Originally Posted by Clocknut
honestly I dont see GM200 on non-Titan Geforce @ 28nm to take on AMD's GCN unless Nvidia want to sell 600mm2 mammoth size chip at consumer price. (I am assuming GM200 is 50% larger than GM204)
AMD brute force the 390x may be still able to hand on pretty well or beat GM204, while waiting GM200 to get a process node shrink. So I think they are going to be fine for now.
Nvidia has more reason to make a big chip than AMD.
Nvidia's professional card division regularly makes 200+ million dollars a quarter. Considering Nvidia 75% marketshare and generally higher prices in the promarket, AMD would be lucky to have even 50 million dollars in revenue a quarter.
Considering these numbers, Nvidia can produce big dies and actually make money from them because of the margins on the professional cards. Thus they can justify a 600mm2 card because they already have their foothold in the door in the market and thus, it will pay for the R and D and manufacturing costs of such a big chip.
If Nvidia only sold GK110 cards as only consumer cards, they would actually lose money due to the heavy R and D burden and the cost of the chips. Its the professional markets which pays for these cards, something AMD doesn't have enough of to justify the creation of a big chip.
The only company that could justify a big GPU at 20nm or in general is Nvidia and even they find its too risky to do a 20nm chip. So unless AMD wants to risk losing hundreds of million of dollars, they are not making a big die 20nm anytime in 2015. They don't have the professional market to justify the risk.
A brute force 390x seems like a misguided halo products that seems destined to lose money because professional companies care about performance per watt and more importantly don't want something that needs AIO cooling. AMD could scale clocks down so it can use air cooling, but than you got something very close to a hawaii like performance and product.
A big chip that is primarily for the consumer market, which Fiji looks like with its AIO cooler, needs to pay service to the professional market first and look to selling consumers as secondary customers.Edited by tajoh111 - 10/8/14 at 9:00pm