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r9 290/290x price will go down very soon

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
This post will be talking about ''litecoin'' but only to explain why I think price will massively decrease very soon.

Reason #1: Shortage

Most of online reseller (newegg, tigerdirect, amazon, ncix,...) are currently out of stock or back order on R9 290/290x. This is mostly due to litecoin madness AND chinese new year shortage. When supply will be more steady, price should go down IF less people buys those card for litecoin mining. I'll explain why in reason 2.

Reason #2: Litecoin difficulty

2 weeks ago, litecoin difficulty was at 2800.xxxx. It's now at 4737.xxxx and expected to be at 4800+ very soon. According to coinwarz.com calculator, rentability as now reduce by 50%. Here's my calculation.

On february 24th, the difficulty was around 2800. Using a difficulty of 2800, an hashrate of 900 kh/s (r9 290) and leaving the value at there default, the annual rentability is 1463$ per year. If we modify the difficulty for today (4737), the annual rentability fall to 687$. This is 50% decrease in 2 weeks. The difficulty in October was around 1000, rentability was 4893$ annually.


Conclusion:

As more and more people mine litecoin, global hasrate keep increasing. The difficulty is also skyrocketing. Rentability will be hitting rock bottom extremely quickly. I expect Amd R9 290/290x video card price to go down really quick.

Whats your opinion on my analysis?
    
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post #2 of 15
You forgot that there are like 80 other cryptocurrencies that can be mined?
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post #3 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by anoob View Post

You forgot that there are like 80 other cryptocurrencies that can be mined?

This made me lol.
post #4 of 15
290/x prices have gone down though that is true. I just unloaded like 10 290/x and I got a lot less money than I figured I would have. Demand for them has definitely decreased among miners, Only gamers are now looking to get them for gaming or a second third for xfire etc.

They are great gaming cards underwater I love my xfire setup
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post #5 of 15
Thread Starter 
R9 290 keyword between 250-750$ on ebay: 190 results vs 130 yesterday( 128 saturday). Might start to look like a price decline
    
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post #6 of 15
I hope AMD cards drop in price, because that means Nvidia's eventually will too.
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post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by k3rast4se View Post

R9 290 keyword between 250-750$ on ebay: 190 results vs 130 yesterday( 128 saturday). Might start to look like a price decline

No actually when there is a shortage that will cause prices to rise especially for a newer piece of hardware where a want is high.
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post #8 of 15
The price started to go down on eBay. Only place where the price are still ridiculous is on newegg.
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post #9 of 15
Thread Starter 
If there's more result on ebay it mean more company selling new and more people selling used. More result + lower price = less shortage.
    
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post #10 of 15
I think people have begun to realize that 290/x cards are bad for mining. They run too hot, too loud, and fail. I personally have RMA'd at least 4 of these cards, each one of them started having graphical artifacts and other issues. Not sure how reliable these are for gaming under air or water, but for mining, they have a pretty short life in my experience.
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