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[AMD] Appoints Dr. Lisa Su as President and Chief Executive Officer - Page 6

post #51 of 176
honestly I dont see GM200 on non-Titan Geforce @ 28nm to take on AMD's GCN unless Nvidia want to sell 600mm2 mammoth size chip at consumer price. (I am assuming GM200 is 50% larger than GM204)

AMD brute force the 390x may be still able to hand on pretty well or beat GM204, while waiting GM200 to get a process node shrink. So I think they are going to be fine for now.
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post #52 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoxile View Post

Let's crowdsource a buyout
Yeah, at the current market cap of 2.5 billion, if every Overclock.net member pitched in, it would average out to $6400 each.

But, if we got reddit /r/funny involved, every person would only have to donated 10 dollars each day for three weeks to buy AMD...
Edited by SandGlass - 10/8/14 at 7:58pm
post #53 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocknut View Post

honestly I dont see GM200 on non-Titan Geforce @ 28nm to take on AMD's GCN unless Nvidia want to sell 600mm2 mammoth size chip at consumer price. (I am assuming GM200 is 50% larger than GM204)

AMD brute force the 390x may be still able to hand on pretty well or beat GM204, while waiting GM200 to get a process node shrink. So I think they are going to be fine for now.

Nvidia has more reason to make a big chip than AMD.

Nvidia's professional card division regularly makes 200+ million dollars a quarter. Considering Nvidia 75% marketshare and generally higher prices in the promarket, AMD would be lucky to have even 50 million dollars in revenue a quarter.

Considering these numbers, Nvidia can produce big dies and actually make money from them because of the margins on the professional cards. Thus they can justify a 600mm2 card because they already have their foothold in the door in the market and thus, it will pay for the R and D and manufacturing costs of such a big chip.

If Nvidia only sold GK110 cards as only consumer cards, they would actually lose money due to the heavy R and D burden and the cost of the chips. Its the professional markets which pays for these cards, something AMD doesn't have enough of to justify the creation of a big chip.

The only company that could justify a big GPU at 20nm or in general is Nvidia and even they find its too risky to do a 20nm chip. So unless AMD wants to risk losing hundreds of million of dollars, they are not making a big die 20nm anytime in 2015. They don't have the professional market to justify the risk.

A brute force 390x seems like a misguided halo products that seems destined to lose money because professional companies care about performance per watt and more importantly don't want something that needs AIO cooling. AMD could scale clocks down so it can use air cooling, but than you got something very close to a hawaii like performance and product.

A big chip that is primarily for the consumer market, which Fiji looks like with its AIO cooler, needs to pay service to the professional market first and look to selling consumers as secondary customers.
Edited by tajoh111 - 10/8/14 at 9:00pm
post #54 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoxile View Post

Let's crowdsource a buyout

I am in, as long as I can give a hair cut to the unsecureds through a pre pack, and take the company private after the process...lol
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post #55 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

The problem Tonga is a sign of things to come. AMD next generation APU's are using it too and I predict fiji will be using it too.

If GM200 comes out and deals with fiji the same way GM204 deals with Tonga, expect AMD to sell their products at or near cost to sell.

With AMD generally losing CPU division + a strong possibility of a losing GPU division(until something better than GCN comes along), AMD console division won't be strong enough to keep it from losing money. AMD GPU represents much of the value AMD's as company.

Tonga gets outclassed from a chip that came out at the same time, uses the same power, has near the same amount of transistors, is close to the same size, same manufacturing process. etc
Well that doesn't really have to hold any truth if they can port the compression to the APU's it will elevate their bandwidth problems and thus make it easier to use 512SPs to the fullest rather than end up behind the Gddr5 version of the 7750.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

They also increased the tesselation power of the chip and made it fully HSA compliant.

What I am worried about is AMD has really slowed down their research to get costs under control. I wouldn't doubt Nvidia has 3x the R and D budget as AMD Graphic division when you consider all AMD has to research and Nvidia's R and D being 20% still.

It wouldn't surprise me if AMD is going to ride out GCN for awhile considering how long they rode out VLIW.
They are using their semi custom business to pay of their R&D while not counting it as R&D expense because it isn't an expense if nothing is payed. They also reuse their IP by making it in easy to reassemble by putting it into usable blocks. So even though they have less resources they will hold their own which is quite admirable.
Edited by maarten12100 - 10/8/14 at 11:49pm
post #56 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

snip

You seem to have no clue. AMD's focus is on 5 areas where they are confident of growth - semi-custom, dense servers, embdedded, professional graphics and ultra low power client. AMD has for the first time in recent years hit 25% market share in pro graphics. This is a high mark for AMD which traditionally had 15% market share.

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/workstation-market-breaks-out-to-record-setting-quarter-in-q214/

btw your assumption that AMD has no architectural or power efficiency improvements in store for R9 390X is your personal view. the reality will be revealed when the product makes its debut and is reviewed by the tech press. the R9 390x performance is unknown as is its efficiency.
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post #57 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoxile View Post

What in the world is going on at AMD? Unless this was planned from the start.

Well, now AMD and Nvidia are both headed by Asians. Let's see if Intel joins the party sometime soon.

The difference is Jensen is co-founder of NVIDIA whereas Lisa is not.
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post #58 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post

You seem to have no clue. AMD's focus is on 5 areas where they are confident of growth - semi-custom, dense servers, embdedded, professional graphics and ultra low power client. AMD has for the first time in recent years hit 25% market share in pro graphics. This is a high mark for AMD which traditionally had 15% market share.

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/workstation-market-breaks-out-to-record-setting-quarter-in-q214/

btw your assumption that AMD has no architectural or power efficiency improvements in store for R9 390X is your personal view. the reality will be revealed when the product makes its debut and is reviewed by the tech press. the R9 390x performance is unknown as is its efficiency.

Thats why I mentioned Nvidia has 75% of the marketshare, which implies AMD has 25% of the rest. Just think about this logically for a second.

Nvidias professional market typically gives them 200+ million in revenue a quarter. Remove this 200+ million and what happens to Nvidia's net profit?

They would be taking in a loss because they don't generate that much net profit.

AMD doesn't have close to this much revenue coming in from their professional division. They charge less for their cards and they have only 25% marketshare. Big GPU dies, that are good at compute are the most expensive to produce(large dies) and they are R and D intensive.

If AMD wants to make dies as big or bigger than Nvidia, they are going to need the professional market to succeed. The problem is they don't have the marketshare or supercomputing projects to be predictable profitable from such projects. Their marketshare isn't going to jump to 70% percent in 1 quarter. You know this.

Raghu78. Stuff like HBM and 20nm(this is pretty much impossible, as I explained earlier as die prices are off the charts for minimal benefit) are all rumored at this point. The only thing confirmed is the ASETEK cooler for AMD which is a single GPU cooler. What does such a cooler imply for AMD high end? It implies TDP is exceptionally high and a high TDP correlates with high power usage. Both of which are undesirable for the professional market, particularly the supercomputing one. If AMD made big efficiency improvements it wouldn't need such a cooler.

I have a bad feeling about AMD after the tonga launch. Since the Tonga launch AMD's stock has fallen over 28%(when was the last time it dropped this much so fast, just before bulldozer). It's no secret AMD needs the graphic division to make money because the CPU division loses so much and the console revenue only can do so much.
Edited by tajoh111 - 10/9/14 at 1:42am
post #59 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

Thats why I mentioned Nvidia has 75% of the marketshare, which implies AMD has 25% of the rest. Just think about this logically for a second.

Nvidias professional market typically gives them 200+ million in revenue a quarter. Remove this 200+ million and what happens to Nvidia's net profit?

They would be taking in a loss because they don't generate that much net profit.

AMD doesn't have close to this much revenue coming in from their professional division. They charge less for their cards and they have only 25% marketshare. Big GPU dies, that are good at compute are the most expensive to produce(large dies) and they are R and D intensive.

If AMD wants to make dies as big or bigger than Nvidia, they are going to need the professional market to succeed. The problem is they don't have the marketshare or supercomputing projects to be predictable profitable from such projects. Their marketshare isn't going to jump to 70% percent in 1 quarter. You know this.
If memory serves me right, AMD makes 300M+ each quarter from console sales, so in and of itself AMD's "small" die strategy might be paying off as much as what you mentioned Nvidia makes from the professional sector. I wrote this to imply that AMD shouldn't intend following Nvidia's bigdie strategy anytime soon. AMD's Q2 2014 revenues (Click to show)
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post #60 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtcn77 View Post

If memory serves me right, AMD makes 300M+ each quarter from console sales, so in and of itself AMD's "small" die strategy might be paying off as much as what you mentioned Nvidia makes from the professional sector. I wrote this to imply that AMD shouldn't intend following Nvidia's bigdie strategy anytime soon. AMD's Q2 2014 revenues (Click to show)

Revenue doesn't translate into gross profits directly. The last time it was mentioned, margins for the consoles were in the midteens.

Thus 300 million = 45 million which has to make up for the losses in the other divisions.

http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1948613&highlight=

Zoom down to where you find interest expense? How much does it equal?

46 million dollars which is just enough to eat up their console revenue.
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