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post #31 of 40
That isn't quite how quantum mechanics work. In classical mechanics, you roll a ball down a hill and see if it goes over the taller hill on the other side. It does not, ever. With quantum mechanics, there is a chance that it will. There is no 100% guaranteed action in quantum mechanics, but there are events with near 100% and near 0% chances of happening.
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post #32 of 40
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CynicalUnicorn View Post

That isn't quite how quantum mechanics work. In classical mechanics, you roll a ball down a hill and see if it goes over the taller hill on the other side. It does not, ever. With quantum mechanics, there is a chance that it will. There is no 100% guaranteed action in quantum mechanics, but there are events with near 100% and near 0% chances of happening.

I've tried reading up on it for a few times already, but i just can't get my head around it.
It's said, that people generally have a hard time understanding this because it goes against human reasoning. It's as you said about the ball. Everyone knows that the ball can never go over the larger hill unless it's pushed lol.
If you would ask someone if the ball can go over the hill. everyone would reply: no, that's impossible.
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post #33 of 40
It's been said if someone says he understands quantum mechanics, he doesn't understand quantum mechanics. It's mindbogglingly unintuitive. Most physicists work with mathematics through it, not intuition.
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post #34 of 40
In my observation it appears that the gap in current(not legacy) hardware performance keeps getting wider. 10 years ago the difference in performance between the fastest and slowest desktop CPUs measured on a per core (often single core systems) basis, was very narrow, often as little as a +50% or tighter difference among "current" parts. We can go out and buy a brand new desktop CPU today with similar per-core performance as higher end desktop CPUs from 10 years ago (new instructions not withstanding). Example: current Jaguar/Atom etc. Today, The gap between the lowest performing cores and highest performing cores on the desktop among currently shipping parts is more like +500%, and when we include scaling from multicore (within a socket) the gap is even wider (~1000+%). I can under-clock to 1.6ghz and disable all but 1 module on this machine and still do 90% of what I do on this machine relatively unimpeded. The amount of compute overhead in a powerful desktop today is awesomely powerful. A lot of us don't realize what we are sitting in front of. Most higher end desktop CPUs from the last 4 years or so have enough compute performance to support dozens of users on VMs all doing routine "work/research/browsing" etc.

With the "bottom end" really still being stuck at decade old performance, and with high end performance either being shared by many users in enterprise markets or leveraged for specialized workloads, the demand for newer faster CPUs just keeps on reducing, however, the wide gap also means that among the few modern workloads that really are demanding of CPU performance, a potential error in hardware selection can have a far more profound effect. 10 years ago, Picking a Turion or Sempron vs a higher end Athlon, didn't make or break anything. They were all pretty similar. Today, picking a Kabini instead of an i5 could be a serious deal breaker for some software.

With that in mind, we really are in an era where a CPU could potentially have a 10 year service life for some users. The primarily limitation on service life for a CPU will be legacy support on the software side, not necessarily raw performance. I've observed a number of scenarios over the years where an update to a newer piece of hardware solved major performance problems, but on paper, the new hardware isn't supposed to be much faster at all. I have some aluminum foil hat theory on that front. If a haswell i7 has a hard time running a browser or accepting keyboard input without being overwhelmed and stalled out in 2024, you can bet that it has been caused by a bordering-on-disingenious planned obsolescence on the software side rather than because of a compute performance limitation.

Anyway, with that in mind, if you get into a high end CPU today, by the time it is truly transitioning to obsolescence (7+ years), the rest of the machine will probably be up against major interface compatibility hurdles anyway.


GPUs are still in strong-growth era, but the gap between the high end and low end for current (non-legacy) GPU performance is wider than in any other area of computer performance, and this is an area where legacy support is similar to CPU legacy support, 5-7+ years before major software side forced obsolescence shows up, until then, only the low end (lower end integrated) suffers from absolute shut-out in terms of performance requirements for some software. The Wide gap between high end performance and low end performance here (even wider than current CPUs in some ways), means that most software with GPU demands has good adjustability in terms of visual settings to accommodate the wide assortment of performance.


RAM/Motherboard obsolescence is tied to compute obsolescence in most cases, see CPU.


Hard drives and SSDs have a self-solving obsolescence. They die, they always freakin die. I have never seen a hard drive last longer than ~7 years. By that age every single one I have ever owned has problems. (Dozens over the years). I hope to see SSDs change this, but my first foray into an SSD gave only a few years before death, so I'm not holding my breath for long lasting storage drives anytime soon.


PSUs develop connectivity and power-state incompatibilities after 5-7+ years. Buy quality for the sake of quality, don't plan on a 10 year old PSU working in a new computer build. Want proof? Look-up any common PSU from 10 years prior to the release date of the oldest piece of significant hardware in your machine and see if it would be compatible with your current machine. Guaranteed it would require modification and disabled power states to work, and even then might still have problems.


The limits of all the major stuff is ~7 years IMO.
     
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post #35 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdocod View Post

...Today, picking a Kabini instead of an i5 could be a serious deal breaker for some software.

...If a haswell i7 has a hard time running a browser or accepting keyboard input without being overwhelmed and stalled out in 2024, you can bet that it has been caused by a bordering-on-disingenious planned obsolescence on the software side rather than because of a compute performance limitation.

Anyway, with that in mind, if you get into a high end CPU today, by the time it is truly transitioning to obsolescence (7+ years), the rest of the machine will probably be up against major interface compatibility hurdles anyway.

...

RAM/Motherboard obsolescence is tied to compute obsolescence in most cases, see CPU.


Hard drives and SSDs have a self-solving obsolescence. They die, they always freakin die. I have never seen a hard drive last longer than ~7 years. By that age every single one I have ever owned has problems. (Dozens over the years). I hope to see SSDs change this, but my first foray into an SSD gave only a few years before death, so I'm not holding my breath for long lasting storage drives anytime soon.


Kabini vs an i5? Hardly a fair comparison. AMD's cat cores and Intel Atoms are for low-power devices. Some of these chips are running well under 5W. They never were meant to be high-performance chips. i5s, on the other hand, are, and they can afford an 80W TDP (or maybe that's i7s?) rating. Still, that's forty times the rated heat production and therefore energy use of those low-power chips. I doubt a Haswell quadcore is forty times better than an Athlon 5350. Still, I see your point, but the chips have two entirely different purposes.

This is probably true. If an Arduino can act as a keyboard controller, then an i7 better be able to take input from one. And there's always Linux if OS X or Windows drop support for old hardware. I doubt they will though, and Intel has been competing with themselves since either Sandy Bridge or Bulldozer, depending on whether you think Intel's stagnation or AMD's leap backwards was the larger cause. Intel is encouraging companies to upgrade by getting the guys in charge of the budget to compare the money saved on energy costs with last-gen hardware vs the cost of upgrading to new systems. They're safe if they can keep this up and mobile chips don't start to dominate the market.



I don't think motherboards really go bad easily. Better chipsets get you things like more PCIe lanes, SATA ports, and USB ports. Nothing else is really gained. RAM, on the other hand, is a limitation. Clockspeed doesn't matter too much, and neither does latency. It's all about capacity, and there comes a point where that can't be improved. Let's look at the X79 platform for consumers. It supports ridiculously powerful CPUs which should be good to go for a very long time. It supports eight DIMMs, and for consumers, non-ECC DDR3 specifically. That allows 8GB modules, so 64GB of system memory available. Modern systems consider 8GB to be the sweet spot, though 4GB systems are certainly usable. That won't be true for long if we look at ancient history.

When Vista was released in 2006, new desktops with it were shipping with the minimum 512MB. If this happens again in eight years, then X79 can suddenly only support twice that entry-level system's memory capacity. Eight more years and we're looking at half the memory of even the crappiest of systems. Now, I doubt we'll advance that much, but the CPU will not be the limitation by any means. Rather it will be the lack of memory for simply booting Windows 12. Again, Linux to the rescue should that happen.

I do find it funny that programs like Microsoft Word, something with a purpose so simple as word processing, use up as much memory as they do. There is no reason for it. Word was around for the time when RAM was measured in kilobytes. Two SI prefixes later, it's filled with bloat and has no hope of ever running on a 486 system, much less installing onto a single floppy disk.



Early SSDs weren't the greatest. Firmware errors could essentially lead to the drives committing suicide. Right now, they're a mature enough technology that there is no real reason one should die. If you have a UPS or the SSD is in a laptop, you will need to make an effort to kill it. This can be done by writing hundreds of terabytes of data so it runs out of write cycles, or by wearing wool, rolling on your carpet, and touching components because there is no way that can go wrong.
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post #36 of 40
mdocod, absolutely. In fact, Moore's law died the day they claimed it continued with multicores. You don't get to say it continues with multicores Intel, there is a limit to what one can ultimately do with SMP, especially on interactive applications.

In fact(again), I've tailored all my decisions on personal computing, around what you describe. I no longer buy something for the next 4 years max (that ended up being usually 2 or 3). I tailor it for the next ~7 years.

Why not? The CPUs don't seem to bottleneck much, unless one goes to extremes. Though truth be told, it's also because GPU foundries are worse than Intel, though still, both slow down.
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post #37 of 40
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post #38 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by CynicalUnicorn View Post

Kabini vs an i5? Hardly a fair comparison.

There was never any intention of it being a "fair" comparison. The POINT was to dramatize the gap in available per-core performance that is available and being sold as "new, current production" technology. Please do not quote me out of context and then respond to the altered meaning, it is very frustrating.
     
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post #39 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by fateswarm View Post

mdocod, absolutely. In fact, Moore's law died the day they claimed it continued with multicores. You don't get to say it continues with multicores Intel, there is a limit to what one can ultimately do with SMP, especially on interactive applications.

In fact(again), I've tailored all my decisions on personal computing, around what you describe. I no longer buy something for the next 4 years max (that ended up being usually 2 or 3). I tailor it for the next ~7 years.

Why not? The CPUs don't seem to bottleneck much, unless one goes to extremes. Though truth be told, it's also because GPU foundries are worse than Intel, though still, both slow down.

I didn't die that day -,-. Moore's law only says something about transistor density, nothing about performance or frequency.
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post #40 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisaroth View Post

I didn't die that day -,-. Moore's law only says something about transistor density, nothing about performance or frequency.

Transistor count. I don't care if it didn't die for Intel and Mr Moore. It died in my consciousness since we don't get to say it continues with two cores, I was used to SMP motherboards for years, nobody said the transistors were doubled, which was the same thing programmatically.

Sure we get advantages on SMP.

But it has limits, it can't do all.
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4790K 4.6G 1.24v/1.74v, 5.1G 1.35v validation. GA-Z97X-Gaming 7 Tri-X R9 290 1100/1350 +0.012v G.Skill 2400 c10 
CoolingMonitorPowerCase
Noctua NH-D15 24EA53 IPS 76Hz OC EVGA 1000 G2 Phanteks Enthoo Pro 
Audio
SoundMagic E10 
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