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[theinquirer] AMD claims 20nm transition signals the end of Moore's Law - Page 3

post #21 of 50
Quote:
On 13 April 2005, Gordon Moore stated in an interview that the law cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens". He also noted that transistors would eventually reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels

In terms of size [of transistors] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
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post #22 of 50
Can we please stay on topic and stop it with points that aren't really relevant to anything but an intel v AMD war? This is about the manufacturing processes that will come after 20nm, not AMD's revenue, profits, or settlements with intel.

cleaned.
 
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post #23 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr/owned View Post

For the record, 14nm Broadwell wafers already exist.

That doesn't have anything to do with Moore's law. I have already noticed the release schedules have slowed down, look at how long current graphics cards have been on the same process. It is much harder to shrink the transistor size as we approach these really small sizes. That difficulty means it takes longer and is more expensive.
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post #24 of 50
If by chance someone not know who is John Gustafson from AMD here are all the most important information. wink.gif

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_L._Gustafson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustafson%27s_law
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post #25 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr/owned View Post

For the record, 14nm Broadwell wafers already exist.
Really? proof.gif because unless you're at D1D you probably have no idea what you're talking about thumb.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

When you're reliant on fabs outside of your control, is where the problem lies.



Not quite accurate. Broadwell won't be on 18" for sure (450mm), the industry as a whole hasn't quite decided when they want to switch to 450mm
post #26 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by asuindasun View Post

Really? proof.gif because unless you're at D1D you probably have no idea what you're talking about thumb.gif
Not quite accurate. Broadwell won't be on 18" for sure (450mm), the industry as a whole hasn't quite decided when they want to switch to 450mm

hmm, you're right, looks like 450mm wafers won't start until 2015, it's the FAB they are building this year.
Quote:
Intel Corp. plans to start building its first semiconductor facility that will process 450mm wafers this year. The company has assigned $2 billion to expand its D1X fab in Hillsboro, Oregon with dedicated 450mm module 2 and is looking forward to have the construction ready for equipment by 2015
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20130118165856_Intel_to_Start_Building_First_Dedicated_450mm_Fab_This_Year.html

The main point I was making is that Intel will start 14nm Broadwell production at the end of this year.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20130118154034_Intel_on_Track_to_Start_Making_14nm_Broadwell_Chips_in_2013.html
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post #27 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

hmm, you're right, looks like 450mm wafers won't start until 2015, it's the FAB they are building this year.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20130118165856_Intel_to_Start_Building_First_Dedicated_450mm_Fab_This_Year.html

The main point I was making is that Intel will start 14nm Broadwell production at the end of this year.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20130118154034_Intel_on_Track_to_Start_Making_14nm_Broadwell_Chips_in_2013.html

What you leave out, is the astronomical per wafer costs for 14nm in terms of mask price etc, this is a R&D scale up production run.

bottom line, the costs to go further down the nodes, is going to rise at a almost geometric type of rate for every node below 20nm, which will slow down moores law as ROI will on average double, then quadruple etc etc etc
post #28 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCollins View Post

What you leave out, is the astronomical per wafer costs for 14nm in terms of mask price etc, this is a R&D scale up production run.

bottom line, the costs to go further down the nodes, is going to rise at a almost geometric type of rate for every node below 20nm, which will slow down moores law as ROI will on average double, then quadruple etc etc etc

Astronomical cost if your best consumer CPU have a die twice as large as its competitor and you can only sell it for $200, Pocket change for companiesthat can sell a 160mm ^2 Die for various consumer products at $300-$1000(i7-3940XM) price points , not to mention even higher margin server products.
Edited by sherlock - 4/2/13 at 6:31pm
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post #29 of 50
^this.
this is largely an AMD's problem because Intel will just cruise through this with their billions invested in R&D
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post #30 of 50
Laws are made to be broken. thumb.gif
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