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[VC] AMD: No 20nm GPUs this year - Page 6

post #51 of 146
It crazy we have been in 28nm for 3 years. Dammm.
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post #52 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Usario View Post

TSMC's 16nm FinFET is the performance 20nm node. It's literally just 20nm with FinFETs instead of planar transistors and will not take that long to become available after 20nm. There probably won't even need to be a rehash generation of 20nm GPUs because of this; they'll just go straight to 16nm.
This.
16nm will be shipping Q1 2015 as long as we don't see delays. So we will see high end 16nm parts sometime summer of next year, maybe fall.
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post #53 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZealotKi11er View Post

It crazy we have been in 28nm for 3 years. Dammm.

you have been at 28nm for 3years, I'm still at 45nm. sad-smiley-002.gifsad-smiley-002.gifsad-smiley-002.gif


oh the heat the heat the God Awful Unbearable Heat.
    
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post #54 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeanBruce View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZealotKi11er View Post

It crazy we have been in 28nm for 3 years. Dammm.

you have been at 28nm for 3years, I'm still at 45nm. sad-smiley-002.gifsad-smiley-002.gifsad-smiley-002.gif


oh the heat the heat the God Awful Unbearable Heat.


You're at 40nm, not 45nm.

28nm all the way this year, it's feasible as long as AMD has an architecture as efficient as Nvidia's Maxwell.
 
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post #55 of 146
NVIDIA will release something though. AMD maybe Q1 since they were late on the R9s. But Maxwells on 28nm? Doubtful. Possible but underwhelming, only if they are desperate. It's probably 20nm NVIDIA before Christmas and AMD 20nm couple of months later with many fireworks in christmas to direct attention from NVIDIA. No way Apple has A8s on 20nm on sale in Christmas on iPhones and NVIDIA is selling 28nm. This stinks marketing misdirection by both of them for selling GPUs in the Summer. Intel was explicit about it in a financials interview last year: You talk about next gen, you tank your current gen. And this is the exact period this might happen for GPUs. Talking about the next gen kills their sales for more than 4 months! It's imperative to avoid talking about it. It's preferable to say they are "ruined" for a year than say "we gonna have something in 6 months that makes what you buy now a stupid decision".
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post #56 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by fateswarm View Post

NVIDIA will release something though. AMD maybe Q1 since they were late on the R9s. But Maxwells on 28nm? Doubtful. Possible but underwhelming, only if they are desperate. It's probably 20nm NVIDIA before Christmas and AMD 20nm couple of months later with many fireworks in christmas to direct attention from NVIDIA. No way Apple has A8s on 20nm on sale in Christmas on iPhones and NVIDIA is selling 28nm. This stinks marketing misdirection by both of them for selling GPUs in the Summer. Intel was explicit about it in a financials interview last year: You talk about next gen, you tank your current gen. And this is the exact period this might happen for GPUs. Talking about the next gen kills their sales for more than 4 months! It's imperative to avoid talking about it. It's preferable to say they are "ruined" for a year than say "we gonna have something in 6 months that makes what you buy now a stupid decision".

But a mobile chip is easier and less expensive to make than a big die GPU (besides, Apple more than likely takes precedence and what little 20nm capacity there is goes to them), especially since Maxwell has a lot more L2 cache than Kepler. The GTX 750 Ti and 750, for example have 2 Megabytes of L2 cache, that is 8 times more than the chip it's replacing, and it's even more than the 1.5 Megabytes GK110 has (GTX 780 Ti, Titan Black, etc), so the midrange and high-end Maxwell chips will most probably have even more.

Also, as an example, if Intel really wanted, they could technically deliver the CPU part of Haswell on 45nm with a 95w TDP, perhaps even a bit less. What I mean is that architectural efficiency improvements don't necessarily need a new manufacturing process. Intel has taken the die shrinks to cram in the GPU (and the memory controller), along with CPU improvements, but if you were to take a 45nm Core 2 Quad Q9000 series and compared it to a Core i7 4000 series made on 45nm without the GPU, my bet is that the Haswell part could fit in the same 95w TDP and it is obviously quite a bit faster.

As to talking about the future spoiling the current product line, that has always been the case, it's unavoidable, they only have to do one thing: lower prices to sell the remaining stock, people will buy into a good deal.

Also, it seems quite improbable that Nvidia would go all the way until December without new offerings.

The GTX 770 and GTX 760 need replacing asap, for example. They are both unoptimal stop gap solutions (the first more than the latter) to the problem they created by making the first GK104 series a high-end product. Maxwell on 28nm would be a great way to improve the offering in the mid-range at a lower TDP with great yields on a mature process. Besides, everybody can tell that these two GPUs are now getting old in the market, the GTX 770 will be one year old in May and the GTX 760 in June. At least at the high-end Nvidia released the GTX 780 Ti and Titan Black more recently, the first in November, the second already this year, in February, with the Titan Z still to launch, it wouldn't surprise me if the replacement for these also only came later this year, still on 28nm, or even only by March next year, on 20nm or 16 FinFet.

Both AMD and Nvidia will have to rely on architectural efficiency improvements to carry them this year.
Edited by tpi2007 - 4/18/14 at 6:14pm
 
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post #57 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragonsyph View Post

Lol intel already show cased 14nm. So i dont see why they had trouble with 20nm
Intel's fab production is second to none as well.
post #58 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by tpi2007 View Post

But a mobile chip is easier and less expensive to make than a big die GPU (besides, Apple more than likely takes precedence and what little 20nm capacity there is goes to them), especially since Maxwell has a lot more L2 cache than Kepler. The GTX 750 Ti and 750, for example have 2 Megabytes of L2 cache, that is 8 times more than the chip it's replacing, and it's even more than the 1.5 Megabytes GK110 has (GTX 780 Ti, Titan Black, etc), so the midrange and high-end Maxwell chips will most probably have even more.

Also, as an example, if Intel really wanted, they could technically deliver the CPU part of Haswell on 45nm with a 95w TDP, perhaps even a bit less. What I mean is that architectural efficiency improvements don't necessarily need a new manufacturing process. Intel has taken the die shrinks to cram in the GPU (and the memory controller), along with CPU improvements, but if you were to take a 45nm Core 2 Quad Q9000 series and compared it to a Core i7 4000 series made on 45nm without the GPU, my bet is that the Haswell part could fit in the same 95w TDP and it is obviously quite a bit faster.

As to talking about the future spoiling the current product line, that has always been the case, it's unavoidable, they only have to do one thing: lower prices to sell the remaining stock, people will buy into a good deal.

Also, it seems quite improbable that Nvidia would go all the way until December without new offerings.

The GTX 770 and GTX 760 need replacing asap, for example. They are both unoptimal stop gap solutions (the first more than the latter) to the problem they created by making the first GK104 series a high-end product. Maxwell on 28nm would be a great way to improve the offering in the mid-range at a lower TDP with great yields on a mature process. Besides, everybody can tell that these two GPUs are now getting old in the market, the GTX 770 will be one year old in May and the GTX 760 in June. At least at the high-end Nvidia released the GTX 780 Ti and Titan Black more recently, the first in November, the second already this year, in February, with the Titan Z still to launch, it wouldn't surprise me if the replacement for these also only came later this year, still on 28nm, or even only by March next year, on 20nm or 16 FinFet.

Both AMD and Nvidia will have to rely on architectural efficiency improvements to carry them this year.

Concerning Apple, yes, it's a smaller chip (likely) but it's gonna be ready very soon, so we're talking about a TSMC with months of experience before NVIDIA would start printing.

In theory, yes, bigger chips, warmer chips, but in practice, NVIDIA and AMD can't release faster processors lately without huge dies and big costs and their prices show it.

Good point about the 770 needing replacing, indeed only the 780(plain) seemed logical for that bracket lately. They could pull something small on 28nm but it'd be meh.
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post #59 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by tpi2007 View Post

But a mobile chip is easier and less expensive to make than a big die GPU (besides, Apple more than likely takes precedence and what little 20nm capacity there is goes to them), especially since Maxwell has a lot more L2 cache than Kepler. The GTX 750 Ti and 750, for example have 2 Megabytes of L2 cache, that is 8 times more than the chip it's replacing, and it's even more than the 1.5 Megabytes GK110 has (GTX 780 Ti, Titan Black, etc), so the midrange and high-end Maxwell chips will most probably have even more.

Techreport suggests that the bigger dies won't have more than 2MB L2 cache. I believe that will be the case for GM206/GM106 or GM204/GM104 but not GM200/GM210.
Quote:
Originally Posted by http://techreport.com/review/26050/nvidia-geforce-gtx-750-ti-maxwell-graphics-processor 
Beyond the SM, the other big architectural change in Maxwell is the growth of the L2 cache. The GM107's L2 cache is 2MB, up from just 256KB in the GK107. This larger cache should provide two related benefits: bandwidth amplification for the GPU's external memory and a reduction in the power consumed by doing expensive off-chip I/O. Caches keep growing in importance (and size) for graphics hardware for exactly these reasons. I'm curious to see whether the upcoming larger chips based on Maxwell follow the GM107's lead by including L2 caches eight times the size of their predecessors. That may not happen. Nvidia GPU architect Jonah Alben tells us the L2 cache size in Maxwell is independent of the number of SMs or flops on tap.
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post #60 of 146
Called it! biggrin.gif
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