Originally Posted by PostalTwinkie
I think Elon and his crew are going to crack the shell on EV for the masses, and mainly with their advancement in battery technology. The one and only thing that has kept EV from the masses is the storage and charging technology. Elon knows this, he is building an entire factory to help crack that issue, plus god only knows what R&D.
I predict that over the next 10 years we will see a very steep decline in the number of ICE vehicles on the road/being sold. Within 20-25 years the only ones you will see will be considered collectibles, as most will be well into EVs.
The real concern is the world economy when it happens, how it adjusts. Oil won't go away, but the demand for it will absolutely result in a shrinking of that industry. I would love to see the use of fossil fules end within the next 100 years, but that might be a bit of a dream.
Unfortunately electric cars will remain to be a niche purchase for wealthy multi-car households for a very long time. The Jones' family in their nice 2 car garage home where he drives to and from the office and she picks up the kids and runs errands will certainly all have an electric car 10 to 15 years from now, but that's about it.
The turning point will be when the technology and infrastructure are there for commercial side. When an electric 18 wheeler can be purchased and maintained for the same cost as a diesel fuel one and be able to stop in any town across the country to be able to re-charge it's batteries quickly and get 500+ miles on it's charge carrying 25+ ton loads, then it will change in short order.
That technology doesn't even exist yet, let alone the slow adoption rate since work trucks are usually more of a every decade purchase than a yearly purchase. When you consider that, while admirable, your estimates on time are wildly aggressive to the point of being a pipe dream.