Originally Posted by fateswarm
NVIDIA will release something though. AMD maybe Q1 since they were late on the R9s. But Maxwells on 28nm? Doubtful. Possible but underwhelming, only if they are desperate. It's probably 20nm NVIDIA before Christmas and AMD 20nm couple of months later with many fireworks in christmas to direct attention from NVIDIA. No way Apple has A8s on 20nm on sale in Christmas on iPhones and NVIDIA is selling 28nm. This stinks marketing misdirection by both of them for selling GPUs in the Summer. Intel was explicit about it in a financials interview last year: You talk about next gen, you tank your current gen. And this is the exact period this might happen for GPUs. Talking about the next gen kills their sales for more than 4 months! It's imperative to avoid talking about it. It's preferable to say they are "ruined" for a year than say "we gonna have something in 6 months that makes what you buy now a stupid decision".
But a mobile chip is easier and less expensive to make than a big die GPU (besides, Apple more than likely takes precedence and what little 20nm capacity there is goes to them), especially since Maxwell has a lot more L2 cache than Kepler. The GTX 750 Ti and 750, for example have 2 Megabytes of L2 cache, that is 8 times more than the chip it's replacing, and it's even more than the 1.5 Megabytes GK110 has (GTX 780 Ti, Titan Black, etc), so the midrange and high-end Maxwell chips will most probably have even more.
Also, as an example, if Intel really wanted, they could technically deliver the CPU part of Haswell on 45nm with a 95w TDP, perhaps even a bit less. What I mean is that architectural efficiency improvements don't necessarily need a new manufacturing process. Intel has taken the die shrinks to cram in the GPU (and the memory controller), along with CPU improvements, but if you were to take a 45nm Core 2 Quad Q9000 series and compared it to a Core i7 4000 series made on 45nm without the GPU, my bet is that the Haswell part could fit in the same 95w TDP and it is obviously quite a bit faster.
As to talking about the future spoiling the current product line, that has always been the case, it's unavoidable, they only have to do one thing: lower prices to sell the remaining stock, people will buy into a good deal.
Also, it seems quite improbable that Nvidia would go all the way until December without new offerings.
The GTX 770 and GTX 760 need replacing asap, for example. They are both unoptimal stop gap solutions (the first more than the latter) to the problem they created by making the first GK104 series a high-end product. Maxwell on 28nm would be a great way to improve the offering in the mid-range at a lower TDP with great yields on a mature process. Besides, everybody can tell that these two GPUs are now getting old in the market, the GTX 770 will be one year old in May and the GTX 760 in June. At least at the high-end Nvidia released the GTX 780 Ti and Titan Black more recently, the first in November, the second already this year, in February, with the Titan Z still to launch, it wouldn't surprise me if the replacement for these also only came later this year, still on 28nm, or even only by March next year, on 20nm or 16 FinFet.
Both AMD and Nvidia will have to rely on architectural efficiency improvements to carry them this year.Edited by tpi2007 - 4/18/14 at 6:14pm