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[Think Computers] NVIDIA Maxwell 20nm GPU Lineup Delayed Until 2015 - Page 15

post #141 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultracarpet View Post

I'm not speaking with certainty here, really just playing devils advocate.

Figures, yet you were so sure with your statement....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultracarpet View Post

scaling, scaling, scaling and oh did I mention scaling?

People are much better off making educated guesses, rather than making assumptions.
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post #142 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alatar View Post

-20nm has probably been planned for years, there's literally no reason not to do it because it would waste a ton of money spent on R&D already.
20nm is still more expensive per gate than 28nm, and until that changes you'll only see 20nm used in premium products, where absolute performance is more important than performance per dollar(and where there's a bigger profit margin to work with). Past R&D spending is a sunk cost, it doesn't justify switching to a new node, it just allows it.
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post #143 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by TranquilTempest View Post

20nm is still more expensive per gate than 28nm, and until that changes you'll only see 20nm used in premium products, where absolute performance is more important than performance per dollar(and where there's a bigger profit margin to work with). Past R&D spending is a sunk cost, it doesn't justify switching to a new node, it just allows it.

True, but still, just reinforces the argument about changing to 20nm even if AMD's next gen did suck compared to 20nm maxwell (which it probably wont).

Nvidia wouldn't abandon 20nm even if they were able to compete with 20nm AMD designs with 28nm Maxwell. They would just make their 20nm designs and jack up the prices to retain the good margins.
 
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post #144 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alatar View Post

True, but still, just reinforces the argument about changing to 20nm even if AMD's next gen did suck compared to 20nm maxwell (which it probably wont).

Nvidia wouldn't abandon 20nm even if they were able to compete with 20nm AMD designs with 28nm Maxwell. They would just make their 20nm designs and jack up the prices to retain the good margins.
I expect we will still see some more 28nm maxwell designs in the consumer desktop segment, with 20nm first going to either very high end desktop/compute parts, or to mobile. Sure, mainstream parts will eventually go 20nm, but not until yields improve to the point where it's cheaper per gate than staying at 28nm.
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post #145 of 193
I wasn't trying to say that I'm sure that NV will move 100% to 20nm or that we wont see more 28nm maxwell designs...redface.gif Just that using 20nm does make sense even in a scenario where AMD couldn't compete.
 
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post #146 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

Figures, yet you were so sure with your statement....
People are much better off making educated guesses, rather than making assumptions.

Lmao, scaling IS the argument, as to why nvidia is doing what it's doing is my uncertainty. Thanks for contributing.
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post #147 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alatar View Post

I wasn't trying to say that I'm sure that NV will move 100% to 20nm or that we wont see more 28nm maxwell designs...redface.gif Just that using 20nm does make sense even in a scenario where AMD couldn't compete.

Makes sense that when they started designing maxwell they had no idea what the competition would be like today... Also I see now that GCN isn't too far off the performance per watt of Kepler.

Going 20nm certainly isn't going to hurt NVidia, but playing it safe at 28nm might have.

Scaling argument (negative side) really only makes sense if tape-outs could be changed on a whim, but alas, they cannot.

EDIT Sorry, don't know why this post and the previous one were split up into 2
Edited by Ultracarpet - 4/6/14 at 2:34pm
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post #148 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultracarpet View Post

Lmao, scaling IS the argument, as to why nvidia is doing what it's doing is my uncertainty. Thanks for contributing.

Point is, do you have the SLIGHTEST idea how Maxwell scales? If so, please share your wisdom.
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post #149 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

Point is, do you have the SLIGHTEST idea how Maxwell scales? If so, please share your wisdom.

Oooomgg, read past the claim buddy

The point was (been pretty well debunked now by alatar) that if maxwell scaled so well, NVidia could release maxwell on 28nm and poop all over AMD because the 750ti scaled up would do just that. But they aren't; they are shooting for 20nm, and my claim as to why was that they are going for 20nm because staying on 28nm didn't scale as well as everyone is saying it should.

As Alatar said, though, when they were designing maxwell it was a long time ago and they were probably just trying to make as good of a product as they possibly could rather than reacting to future market conditions.

Now please stop.
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post #150 of 193
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alatar View Post

But the business side of NV can't make engineering decisions overnight and just decide to release big Maxwell chips on 28nm...

If such designs were to be released the design process would have begun ages ago, way before it was known that 20nm would not be ready yet. Just tape outs would have had to happen nearly a year ago.

Also the reason AMD is losing so badly with perf/watt in the high end is because they clocked their Hawaii cards stupidly high in order to get good reviews. GK110 per/watt flies out of the window once you actually clock it a bit higher. GK110 has 150-200MHz higher clock potential than Hawaii yet the reference GK110 cards are released with lower voltages than AMD designs and in some cases lower frequencies as well. GCN 1.1 efficiency is not that bad if you look at the 7790. Again, don't look at super high clocked "look at me I win at reviews" versions of the chip (260X or with hawaii 290X uber).
Pretty much all of this indeed.

Hawaii's extreme density and poor choice of cooler along with high clocks causing it to need a lot of voltage to attain those high clocks.
It goes a lot better with a good cooler and lower clocks actually some users reporting to have it down to 160 - 180W with some downclocking. Still it's density decreases max clock and increases leakage.

Now we are all out speculating seeing how TSMC is booked to full capacity and not by Nv or AMD. I myself think GloFo will get a piece of the cake actually I know they will. AMD's latest agreement with GloFo for their continued "partnership" AMD's CEO Rory Read stated GloFo would produce chips for the game consoles and gpus. (obviously he doesn't want more penalties since than 200m penalty they got a couple of months ago could've been forseen if the chips went there to begin with. (they were too late to do that probably and optimized for TSMC)

Anyhow I think both Nv and AMD will shift towards GloFo for 20nm if TSMC can't provide.


As for Maxwell the iniatial performance and performance/watt numbers are very good. And all with increasing cache a bit or is there a far deeper secret that yields most of these gains?! Either I deduct intel from AMD's claims for mobile about the new GCN version (pirate islands if I'm not mistaken) they cut their TDP/SDP in half with Mullins versus Temash considering it is pretty much on the same 28nm that means they halved the power consumption. Most of the SoC's power with Temash was coming of the gpu so they made huge gains there. (I know this because notebookcheck's review states Cinebench loads all cores yet doesn't show big consumption compared to a graphics load)

I sincerly doubt they can scale it up but it is an indication that Pirate islands may come very close to Maxwell as Mullins versus Temash halves power and increases gpu perf by 20%.
Edited by maarten12100 - 4/6/14 at 3:46pm
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