Originally Posted by Ihatethedukes
Based on what? Your expansive knowledge of engineering and manufacturing? Elon Musk has put satellites into orbit and space capsules to the ISS for less than $2B USD (it maybe more than this now but they've done multiple flights and already developing bigger more expensive rockets). He's also started the first new car company in the US in 50+ years that is now self-sustaining.
In short, you have NO idea what you're talking about. Elon Musk knows something about both things, but certainly not everything. You're not popping anyone's bubble; you're just being a cynical wanker on the internet telling people stuff is 'impossible' without an honest clue as to why.
That being said, there is merit to being skeptical
about the proposed costs of such a project but given that so much is existing technology makes it manufacturable. Piping is mass produced and cheap (a HELL of a lot cheaper than maglev track). Concrete/rebar pylons are widely used and hence relatively cheap to make. The vacuum pumps to depressurize the tube are standard industry pieces and thus fairly cheap. He'll be using a different type of inductive motor; this technology exists but will take work to scale and linearize, it's not significantly difficult than making mag-lev in the first place. Now the hardest and mostly likely to overrun on costs are the pods. Howe they're being use in a system like this is new. However, given his extensive work in aerospace I'm sure they could be made to work, but at what cost? I don't really know.
We'll see soon enough when others start critiquing this idea.
Won't comment on you "internet wanker" labeling. I hope you felt powerful and wise when you wrote that.
You know what? I might have some idea about it. I might even be working in the field with people directly involved in the high speed rail. I am not working FOR them to have any need to support or defend them, but...that's that.
I might also have taken some post-graduate level classes and read some stuff around TOD (transit oriented development) to know the value of trains. I am no expert, but not just a wanker (we all need practice ppl).
The impossible is going to the cost. Not the application...
The officials working on the high speed rail project (that's an NPR story) laughed at the numbers Musk throws, and they did it for a good reason: it is california. It is a 20y+ public work.
But even if it wasn't, it is an uknown technology (i.e. hasn't been applied in this form - it could be based 100% on exhisting tech, but the application is totally new).
You need environmental reports, ensuring you want disrupt endangered species when you build it, when you operate it directly, the way you power/fuel it is sustainable, not just the technology is safe, but the way you operate it is safe.
Then you have to build it.
With union workers that are skilled enough to do it - it will be much more precise than the conventional high speed rail, thus MORE expensive labor wise.
Probably much more expensive material wise too, but that is the smaller portion of the thing...sizing and saying "$8B-10B" or w/e, is not a material cost.
Has to be marked up by the inflation over the span of the construction, the risks involved (much higher than with the high speed rail due to the record - you might say I will take the risk, your trustees paying for it will expect a bigger return of investment regardless).
The high speed rail in CA - or any public work of that magnitude) doesn't cost $100B in concrete and steel to come back and say "pipes are cheap".
And why bring mag-lev in the picture? The "opposition", much like the rest of the world don't really throw money that way anymore.
Originally Posted by hollowtek
the numbers here are staggering... and the airplane industry will quite literally take a dump trying to compete- it's impossible to compete for that matter. the costs of getting the loop is less than the yearly cost of jetfuel i'd imagine! the profitability would be insane...
Yes. Getting the loop that will serve how many people daily? VS. the fuel needed to move how many for how long?
Context people. We need context.
Originally Posted by dontpwnmebro
but guys... don't you remember? the government always holds back progress in favor of the established and powerful minority. that's what you guys always tell me.
Right. As if those money for the high speed rail will pay no blue collar workers, everything will go to the sharks, while Musk's efficiency differences will go to the people.
Public works are a great way to reduce unemployment. Governments always did that for a fact, that's not a conspiracy theory ala "goverments hold but progress - more over "always".
Really Mr Free spirit? Powerful minority? That is Musk - unless you forget about it.
You think US would be anything like it is without a government caring for its people? Which private company cares for its employees more, moreover the citizens more? / nough politics.
Its great and all, but Mush already said that he is not interested in building or operating the Hyperloop...he just throws the idea out.
Why? cause he knows that implementing it is much much more complicated than a press conference for laymen makes it sound, especially when you are appealing to ppl through "billions".
He is a bright man, he achieved a lot, but really, not much "new"....he is recycling technology invented by the space pioneers 50 years ago. Astronauts of the Gemini program did "Space X", and that costed INSANE BILLIONS. But you know what? Half a million people worked for it. People who believed and gave their heart for a vision, not just counting beans and promising returns.
Just made it cheaper, but not for the benefit of the people necessarily.Edited by pcfoo - 8/13/13 at 10:24am