company "worried about the now", they would definitely be as dead as I claim. That is the single worst argument you could possibly bring to any argument about the future of computer tech.
Three, the argument you came up with was that 4k would be affordable in 5 years. Thus the comparison is for 5 years from now. What good is quoting current prices at me?
Also, wow, you are incredibly optimistic with that thinking on SSDs. If you know something about the future, then go buy some lotto tickets. Not only is your argument just as speculated as mine, It has less base in reality. Come back when you have numbers, because if you think the likes of WesternDigital and Seagate are just going to roll over, die, and let SSDs make HDDs completely obsolete, you've got another thing coming.
And just one last time, I never said HDDs are dying, I said innovation for HDDs is dying. If anything, your latest post is the closest anyone has come to saying they're dead, as you just labeled them dead in 5 years. Get your head out of your ass and read.

I already proved to you that your theory about HDD innovation dying is flawed.

IBM Brains Turn 12 Atoms Into World’s Smallest Storage Bit

HGST Demonstrates 7-Platter Helium Hard Drive Platform

and The OP

HDD innovation looking pretty healthy to me.

I'm not optimistic about SSDs, I based my predictions on current SSD pricing trends. I bought my first OCZ Vertex 120GB for $350 3 years ago and now 120GB can be had for less than $100 and that all happened in less than 5 years. Being able to buy a 1-2TB SSD within the next 5 years for the current price of a 128GB SSD is a very safe bet. I'm sure everyone here would agree, with the exception of you of course. rolleyes.gif

Before jumping the gun next time and labeling someone's predictions as "baseless in reality" get your facts straight.
Edited by gEEKaDE - 11/18/12 at 9:04pm
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post #44 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by gEEKaDE View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by KyadCK View Post

Well, for one thing, Tape has a longer shelf life then HDDs do in terms of keeping data. In the enterprise world, it was never labeled dead for backups, it was labeled dead as a normal storage medium.
Two, if every company "worried about the now", they would definitely be as dead as I claim. That is the single worst argument you could possibly bring to any argument about the future of computer tech.
Three, the argument you came up with was that 4k would be affordable in 5 years. Thus the comparison is for 5 years from now. What good is quoting current prices at me?
Also, wow, you are incredibly optimistic with that thinking on SSDs. If you know something about the future, then go buy some lotto tickets. Not only is your argument just as speculated as mine, It has less base in reality. Come back when you have numbers, because if you think the likes of WesternDigital and Seagate are just going to roll over, die, and let SSDs make HDDs completely obsolete, you've got another thing coming.
And just one last time, I never said HDDs are dying, I said innovation for HDDs is dying. If anything, your latest post is the closest anyone has come to saying they're dead, as you just labeled them dead in 5 years. Get your head out of your ass and read.

I already proved to you that your theory about HDD innovation dying is flawed.

IBM Brains Turn 12 Atoms Into World’s Smallest Storage Bit

HGST Demonstrates 7-Platter Helium Hard Drive Platform

and The OP

HDD innovation looking pretty healthy to me.

I'm not optimistic about SSDs, I based my predictions on current SSD pricing trends. I bought my first OCZ Vertex 120GB for $350 3 years ago and now 120GB can be had for less than $100 and that all happened in less than 5 years. Being able to buy a 1-2TB SSD within the next 5 years for the current price of a 128GB SSD is a very safe bet. I'm sure everyone here would agree, with the exception of you of course. rolleyes.gif

Before jumping the gun next time and labeling someone's predictions as "baseless in reality" get your facts straight.

IBM also made a Graphene CPU that runs at 155Ghz and is integrating microchannels into the CPU die for watercooled servers. IBM research is a decade or more before it's time, as always.

The others are also completely up for grabs on how long it will take to get them implemented. None of this has been done in anything retail, or promises to be. Of course, if you actually read my first port, you would know how far apart these gaps are, and thus what my claim is based on. These also do nothing for speed (besides maybe more platters), which you still think has nothing to do with anything.

And alright, current trends... Drop of about 66% pricing in 3 years. Ok, I'll buy that. Too bad 1TB drives are $2250 compared to last year's $2552. Down 12%. Even following a constant 12% drop in price, that would make it $1533 in 3 years.

For that 1TB drive to cost the same as 128GB drives do today means it would need to drop to 4.5% it's current value. At a constant drop of 12%, that is about 24 years. This is unreasonable, so how about we just say it drops $300 per year? Well then in 7 years it will be worth about $150.

To meet your expectations, the 1TB drive would have to drop in price at a rate of 55-60% per year from what it is now.

But ya, it'll totally be $100 in 5 years. Keep thinking that. rolleyes.gif

If you had said 512GB drives, which are actually under a grand, that would be far more believable, but you chose 1-2TB for some reason.
Edited by KyadCK - 11/18/12 at 9:28pm
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post #45 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by iEATu View Post

I dont see the point of having huge hard drives. Even with 500 GB they get pretty slow when it gets filled up. I can only see hard drives as good for backup.

My 3TB is still going fast enough for me at least, I haven't noticed it getting slow.(532GB spare)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonky Sausage View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by 47 Knucklehead View Post

Bring back the double height, 5.25" hard drives!
I mean we all don't have much of an issue putting a pump/reservoir in our drive bays that size in our Desktops, why not just make a one petabyte hard drive in a larger size. devil.gif

Oh god, the failure rate of those would be astronomical. How many platters/heads would fit in that? The current quality of HDDs is some of the lowest in over 20 years. That's part of the reason they shortened warranties.

It's a shame, eh? 20MB HDD with ten times as many parts while being a million times as primitive also lasts ten times as longer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iEATu View Post

The quality of HDDs has improved a lot. They last way longer than they used to, and they're quieter, and use less energy.

The last two are right, but the first one certainly isn't. There are plenty of 20MB drives that still run, yet a lot of 20GB drives are dead.
    
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post #46 of 57
Thread Starter 
Yea I have not noticed any slowdowns with my 3TB filling up but I certainly don't know. Also I'm glad hdd prices are falling back to or below flood prices.
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post #47 of 57
if its 5 times more dense does that mean the HDD read/write times should see performance increases in the same exponential curve?
 
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post #48 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by gEEKaDE View Post

Then again, seeing how you used Octane drives as an example, maybe you prefer to overpay for things. applaud.gif

lachen.gif
post #49 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spritanium View Post

I can't even fill up 1TB.
This will be useful for servers, though. One HDD fitting five HDD's worth of data sounds awesome.

a very high quality 1080p blu-ray movie could easily hit 10GB each
FLAC encoded music especially if you have thousands of them eats up space
Games now-a-days are also getting bigger and bigger in size especially if you install mods like HD textures and stuff

I also always make a backup ISO of my DVD's/CD's/Bluray

Recording gameplay footage or offloading footage from an HD Camcoder also takes up huges amounts of spaces

heck, 3TB is not even enough for my regular files, not even for backups
Quote:
Originally Posted by KyadCK View Post

*shrugs* add more platters. Laptop drives can fit 1TB. 3.5" drive platters are much bigger, and you can fit more of them.
Basicly they needed a new way to pack the bits closer together. Did it really take them several years to find this new way?
I'm not normally a conspiracy person, but between the flood, lack of innovation, and continued high-pricing, looks like "people" are pushing for SSDs, which become faster, larger, more reliable and cheaper by the day.

The other bad news is after running through our client test suite and preparing the drive for a run through our enterprise suite, our pre-production sample died. This isn't the first time we've had an SSD die during our test process,



In a few days, I managed to write a total of 37.8TB to the NAND and during that time, the MWI had dropped from 92 to 79. In other words, I used up 13% of the drive's available P/E cycles. This is far from being good news. Based on the data I gathered, the MWI would hit 0 after around 250TB of NAND writes, which translates to less than 1,000 P/E cycles.
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post #50 of 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by gEEKaDE View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by KyadCK View Post

IBM also made a Graphene CPU that runs at 155Ghz and is integrating microchannels into the CPU die for watercooled servers. IBM research is a decade or more before it's time, as always.
The others are also completely up for grabs on how long it will take to get them implemented. None of this has been done in anything retail, or promises to be. Of course, if you actually read my first port, you would know how far apart these gaps are, and thus what my claim is based on. These also do nothing for speed (besides maybe more platters), which you still think has nothing to do with anything.
And alright, current trends... Drop of about 66% pricing in 3 years. Ok, I'll buy that. Too bad 1TB drives are $2250 compared to last year's $2552. Down 12%. Even following a constant 12% drop in price, that would make it $1533 in 3 years.
For that 1TB drive to cost the same as 128GB drives do today means it would need to drop to 4.5% it's current value. At a constant drop of 12%, that is about 24 years. This is unreasonable, so how about we just say it drops $300 per year? Well then in 7 years it will be worth about $150.
To meet your expectations, the 1TB drive would have to drop in price at a rate of 55-60% per year from what it is now.
But ya, it'll totally be $100 in 5 years. Keep thinking that. rolleyes.gif

Someone give this guy some math skills please. 1TB for $2250? Don't know if you're intentionally using Octane drives to prove a flawed point or if you're really that gullible and believe that you need to spend $2250 to achieve 1TB of SSD storage. kookoo.gif

OCZ Vertex 4 512GB costs $389.99 on Amazon so 1TB costs $779.98 in 2012. Even if you do math poorly, in 5 years, 1TB SSD storage costing the price of today's 128GB SSDs is well within range.

Then again, seeing how you used Octane drives as an example, maybe you prefer to overpay for things. applaud.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by KyadCK View Post

If you had said 512GB drives, which are actually under a grand, that would be far more believable…

Don't know what planet you're from but,

AMAZON - OCZ 512GB Vertex 4 - $389.99

It's well under a grand, actually it's well under $500. rolleyes.gif

mmm... So find me a different 1TB SSD. One that is cheaper. If you can.

Or even better, prove my math wrong.

Put up or shut up, because you literally based your "facts" on nothing this time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raclimja View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spritanium View Post

I can't even fill up 1TB.
This will be useful for servers, though. One HDD fitting five HDD's worth of data sounds awesome.

a very high quality 1080p blu-ray movie could easily hit 10GB each
FLAC encoded music especially if you have thousands of them eats up space
Games now-a-days are also getting bigger and bigger in size especially if you install mods like HD textures and stuff

I also always make a backup ISO of my DVD's/CD's/Bluray

Recording gameplay footage or offloading footage from an HD Camcoder also takes up huges amounts of spaces

heck, 3TB is not even enough for my regular files, not even for backups
Quote:
Originally Posted by KyadCK View Post

*shrugs* add more platters. Laptop drives can fit 1TB. 3.5" drive platters are much bigger, and you can fit more of them.
Basicly they needed a new way to pack the bits closer together. Did it really take them several years to find this new way?
I'm not normally a conspiracy person, but between the flood, lack of innovation, and continued high-pricing, looks like "people" are pushing for SSDs, which become faster, larger, more reliable and cheaper by the day.

The other bad news is after running through our client test suite and preparing the drive for a run through our enterprise suite, our pre-production sample died. This isn't the first time we've had an SSD die during our test process,



In a few days, I managed to write a total of 37.8TB to the NAND and during that time, the MWI had dropped from 92 to 79. In other words, I used up 13% of the drive's available P/E cycles. This is far from being good news. Based on the data I gathered, the MWI would hit 0 after around 250TB of NAND writes, which translates to less than 1,000 P/E cycles.

Youch that sucks. And on an Intel no less. At least it has a good warranty?

As for the Samsung, it's unfortunate to hear, but random deaths do happen from time to time. Unless it was a write-cycle death, sometimes it just happens. I can understand how that would be a serious problem for reviewing, and It's a serious shame that two of the best SSD makers on the block did so poorly.

My own Crucial M4...


Is still going strong, despite several re-installs, wipes, data movement, etc. Granted, I'm not putting almost 40TB of data through it a week, but for what it is (now a "game drive") It should live for a long time to come.

Do I expect it to outlive my old IDE133 160Gb Maxtor? Probably not, that thing is a tank. Do I think it will survive a "nomal user's" computer's lifetime? ya. I also think they are much better now then when SSDs first came around, though we may have hit the top of the bell curve.
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Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Technology and Science News › [U. of Tex] Hdd Memory Could Increase Fivefold From UT Research