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[USA] Apple shares close below $400 - Page 6

post #51 of 82
It was fairly obvious this would happen. Apple's success was based solely on insanely good timing - not even good products.

Look back at their stuff:

The iPod came out just as internet speeds were getting to the point where digital music was viable; so they released a thing that could take the music with you. People see that digital is the future, and this thing does digital. It also looks fairly futuristic. Combine that all, and you've got the launch iPod.

The iPhone comes out just as dumb-phones are getting phased out. Blackberry and the like are getting more popular, but the input method is still pretty bad. Apple takes what already existed, and added a touchscreen. While similar products existed at the time, it integrated well with the existing iPod market, which they used for sales leveraging.

The Macbook Pro is next (I guess). Smaller laptops are becoming more important; no one wants the 800lb giant laptops of doom. They want light, portable, long-lasting laptops. So they get mediocre parts, shove them into a laptop, and call it a day. Other stuff like this already existed, but they just rode the iPod/iPhone hype wagon to a giant pile of cash.

The tablet came out when thin laptops were getting mainstream, and just about everyone (who could afford a tablet) had both a thin laptop and a smart phone. So what do they do? They buff up a smartphone and make the screen almost the size of a laptop. They keep the phone OS the same, so it has all the apps from before. Yay. Amazing.

Then they just released updates yearly. People would get excited because the stuff was so "revolutionary" before, and hoped that it would be "revolutionary" again. Unfortunately for them, by this time, Android had seriously stepped up its game (and started existing), and simply offered equal or better products at the same or lower prices. We saw the real trend with the S2; a powerful phone that was (spec wise) better than the current iphone in every way - and it was less expensive. Apple's counter was simply to bump up the phone to be slightly better than Google's offerings, and hope to ride the hype wagon again. However, each generation in google's lineup (I'm bunching samsung, lg, htc, etc. into one), actually pushed the tech a fair bit. Much higher resolution screens, far better CPUs, etc. Eventually, the massive yearly jumps by google outdid apple's stalling approach. And that's where we are today.

Apple hasn't actually done ANYTHING amazing in years. Their last truly "new" product was the iPod. Everything else was just products that were very new, put on a pillar of insane marketing and iPod hype. That hype has (finally) faded out, and people are seeing that apple's business model makes very little sense.

You can see apple is scared; look at the Mac Pro launch. It made absolutely no sense. The pro-linup has never really had a true "big" launch, as it was only targeted at studios, big companies, etc. and those companies don't really care for big launches. They want to see a spec sheet and a price. Instead Apple wanted to "revolutionize" the desktop, and made it a tube... while doing nearly nothing to the specs. They then put all the hype on the only things they did; they made it a tube, and used PCI-flash as storage. There's very little focus on actual computation power, because its nearly the same as what is was before. Apple is trying to sell the Mac Pro as a mainstream product, but has failed to realize that its mainstream market doesn't care about desktops.

Tl;DR. Hype has finally fallen from the iPod launch, people see better products. Stock will settle at 150-180 in the next 1.5 years.
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post #52 of 82
It's just a bubble. They're everywhere in the stock market. Best for everyone if they pop sooner than later. But you know, dem "high hopes."
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post #53 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnomepatrol View Post

Yeah, but that was so overinflated it was mind boggling. Everyone and their mother knew that was not the price APPL should be at. The market is correcting itself, as it normally does, and returning the stock price to sane levels.

There are so many uninformed comments here.

Apple had a reasonable P/E even at 700, especially considering they had 100 billion in cash.

You call a P/E of 15 "so overinflated it was mindboggling"?? That's very low for the tech sector. The market has always been undervaluing Apple, doubting that they can pull of another "big thing". Objectively, looking at their profit margins, brand value, cash flow, cash reserves... a P/E of 15 was very very low valuation. Of course Jobs was alive when they were 700 and his departure meant the end of Apple in many's eyes, but back when he was at the helm and they were at 700. I'll repeat, they were not objectively overvalued, not by a longshot.
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post #54 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by mechtech View Post

There are so many uninformed comments here.

Apple had a reasonable P/E even at 700, especially considering they had 100 billion in cash.

You call a P/E of 15 "so overinflated it was mindboggling"?? That's very low for the tech sector. The market has always been undervaluing Apple, doubting that they can pull of another "big thing". Objectively, looking at their profit margins, brand value, cash flow, cash reserves... a P/E of 15 was very very low valuation. Of course Jobs was alive when they were 700 and his departure meant the end of Apple in many's eyes, but back when he was at the helm and they were at 700. I'll repeat, they were not objectively overvalued, not by a longshot.

I don't know enough about the stock market to know what your technical terms mean. But I went and Googled AAPL and saw that their most recent relevant spike in price was after his death. So that debunks your assertion that Jobs was what gave investors faith in the company.

As for "undervalued," it doesn't matter. The price is the price and it's going down, and anyone who speaks of what it should be, as opposed to what it is, is either a salesman, or someone who has recently taken the advice of one.
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post #55 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by un-midas touch View Post

I don't know enough about the stock market to know what your technical terms mean. But I went and Googled AAPL and saw that their most recent relevant spike in price was after his death. So that debunks your assertion that Jobs was what gave investors faith in the company.

As for "undervalued," it doesn't matter. The price is the price and it's going down, and anyone who speaks of what it should be, as opposed to what it is, is either a salesman, or someone who has recently taken the advice of one.

Jobs passing brought Apple a ton of attention. Of course there was a big spike thanks to the giant amount of media exposure. The majority of OCN had nothing but good things to say about Jobs/Apple at that time. The evidence you use to disagree about jobs related to investor faith is the same evidence I could use to prove that it existed. The new CEO isn't doing nearly as well. I'm betting the majority don't even know the name of the new Apple CEO which would speak volumes about how they are doing if this is true.
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post #56 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyHeaven View Post

Jobs passing brought Apple a ton of attention. Of course there was a big spike thanks to the giant amount of media exposure. The majority of OCN had nothing but good things to say about Jobs/Apple at that time. The evidence you use to disagree about jobs related to investor faith is the same evidence I could use to prove that it existed. The new CEO isn't doing nearly as well. I'm betting the majority don't even know the name of the new Apple CEO which would speak volumes about how they are doing if this is true.

If you were agreeing with me thanks I'm not really sure but my point was that this drop in price is quite literal proof of recent overvaluing of their stock, and that this "undervaluing" which was referred to doesn't really exist as a counterpart to it. As I said I only need common sense to figure out that it probably rarely happens, and if the term does get thrown around a lot in the stock market circles it's probably just a buzzword used to combat a lack of faith based on the much more common phenomenon of overvaluing.
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post #57 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by un-midas touch View Post

If you were agreeing with me thanks I'm not really sure but my point was that this drop in price is quite literal proof of recent overvaluing of their stock, and that this "undervaluing" which was referred to doesn't really exist as a counterpart to it.

Just because a price falls doesn't mean it was overvalued at its previous price. Stock price is almost entirely about future expectations. The word overvalued and undervalued gets thrown around a lot, but in the end it's sort of like... well here's an analogy: You have Ace King in a poker game and make a big bet. The other guy ends up having a pair and beats you. Was your original bet poor just because it happened to end that way? No, it was a good bet based on the situation at the time.

To say a stock was undervalued or overvalued and really carry a meaning with it, the price would have had to be based on hype and bad assumptions (Zynga) or misinformation (Enron). 1-2 years ago Apple was in a genuinely commanding position and the valuation of 700 was basically justified. In the years since, Apple has not moved into the lower cost market or released a new "big thing" as expected, but that doesn't mean they weren't holding a very strong hand 2 years ago. So maybe the bet was a bit too big for the cards they held, but it was nothing outrageous, they certainly weren't massively overvalued as so many sensationalized comments claim.

For anyone who doesn't know, P/E is by far the most important part of stock price. Basically, it's the total valuation of the company compared to its current profit. At $700 Apple still only had a P/E of 15, which meant that if someone was to buy all of Apple for that price, they would make their money back in 15 years (assuming zero growth) and still own the company. That's very low for a tech stock, especially one with 100 billion dollars in hard cash. For example, Amazon has a P/E of 80, which means it's valued at 80 times its yearly profits.

At $400, Apple's P/E is 9. That means that the market expects Apple to not only stop growing, but start losing profit, and quickly at that. People expect Apple to fail pretty hard, it's baked right into the price. Apple now has 145 billion in cash and pays a 3% dividend to holders... If Apple does anything other than fail spectacularly it's quite undervalued right now.

The last thing to understand is stock price jumps and dips don't follow common sense. Every time Apple would release record profits their price would fall, and Jobs dying made their price spike. "Buy the rumor, sell the news". I don't know... I just think it's important to understand the basic 1+1=2 of the stock market in order to make claims on articles like this or else it's basically misinformation. Sometimes I think people just see big numbers and immediately assume "rip off, overvalued, etc". It's like people looking at a 5ghz FX8150 and claiming its the fastest chip out there, it's just obnoxious to see.
Edited by mechtech - 6/28/13 at 1:51am
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post #58 of 82
But you gotta admit, there's a lot of bubbles.
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post #59 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stealth Pyros View Post

The garbage can? Really? Interesting? Nice? sicksmiley.png

This is what I was thinking. It looks like an art-deco trash can. headscratch.gif
post #60 of 82
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylon View Post

Will be interesting to see where their stock goes when the 5S is announced, and as a lot of people have suspected...a lower end iPhone that comes in a range of colors.

That will either be extremely popular and send stock sky high, or it will ruin the premium feel of apple....I suspect peopl will eat it up!

From every experience with Apple I've ever had, of course people will eat it up- It's popular to have an iPhone. Coming from a high school prospective, there was a small group of people with iPhones at the beginning of Freshman year (two years ago), and now I'm one of the only people left with an Android/ non-Apple device. All I see is iPads, iPhones, iPods, Macbooks, and Macbook Pros. It's all garbage to me, nothing more than a fad- a trend. I can't wait until it dies out, because every time I see something about Apple "Inventing" something in the news, or hear about it at school- it just makes me wonder how can people believe this? I hope they tank, and then come back to you know- be realistic about how they create computers, because putting almost the same hardware in each computer doesn't work to well seeing as their stock prices have been all over the place.

I just pray that they learn from this, and hope to move out of Starbucks. I'm tired of weird coffee names and seeing Apple logos.
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Corsair Dominator GT 16GB Kit @ 1604MHz (9-9-9-24) Asus Raidr 240GB PCI-E SSD Samsung EVO 250GB Samsung EVO 250GB 
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(X3) NoiseBlocker BlackSIlentPro PL-2 @ 5V Bitspower 45* Single Rotary Adapter (Matte Blac... (X3) Bitspower Chrome Stop Plug (W/ Black O-Ring) (X2) EK Monarch (Nickle Base, Clean Acetal Top) 
CoolingCoolingCoolingCooling
Bitspower Mini Valve (Matte Black) (X4) NoiseBlocker eLoop B12-2 @ 7V (X3) NoiseBlocker/Phobya eLoop Black "Silent Ed... (X4) NoiseBLocker BlackSilentPro PK-2 @ 7V 
CoolingCoolingCoolingCooling
(X1) NoiseBlock eLoop B12-PS Bitspower X-Station (White) (X3) ModMyToys Splitter PCB (Single 3-Pin --> 5... Bitspower Acrylic Pump Top 
CoolingCoolingCoolingCooling
ModMyToys Splitter PCB (Single 3-Pin --> 3 3-Pins) (X2) EK-FC R9-290X Nickle/Acrylic (X2) EK-FC R9-290X Reinforcement Brackets (X2) EK-FC R9-290X Backplates 
CoolingCoolingCoolingCooling
HardwareLabs BlackIce SR-1 360MM  HardwareLabs BlackIce SR-1 560MM  BItspower Black Mod Kit XSPC D5 Vario 
CoolingCoolingCoolingCooling
Bitspower 150mm Reservoir (Acrylic base, clear ... (X14) Bitspower X47 Acrylic Fittings (Matte Bla... (X3) Bitspower Dual Rotary Snake Fittings (Matt... (X4) Bitspower 90* Angled Fittings (Matte Black) 
CoolingCoolingCoolingOS
(X2) Bitspower Enhanced Dual 45* Multi-Link Ada... (X3) Bitspower Enhanced Dual 90* Multi-Link Ada... Bitspower Pressure Equalizer Stop Plug (Matte B... Windows 8.1 + Full Office Suite 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
BenQ XL2420TE Logitech G710+ Silverstone Strider Evolution 1000W (Sleeved by... CaseLabs SMH10, XL Window, standard ventilated ... 
MouseMouse PadAudioOther
Razer Ouroborus  Akasa Venom XXL Schiit Asgard 2 (soon to be happening) (X6) Silverstone 120mm Magnetic Fan Filters 
OtherOther
(X4) Silverstone 140mm Magnetic Fan Filters Vintage Soviet Ushanka Over Monitor, For Good Luck 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
FX-8350 Asus Crosshair V Forumula-Z MSI R7970-2pmd3gd5/oc (water cooled) Corsair Dominator Platinum 
Hard DriveOSMonitorKeyboard
WD Black  Windows 7 Home Premium  Samsung Syncmaster S20B350H Razer Anansi 
PowerCaseMouseMouse Pad
EVGA Supernova NEX750G Cooler Master HAF-X (Modded) Logitech G700 Cheap one 
AudioOtherOtherOther
Sound Blaster Zxr (when it comes out) CPU Block: Swiftech Apogee HD (Black) X2 120mm Bitfenix Specter PWM Red L.E.D Fans (o... X2 200mm Bitfenix Specter Pro Red L.E.D Fans 
OtherOtherOtherOther
Bitfenix Specter Pro Red L.E.D 230mm Fan X2 Thermal-Star gauge style thermometers w/ cus... 10ft DangerDen Dream Flex 1/2 X 3/4 in Red UV T... GPU Block: Swiftech Komodo R7970 Full Cover 
OtherOtherOtherOther
Phobya 400mm Extreme (Dual 200mm) Radiator Alphacool UT60 120mm Radiator Alphacool XT45 120mm Radiator Swiftech MCP35X PWM Pump (Black) 
OtherOtherOther
FrozenQ 250mm Blood Red Liquid Fusion Reservoir Drainage Loop (AlphaCool matte black T-block, d... Too many Bitspower Black 1/2 X 3/4 Compression ... 
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