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2013 Chimp Challenge Discussions - Page 7

post #61 of 169
Just to acssess a few issues (sorry for lack of quotes, working from Mobile here):

CC Badges: I'm currently working with ENTERPRISE & Huddler about a new badge system that would allow Editors to submit badge requests and then higher-ups just have to approve them. This would take a huge workload off the higher-ups and free up their time to focus on important things and help with getting badges done more quickly and efficiently.

CC Stats site: Public vs. Private is definitely a valid issue. I would have no problem hosting a live stats site over at http://folding.axihub.ca, I already have a test server running at home that successfully pulls stats for multiple teams and can display them all independently of each other. I'm just working on modifying the existing website codebase to allow for an easier way of accessing multiple team stats and optimizing the database itself. I don't mind hosting it at all and could give the Captains access to the database storing the stats to ensure that all the results are 100% correct. The Public system used last year can still be used as well for the official results with my stats site being used simply as a live version with hourly updates.

CC Rule changes: I would love to see this stuff get figured out sooner rather than later so we can then focus on getting the even organized and get some extra advertising underway.
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post #62 of 169
Quote:
Originally Posted by juano View Post

I think if we're talking about getting H back into the CC (which again I would love) and we're talking multiple winners, then to me the best solution would be H and EVGA fighting for top tier in straight points, OCN and OCF fighting for tier two in straight points, and then I don't actually know how close the other teams are to each other or if they would need handicaps. I would be really psyched for EVGA vs H and OCN vs OCF, I think those would both be really close and hard fought match-ups and they wouldn't require any sort of handicapping IMO so they could just run as straight point battles.

This also makes me think that a tournament format could be possible, where handicaps could be determined based on match-ups instead of having to accommodate every team at all times.

This is a great idea, that has been brought up before - I really like it, but not as a part of the overall race - instead make it a "challenge" kind of race,

OK, an example:

OCF and OCN are both in the CC. That goes forward, as per the regular rules, etc.

But now you challenge OCF to a one-on-one race, for say, 3 days.

At the start of our challenge race, we set your points to zero for this race purpose. We calculate OCF's handicap points based on average (form CC last year maybe), and OCF starts out with say 20,000 challenge race points. (Real CC race points are never changed, of course).

Now to win the challenge race, OCN needs to have more challenge race points (which now will be simply raw folding points), than OCF has, at the finish line of our challenge race.

Start of the race:
Code:
zero                    20k                          10Million pts Finish Line
===============================================================================

OCN (1st day)  * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *|
                         OCF (1st day) * * * * * * * * * * * * * *|   


So initially, it looks like OCF should win, easily, but that's just the handicap. It's like you were in a foot race with Usain Bolt - to handicap it correctly, you'd have to have your starting blocks moved up closer to the finish line.

Winner gets a challenge little star on any plaque or trophy they win? Something. No bright idea on this just now.
Edited by Adak - 2/19/13 at 11:31am
post #63 of 169
I'll play..

No über computer bit lots of time away from it and a second that I can use while the MP is folding.
 
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post #64 of 169
I still haven't got the CC badge from 2012...what gives?
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post #65 of 169
I'm definitely in for the CC this year again
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post #66 of 169
It is a tough decision on how to properly score and handicap each team in the CC, as the winners wont mind the system in the end but everyone else who might have lost but submitted a huge amount of points get irritated and call it a stupid system.

Theres also the problem of overcomplicated handicaps that dont seem to make much sense to anyone apart from the person who made it.
post #67 of 169
Simplification comes *after* you know something well, rarely before.

Last year, it was difficult to get agreement on a lot of issues.

Take an example:

Say OCN and OCF have a race for 3 days. The whole team vs. the whole team.

OCN earns 14 Million pts /day for a total of 42 Million (raw) pts.

OCF earns 13 Million pts/day for a total of 39 Million (raw) pts.


Now to handicap and see who won the most race pts:

OCN's average is 14.1 Million ppd

OCF's average is 13.45 Million ppd.

So the handicap ration is 14.1 / 13.45 or 1.048, in favor of OCF.

So
OCN's final race points would be: 14.1 Million race points per day, and
OCF's final race points would be: 13 M * 1.048 = 13.628 Million race points per day

And OCN won this race.

There's several pitfalls for handicapping though:

1) you have to go by actual "racing" history. Not just average non-racing history. Otherwise teams that race together (like Hardware Canucks and NCIX) will just walk all over everyone in the race. We saw that two years ago.

2) In a multiple segment or day race, you need to add in the handicapping every day or segment. Otherwise there will be a weird "leap" of points (up or down), right at the end due to the handicapping being done, all at once. NOBODY likes that, because it looks like cheating!!

But that's the short version of handicapping, and it's not complex.
Edited by Adak - 2/20/13 at 12:34am
post #68 of 169
This is a fuller example of how simple handicapping can be:
Code:
Simple, straight forward handicapping.

This uses a simple ratio between competing teams, to handicap a race. It's ONLY based on folding points.

First, a background RACING average is determinded for let's say, three teams, for a 1 day race.
The race day has 8 update periods - just like the Chimp Challenge.

                        Team 1: Ants,    Team 2: Bats,    Team 3: Cats
======================================================================
        Racing Averages:          5M            10M          12M (per day)
 Handicap Ratio:                 12/5         12/10          1   (most productive team has no handicap)
 
 Points updates:  (raw folding points)
                          1:   600,000      1,200,000     1,400,000 
                          2:   650,000      1,225,000     1,430,000
                          3:   712,000      1,330,000     1,510,000
                          4:   710,000      1,389,000     1,518,000
                          5:   740,000        960,000     1,901,000
                          6:   725,000        975,000     1,890,000
                          7:   688,000      1,212,000     1,720,000
                          8:   777,000      1,301,000     1,677,000
                            ========================================
                             5,602,000      9,592,000    13,046,000

Each point update is multiplied by the handicap, to avoid any "jumps" in the race points, at the end of a day.

(race folding points)       Team 1: Ants          Team 2: Bats               Team 3: Cats
==========================================================================================
 Points updates:  Raw points x handicap = race points
              1:  600k x 12/5 = 1,440,000  1.2M   x 12/10 = 1,440,000            1,400,000
              2:  650k x 12/5 = 1,560,000  1.225M x 12/10 = 1,470,000            1,430,000
              3:  712k x 12/5 = 1,708,800  1.33M  x 12/10 = 1,596,000            1,510,000
              4:  710k x 12/5 = 1,704,000  1.389M x 12/10 = 1,668,000            1,518,000
              5:  740k x 12/5 = 1,776,000    960k x 12/10 = 1,152,000            1,901,000
              6:  725k x 12/5 = 1,740,000    975k x 12/10 = 1,170,000            1,890,000
              7:  688k x 12/5 = 1,651,200  1.212M x 12/10 = 1,454,400            1,720,000
              8:  777k x 12/5 = 1,864,800  1.301M x 12/10 = 1,561,200            1,677,000                

Day #1 Race Point Totals:
                       Team 1: 13,444,800          Team 2: 11,511,600    Team 3: 13,046,000

In this example, Team #1 Ants placed first, Team 3 Cats placed second, and Team 2 Bats placed third.

Which makes perfect sense because -

Team #1's raw points were well above their previous racing average.
Team #2 was below their average racing production, and
Team #3 was just barely above their average racing production.
Edited by Adak - 2/20/13 at 2:28am
post #69 of 169
That makes it real easy for a person or 2 to join a small team (sounds like that happened somewhat last year? ) and help them win since their points get multiplied by 2.4. Say a 4p joins the first team for 300k PPD but it really makes 720k PPD since it's multiplied by 2.4

Maybe instead of multiplying to normalize, subtract the daily race average. Most positive number wins as negative would be possible (Team 2 in above example).
post #70 of 169
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmonnin View Post

That makes it real easy for a person or 2 to join a small team (sounds like that happened somewhat last year? ) and help them win since their points get multiplied by 2.4. Say a 4p joins the first team for 300k PPD but it really makes 720k PPD since it's multiplied by 2.4

Maybe instead of multiplying to normalize, subtract the daily race average. Most positive number wins as negative would be possible (Team 2 in above example).

That results in no handicap however. If 10 teams all improved their racing production by 2%, the largest team would always win the race.

The beauty of this way, is that it's self-righting. If a small team gets a big bump in production, then sure, they're likely to win. But NEXT year, they'll have it MUCH harder to win, because their racing history average will be substantially higher.

For instance, OCF had a VERY productive race last year. It would be almost impossible for us to win it this year.
Edited by Adak - 2/20/13 at 9:04am
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