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[Pravada] Comet could collide with Mars in 2014 with the force of 20 billion megatons of TNT - Page 20

post #191 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenC View Post

Megaton in this context is energy not mass. So a that means an energy release of 8.4 x 10^22 J.

I have not taken a physics course in awhile but using E = 1/2MV^2, and the Discovery News velocity estimate of 35 miles/s (~54km/s) the estimate of 20 billion megatons gives a mass of 5.7 * 10^10 metric tons or 57 billion tons.

For comparison that puts it over half the mass of the moon. If I did the math correctly (which I cannot say for sure that I did) that makes me a bit skeptical of the estimate.

Edited for clarity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingCain View Post

Actually, it might start Terra forming on its own. Comets equates to massive amounts of ice. The following impact will grossly expand greenhouse gas + carbon dioxide and primordial soup, could potentially make it hospitable to plants if we ever launched some over there.

The megaton of TNT is a unit of energy equal to 4.184 petajoules.[1] So 4.184 * 10^15 Joules per megaton, which means 20*10^9 * 4.184 * 10^15 = 8.368*10^25 Joules.

Now converting to mass

8.368*10^25 = (1/2)*m*v^2
2*8.368*10^25 / v^2 = m
Assuming the rate of 54km/s
5.739369 * 10^22 kg
You're right, this is about equivalent to an object 75% the size of the moon crashing into mars at 54 km/s. This is probably enough to obliterate mars into several pieces if its true.
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post #192 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenC View Post

Megaton in this context is energy not mass. So a that means an energy release of 8.4 x 10^22 J.

I have not taken a physics course in awhile but using E = 1/2MV^2, and the Discovery News velocity estimate of 35 miles/s (~54km/s) the estimate of 20 billion megatons gives a mass of 5.7 * 10^10 metric tons or 57 billion tons.

For comparison that puts it over half the mass of the moon. If I did the math correctly (which I cannot say for sure that I did) that makes me a bit skeptical of the estimate.

Edited for clarity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingCain View Post

Actually, it might start Terra forming on its own. Comets equates to massive amounts of ice. The following impact will grossly expand greenhouse gas + carbon dioxide and primordial soup, could potentially make it hospitable to plants if we ever launched some over there.

The megaton of TNT is a unit of energy equal to 4.184 petajoules.[1] So 4.184 * 10^15 Joules per megaton, which means 20*10^9 * 4.184 * 10^15 = 8.368*10^25 Joules.

Now converting to mass

8.368*10^25 = (1/2)*m*v^2
2*8.368*10^25 / v^2 = m
Assuming the rate of 54km/s
5.739369 * 10^22 kg
You're right, this is about equivalent to an object 75% the size of the moon crashing into mars at 54 km/s. This is probably enough to obliterate mars into several pieces if its true.
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post #193 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by serp777 View Post


The megaton of TNT is a unit of energy equal to 4.184 petajoules.[1] So 4.184 * 10^15 Joules per megaton, which means 20*10^9 * 4.184 * 10^15 = 8.368*10^25 Joules.

Now converting to mass

8.368*10^25 = (1/2)*m*v^2
2*8.368*10^25 / v^2 = m
Assuming the rate of 54km/s
5.739369 * 10^22 kg
You're right, this is about equivalent to an object 75% the size of the moon crashing into mars at 54 km/s. This is probably enough to obliterate mars into several pieces if its true.
The Earth survived a planet the size of Mars hitting it to create the moon, Mars can survive this with ease.
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post #194 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by -Apocalypse- View Post

The Earth survived a planet the size of Mars hitting it to create the moon, Mars can survive this with ease.

I would say that when a planet was hit with enough force to create a new moon, its not the same planet afterwards. It fits my definition of "obliterated into several pieces". Mars would probably get a new moon from this, but that depends on factors like the structural integrity of the planet, its density, and the composition of the projectile hitting mars.
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post #195 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by doomlord52 View Post

Slight update.

Continuing with the trend, the current estimate has the nominal distance closer than it was when the OP article was written. At the time of the article, it was 0.0007 AU (~100,000km), now its 0.00035 AU. That's about 52,000km, and that's about 7x closer than the moon.

Good news is good biggrin.gif

Is it? Each time they recalculate, the distance grows smaller and smaller. I wonder what this would rate on the Torino scale.
post #196 of 216
As long as the collision doesn't happen around april 2014 when mars and earth are only 57 million miles from each other, and in a direct line from each other.

I think we'll be good.
post #197 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by serp777 View Post

I would say that when a planet was hit with enough force to create a new moon, its not the same planet afterwards. It fits my definition of "obliterated into several pieces". Mars would probably get a new moon from this, but that depends on factors like the structural integrity of the planet, its density, and the composition of the projectile hitting mars.
Well Earth was in a protoplanet state with significant amounts of surface lava, but the moon is only ~20% of the size of Theia (the name of the planet that is believed to have hit us). This comet is no where near large enough to create a new moon, at most it'll be like the far side of the moon where it's a different composition from the near side after Earth's second moon crashed into it and coated the surface since it wasn't a fast enough/large enough to create an impact crater. The impact is likely to radically change a quarter or more of the surface of Mars, but it won't be a huge event on the solar system scale unless it either hits in a spot where a lot of the energy is transferred into the Martian core and reheats it or it hits the southern polar ice cap (northern is impossible from its trajectory) and releases enough CO2 and H20 to jumpstart the atmosphere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vspec View Post

As long as the collision doesn't happen around april 2014 when mars and earth are only 57 million miles from each other, and in a direct line from each other.

I think we'll be good.
Two objects always form a direct line from each other... But we know rather definitively it'll happen +/- a day on Oct 19th. Mars should be on the western horizon trailing our orbit.
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post #198 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by -Apocalypse- View Post

Well Earth was in a protoplanet state with significant amounts of surface lava, but the moon is only ~20% of the size of Theia (the name of the planet that is believed to have hit us). This comet is no where near large enough to create a new moon, at most it'll be like the far side of the moon where it's a different composition from the near side after Earth's second moon crashed into it and coated the surface since it wasn't a fast enough/large enough to create an impact crater. The impact is likely to radically change a quarter or more of the surface of Mars, but it won't be a huge event on the solar system scale unless it either hits in a spot where a lot of the energy is transferred into the Martian core and reheats it or it hits the southern polar ice cap (northern is impossible from its trajectory) and releases enough CO2 and H20 to jumpstart the atmosphere.
Two objects always form a direct line from each other... But we know rather definitively it'll happen +/- a day on Oct 19th. Mars should be on the western horizon trailing our orbit.

I meant this close.



Suspected date of impact.


huge difference.
Edited by vspec - 3/4/13 at 8:34pm
post #199 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by vspec View Post

I meant this close.

huge difference.
I knew what you meant, but even still we're talking about 92 million miles km, nothing ejected from Mars is going to be travelling at the speed of light. If the comet somehow kept its momentum and bounced off Mars directly at the Earth's location, it'd still take it 19 days to get to where Earth was, by which time it'd be very much a clean miss. But beyond that, nothing big enough to worry about is going to escape Mars's orbit.
Edited by -Apocalypse- - 3/5/13 at 7:13am
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post #200 of 216
it's 92 million km not miles.
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