LTC to $35 dollars is somewhat lofty expectations for the near future IMO. I think it can definitely get to 10 dollars, but it's more about the price of Bitcoin as well.
Because it is much easier to convert Fiat currency into Bitcoin (which is getting harder to do anyway), anyone who wants to put money into Litecoin still has to buy bitcoin first and then trade them for LTC.
Not to mention, the MtGox rumor has been around for at least 2 months if not close to that now. Everyone knows it is "possibly" going to happen soon so most LTC holders are doing just that, holding onto their coins right now. This is why the ltc/usd amount has been somewhat static recently IMO. Ltc/Btc went up because bitcoin went down, not because litecoins themselves gained value.
Even if it does get on MtGox, I think that company is slowly losing it's monopoly on buying and selling coins. Too much personal info being required now, too much news about their legal troubles, too much downtime, all these things make people start to flock elsewhere (I guess btc-e is the second most popular) and upon arrival to these sites many are exposed to alt coins for the first time anyway.
it's all about being able to convert cash into the cryptocurrency in question quickly and anonymously really. That is the elephant in the room that most miners do not want to acknowledge, the illegal aspects of these coins. Like it's just impossible to have it both ways, being able to create a virtual form of tender out of machines you already build that will only rise in value and NOT
have it be associated with some form of criminal activity. It's just too good to be true, which is why a large number of people look at them as Ponzi schemes.
Except Ponzi schemes don't create anything tangible, they just keep covering their tracks with new money until it all blows up in dramatic fashion. These coins actually provide people with a means to acquire goods or make their services for sale. The only thing that gives the coins value is the fact that you can spend them on said goods and services, so therefore the more services provided for a coin the more it's worth will be.
Let's see, Bitcoin has far and away the most places to spend them on, and it is far and away the most valuable coin. But there are a lot of new developers out there who saw how Bitcoin exploded, and saw ways to improve on it that would help the average user. The only problem is, there is a giant mosh pit of coins and their supporters fighting against each other right now below Bitcoin all in the hope that THEIR
coin will be the one to make a quick buck and improve on the faults bitcoin will never be able to change at this point.
ASICS are already forcing small time (and trust me, we're small time relative to the room-sized farms you see online) GPU miners into other coins, which is why there is such a long list of new coins that have come out in the past 4-5 months each with the hope that it can just make it to a trading website and rise ever so slightly in value so the first wave of miners can dump it all towards bitcoins.
There's no long-term support it seems, everyone is just mining on multipools or going with the FOTM coin, and I can't say I blame them really as there is math behind it that will make you not lose money. But it's not in the best interest of this field as a whole for there not to be an actual, bonafide second option to Bitcoin. Which is why Litecoin going on MtGox will probably be a bad thing in the long run.
It shouldn't require a singular
website adding support for a decentralized
currency to have it grow, that is an oxymoron if I ever heard one.
What needs to happen is more development of places to spend the coins on, more ways to exchange fiat money into said coins without hassle, and a larger group of non-miners being informed of said coin and the goods that can be bought with it.
So in the case of Bitcoin, which already has accomplished those three things
more development of places to spend the coins on
= TOR Browser sites
more ways to exchange fiat money into said coins without hassle
= (was)Bitinstant, Localbitcoins, whatever apps they came up with (the Barclay's one rings a bell)
larger group of non-miners being informed of said coin and the goods that can be bought with it
this is just getting around to happening with Btc, there is a ways to go before altcoins get that kind of exposure. And this point doesn't mean much at all if the second point has not materialized yet anyway.
So to end an extremely opinionated TLDR
Litecoin hitting MtGox will result in a quick bubble followed by a quicker burst and while I don't think it will affect LTC long term I think it will cause more people to re-pledge themselves to bitcoin after seeing the first altcoin try and fail to bust out on it's own.
But unless the points I made are met by any cryptocoin, the same fate will befall all of them because this is the one field where everyone thinks they are smarter than the next person and that they will be ten steps ahead of any negative results that might play out, until you look at the whole Bitcoin scene from afar with binoculars and realize it's not as decentralized as everyone would have you believe or as is touted on the forums and the prices are actually being carefully manipulated by a few key players in order to maximize their profits because at the end of the day if you turn off your mining rig forever that's just one less person on the difficulty level whereas if a website like Bitinstant or MtGox runs into trouble there is a far wider domino effect on the rest of the entire cryptocoin economy, and they know that.
But that's why it is too late for Bitcoin IMO, and if you want proof of why the whole system Satoshi started has gone down the toilet just look at some key FACTS
-the largest payment processor is directly tied to the largest trading exchange, and uses a company called LexisNexis
to verify each and every person who wishes to use it now. Oh you thought this was still anonymous? Yeah turns out it only has to be anonymous until big money (see: US Federal Government) is involved, then the searchlights start coming out.
-ASICs are being produced and sold to anyone who has spare bitcoin laying around with nothing but greed in mind at the time of purchase (news flash: when everyone has the same idea and is able to act on it at the same time it generally turns into a cluster****, see: bitcoin difficulty)
-Community has gotten so smug about these coins in general. And I know this is a subjective thing really but the amount of people who have been brainwashed into that belief that they somehow didn't miss the boat on Bitcoin yet and because of the finite supply and increasing recognition they can still make money by buying them and trashing any other coin is astonishing. The coin is not invincible if a single website (according to their front page in big font) "handles over 80% of all bitcoin trade", and it is based in a first world country. There's these things called taxes, and they are complicated beyond all hell for a reason, so things like Bitcoin fall into a grey area that is just grey enough to keep the people on the fence away, while leaving ways to keep an eye on the rebellious techies who must form startups based in the US to further their cause.
Except they can't waste time and resources going after every single possible tax cheat so they will focus on the big players, and hope the rest fall into place, which is what the Govt. does 99/100 times
The best thing that can happen to Litecoin and cryptocurrencies in general is for Bitcoin to fall from grace and to have a more widely spread distribution of wealth amongst many smaller exchanges, not a few big ones that are prone to downtime and just all around poor service.
Also, if more people would actually spend them on things instead of just keeping them in a wallet somewhere because you heard from a guy on a forum you joined two hours ago that one of his old programming friends possibly might have the blueprints drawn up for a petition to get a petition made proclaiming that in two or twelve months a website that had a business fall into it's incompetent lap could possibly raise the value of the coin you just finished downloading the blockchain for by almost 1.21 jigowatts, there wouldn't need to be so much baseless accusations and misinformation being spread.
Once it gets down to "ok I have x
amount of coins, I know for a fact I can get y
amount of goods at z
marketplace, let me go spend these"
there will be stability for any coin, and that is why Bitcoin reached it first. It attached itself to an economy where the prices were already established by supply and demand (LARGE Demand), the ability to remain anonymous was not only a benefit but a requirement, and a smallish group of innovators saw a way to connect the one thing every continent has in common (rampant criminal activity) via systems that were already in place due to outside parties (TOR browser, postal services, AMD graphics cards)
That's what really drives these economies, and sorry if I broke anything against the TOS but that was way too long of a post to wonder about so if you read this far excuse my rambling but falling asleep would be awfully hard for me to do right now and the best part about all of this stuff is I could be completely wrong, or 100% right, and it's really up in the air as to how it is all going to play out right now.
Either way, I think Bitcoin is fighting a losing battle against time, and in some ways, shooting itself in the foot by finding a way to exclude the silent majority (see: we as miners) of people who actually would spend their coins on goods instead of waiting for a made up value to reach a certain point just to dump their entire stash so they can buy it back again in a week and perpetuate the idea that this will last forever and somehow avoid the fundamental principle that for every person who wins there isn't a loser so long as you don't know who the loser is.
But in the end, every time you deal with MtGox or BitInstant, you
are really the loser. And they know who YOU
are, but good luck getting a subscription to LexisNexis to find out who THEY
are.Edited by 77bigmac77 - 7/9/13 at 12:18am