Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Hardware News › [RWT] What’s Next for Moore’s Law? For Intel, III+V = 10nm QWFETs
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

[RWT] What’s Next for Moore’s Law? For Intel, III+V = 10nm QWFETs

post #1 of 12
Thread Starter 
Quote:
On the eve of the 50th anniversary of Moore’s Law, the future of silicon CMOS is an open question. Scaling to future process technologies is increasingly challenging; Intel ran into yield problems at 14nm, and many other companies are grumbling about the increase in wafer costs. At the same time, the performance and power benefits from shrinking to a new process have changed.

Historically, transistor performance (i.e. delay), operating voltage, and transistor current all scaled in tandem with geometry. As a result, the power consumption of a transistor scaled down quadratically, and overall power density stayed constant – even as the transistor density exploded (courtesy of Moore’s Law). This phenomenon was codified by Robert Dennard and a team of researchers from IBM in 1975, hence the name – Dennard scaling.

However, Dennard scaling broke down in the early 2000’s as David Wang noted in his report on IEDM 2005. Performance could no longer be increased through geometry alone, and power became a tremendous problem. Power consumption comes in two flavors – static power, due to leakage current through the transistors, and dynamic power, due to switching activity in transistors.


Read the Rest
Edited by hajile - 5/17/15 at 11:22pm
post #2 of 12
This is the writers prediction, not what is 100 percent for sure going to happen.

Needs to be in rumors section.
Scorpion Moose
(21 items)
 
  
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
3570K @ 4.6ghz (1.38 Voltage) Asus Z77 Sabertooth Zotac Amp! Omega GTX 980 Ti 8GB Samsung 30nm @2133 11-11-11-28-1T (1.55 vol... 
Hard DriveHard DriveCoolingCooling
Crucial MX300 750gb 3TB Toshiba 7200rpm  Corsair H105 5 GT AP-15's, 1 Noiseblocker 40mm 
OSMonitorKeyboardPower
Windows 8.1 Pro ASUS PB277Q Razer Blackwidow Ultimate Stealth 2016 Seasonic X 1050 
CaseMouseMouse PadAudio
Corsair 600C Razer Deathadder Chroma Razer Goliathus Control Creative X-FI Titanium HD 
OtherOtherOtherOther
Gelid GC Extreme Thermal Compound Mad Catz Street Fighter V TES+ Logitech F310 Mad Catz Street Fighter V Chun-Li TE2 
  hide details  
Reply
Scorpion Moose
(21 items)
 
  
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
3570K @ 4.6ghz (1.38 Voltage) Asus Z77 Sabertooth Zotac Amp! Omega GTX 980 Ti 8GB Samsung 30nm @2133 11-11-11-28-1T (1.55 vol... 
Hard DriveHard DriveCoolingCooling
Crucial MX300 750gb 3TB Toshiba 7200rpm  Corsair H105 5 GT AP-15's, 1 Noiseblocker 40mm 
OSMonitorKeyboardPower
Windows 8.1 Pro ASUS PB277Q Razer Blackwidow Ultimate Stealth 2016 Seasonic X 1050 
CaseMouseMouse PadAudio
Corsair 600C Razer Deathadder Chroma Razer Goliathus Control Creative X-FI Titanium HD 
OtherOtherOtherOther
Gelid GC Extreme Thermal Compound Mad Catz Street Fighter V TES+ Logitech F310 Mad Catz Street Fighter V Chun-Li TE2 
  hide details  
Reply
post #3 of 12
Either a transition from silicon to a different material will be necessary soon or an entire paradigm shift in computing.
The girlfriend.
(15 items)
 
The Mistress
(13 items)
 
Media Server
(11 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
A8-6410 Lenovo Lancer 4B2 K16.3 R5 128 Shaders/M230 Hynix 8GB DDR3 1600 
Hard DriveHard DriveOSMonitor
Samsung 840 120 GB SSD Seagate Momentus 1TB 5400rmp Win 8.1 CMN1487 TN LED 14" 1366*768 
KeyboardPowerMouseMouse Pad
Lenovo AccuType 2900mAh/41Wh Elan Trackpad/Logitech M90 Super Flower 
Audio
AMD Avalon(Connexant) 
  hide details  
Reply
The girlfriend.
(15 items)
 
The Mistress
(13 items)
 
Media Server
(11 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
A8-6410 Lenovo Lancer 4B2 K16.3 R5 128 Shaders/M230 Hynix 8GB DDR3 1600 
Hard DriveHard DriveOSMonitor
Samsung 840 120 GB SSD Seagate Momentus 1TB 5400rmp Win 8.1 CMN1487 TN LED 14" 1366*768 
KeyboardPowerMouseMouse Pad
Lenovo AccuType 2900mAh/41Wh Elan Trackpad/Logitech M90 Super Flower 
Audio
AMD Avalon(Connexant) 
  hide details  
Reply
post #4 of 12
Getting EUV to work in production volume will probably be the short term solution. I haven't read about this QWFET before, that's interesting read. But even that'll only allow scaling for a few more shrinks, after that 3D stacking will probably be the way to go. Then maybe quantum computing after that.
FairladyZ
(14 items)
 
Twin Turbo S2000
(13 items)
 
Skyline
(13 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Core i7 2600k Asus P8Z68-M Pro MSI GTX970 Gaming 4G Corsair Ballistix Sport DDR3-1600 16GB 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
Western Digital Black Hybrid 1TB WD10S12X Asus BW-12B1ST Thermaltake WATER2.0 Pro Windows 7 Ultimate x64 SP1 
MonitorMonitorKeyboardPower
MAG Innovision 22 inch LCD Samsung SyncMaster 2220wm Microsoft Sidewinder X4 Antec Earthwatts 750w 
CaseMouse
Cooler Master Elite 430 Microsoft Trackball Optical 1.0 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Q6600 (@3.4ghz, lapped) ASRock P45TurboTwins2000 HD4850 (@800gpu/1087mem) Patriot PC2-6400 2x2GB 
Hard DriveOptical DriveOSMonitor
WD6400AALS/WD6400AAKS Emprex DVD±RW Win7 Ultimate x86/XP Pro(Dual Boot) MAG 22" WS LCD 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
HP 5302H Multimedia Keyboard Antec Basiq 500w + Ultra Xconnect 500w Cooler Master Mystique 632S Microsoft Trackball Optical 1.0 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Athlon X2 4600+ (@2.75ghz, lapped) ECS KN1 Lite Sapphire X1950GT 512mb (@681/661) 2x1GB Mushikin DDR400 
Hard DriveOptical DriveOSMonitor
Hitachi 80GB Maddog DVD-RW Windows XP Pro SP2 Mag 22" WS LCD LT2219WDB 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
Hewlett Packard 5302H Apevia 500w Generic CompUSA Microsoft Trackball Optical 1.0 
Mouse Pad
None 
  hide details  
Reply
FairladyZ
(14 items)
 
Twin Turbo S2000
(13 items)
 
Skyline
(13 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Core i7 2600k Asus P8Z68-M Pro MSI GTX970 Gaming 4G Corsair Ballistix Sport DDR3-1600 16GB 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
Western Digital Black Hybrid 1TB WD10S12X Asus BW-12B1ST Thermaltake WATER2.0 Pro Windows 7 Ultimate x64 SP1 
MonitorMonitorKeyboardPower
MAG Innovision 22 inch LCD Samsung SyncMaster 2220wm Microsoft Sidewinder X4 Antec Earthwatts 750w 
CaseMouse
Cooler Master Elite 430 Microsoft Trackball Optical 1.0 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Q6600 (@3.4ghz, lapped) ASRock P45TurboTwins2000 HD4850 (@800gpu/1087mem) Patriot PC2-6400 2x2GB 
Hard DriveOptical DriveOSMonitor
WD6400AALS/WD6400AAKS Emprex DVD±RW Win7 Ultimate x86/XP Pro(Dual Boot) MAG 22" WS LCD 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
HP 5302H Multimedia Keyboard Antec Basiq 500w + Ultra Xconnect 500w Cooler Master Mystique 632S Microsoft Trackball Optical 1.0 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Athlon X2 4600+ (@2.75ghz, lapped) ECS KN1 Lite Sapphire X1950GT 512mb (@681/661) 2x1GB Mushikin DDR400 
Hard DriveOptical DriveOSMonitor
Hitachi 80GB Maddog DVD-RW Windows XP Pro SP2 Mag 22" WS LCD LT2219WDB 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
Hewlett Packard 5302H Apevia 500w Generic CompUSA Microsoft Trackball Optical 1.0 
Mouse Pad
None 
  hide details  
Reply
post #5 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liranan View Post

Either a transition from silicon to a different material will be necessary soon or an entire paradigm shift in computing.

With higher manufacturing costs yielding to higher prices for the consumer. We have been using silicon since the dawn of time for chips. Prices were market driven mainly or better said no competition driven. If we factor in a change in the manufacturing process that may raise costs we need to pay for that.
 
QUEEN OF BLADES
(15 items)
 
ASUS U6Sg
(15 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
I7 920 REV D0@4.2 HT Asus Rampage II Extreme CFX: ASUS R9 270X DCUII 6GB DDR3 XMP CL6 TRIDENT 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
Vertex 2 180 GB+RAID 0 2 * 1 TB SAMSUNG Sony Optiarc Labelflash Thermalright Venoumous X W7 X64 Ultimate RETAIL 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
Dell U2410 IPS Logitech Corsair CMPSU-850TX Antec 1200 
MouseMouse PadAudio
Logitech HAMA Xonar STX / Auzen Forte 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
XEON 5650X @4.45 GHz  Rampage III Formula PCGH CFX: ASUS R9 280X DCUII 16GB G-SKILL CL9@ 1643 MHz 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
1x 850 Pro 256 GB + 1xWD 500 GB + 2x3TB WD RED Plextor PX-L89OSA Thermalright VX W10 X64 Ultimate RETAIL 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
ACER B203W Razer Deathstalker Corsair CMPSU-750TX Antec 902 
MouseMouse PadAudio
Logitech G800S Logitech Gaming  Creative Titanium HD + FiiO E17 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel Core 2 Duo : T8300 Asus U6000Sg Series Notebook NVIDIA 9300 GS 4GB Kingston CL4 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
Hitachi Ultrastar Asus POS Stock Asus with MX3 W7 x64 Ultimate RETAIL 
MonitorAudio
Asus 12.1 " LED Creative X-Fi EX54 
  hide details  
Reply
 
QUEEN OF BLADES
(15 items)
 
ASUS U6Sg
(15 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
I7 920 REV D0@4.2 HT Asus Rampage II Extreme CFX: ASUS R9 270X DCUII 6GB DDR3 XMP CL6 TRIDENT 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
Vertex 2 180 GB+RAID 0 2 * 1 TB SAMSUNG Sony Optiarc Labelflash Thermalright Venoumous X W7 X64 Ultimate RETAIL 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
Dell U2410 IPS Logitech Corsair CMPSU-850TX Antec 1200 
MouseMouse PadAudio
Logitech HAMA Xonar STX / Auzen Forte 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
XEON 5650X @4.45 GHz  Rampage III Formula PCGH CFX: ASUS R9 280X DCUII 16GB G-SKILL CL9@ 1643 MHz 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
1x 850 Pro 256 GB + 1xWD 500 GB + 2x3TB WD RED Plextor PX-L89OSA Thermalright VX W10 X64 Ultimate RETAIL 
MonitorKeyboardPowerCase
ACER B203W Razer Deathstalker Corsair CMPSU-750TX Antec 902 
MouseMouse PadAudio
Logitech G800S Logitech Gaming  Creative Titanium HD + FiiO E17 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Intel Core 2 Duo : T8300 Asus U6000Sg Series Notebook NVIDIA 9300 GS 4GB Kingston CL4 
Hard DriveOptical DriveCoolingOS
Hitachi Ultrastar Asus POS Stock Asus with MX3 W7 x64 Ultimate RETAIL 
MonitorAudio
Asus 12.1 " LED Creative X-Fi EX54 
  hide details  
Reply
post #6 of 12
Times are getting tough for new manufacturing spec.. however, with intel's R&D budget. I'm sure something will be implemented here in the next few years when silicon no longer poses a viable substance to use < 10nm transistors.
post #7 of 12
I heard there will be a shift from silicon to graphen but thats in long term.
Little monster
(17 items)
 
  
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Ivy Bridge Core i5 3570 @ stock Asus P8 Z77-V LX Powercolor 7870 PCS+ EZ 4x2 = 8GB Corsair 1600 Mhz XMS @ 1333 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveCooling
Sandisk 120 GB Extreme Sata III 2 TB WD Intellipower Green External converted t... 4 TB WD 5400 RPM Green Internal Xigmatek Loki 
OSMonitorMonitorKeyboard
Win 8.1 -64 bit Philips 190vW D-sub 1440x900 LG 29'' 2560x1080 Logitech Cordless Internet Pro 
PowerCaseMouseAudio
Xigmatek Tauro 500 Watt 80+ Bronze Zalman Z5 Plus Logitech Cordless Optical Mouse Onboard 
Other
Xigmatek Freezing Point Thermal Paste 
  hide details  
Reply
Little monster
(17 items)
 
  
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Ivy Bridge Core i5 3570 @ stock Asus P8 Z77-V LX Powercolor 7870 PCS+ EZ 4x2 = 8GB Corsair 1600 Mhz XMS @ 1333 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveCooling
Sandisk 120 GB Extreme Sata III 2 TB WD Intellipower Green External converted t... 4 TB WD 5400 RPM Green Internal Xigmatek Loki 
OSMonitorMonitorKeyboard
Win 8.1 -64 bit Philips 190vW D-sub 1440x900 LG 29'' 2560x1080 Logitech Cordless Internet Pro 
PowerCaseMouseAudio
Xigmatek Tauro 500 Watt 80+ Bronze Zalman Z5 Plus Logitech Cordless Optical Mouse Onboard 
Other
Xigmatek Freezing Point Thermal Paste 
  hide details  
Reply
post #8 of 12
My issue with shrinking dies is that the smaller the surface area the harder it is to keep cool. Imagine trying to cool the tip of a needle with liquid coolers. Die shrinkage is great so long as the die itself remains larger enough to transfer heat. Now fabrication of a die process doesn't mean the die is smaller, just an FYI. Plenty of cool huge Intel ridiculously small processed chips.
Edited by SpeedyVT - 5/18/15 at 3:33am
Power Tower
(22 items)
 
SteamBox
(9 items)
 
Doge Miner
(7 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Ryzen 1700X AX370-Gaming 5 AMD Radeon R9 200 Series G.Skill DDR4-2400 
RAMRAMRAMHard Drive
G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 Samsung 840 Pro 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveHard Drive
CX300 Crucial 480GB Toshiba 4TB Toshbia 4TB Western Digital Black 1TB 
CoolingOSMonitorMonitor
h110i Windows 10 42" LG TV 20" Digitizer ASUS 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
Corsair Vengeance Mechanical Keyboard  850watt Vampire Gold Rated NZXT S340 Elite Corsair RGB FPS Mouse 
Mouse PadAudio
Borderlands Mousepad Realtek HD 
  hide details  
Reply
Power Tower
(22 items)
 
SteamBox
(9 items)
 
Doge Miner
(7 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Ryzen 1700X AX370-Gaming 5 AMD Radeon R9 200 Series G.Skill DDR4-2400 
RAMRAMRAMHard Drive
G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 Samsung 840 Pro 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveHard Drive
CX300 Crucial 480GB Toshiba 4TB Toshbia 4TB Western Digital Black 1TB 
CoolingOSMonitorMonitor
h110i Windows 10 42" LG TV 20" Digitizer ASUS 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
Corsair Vengeance Mechanical Keyboard  850watt Vampire Gold Rated NZXT S340 Elite Corsair RGB FPS Mouse 
Mouse PadAudio
Borderlands Mousepad Realtek HD 
  hide details  
Reply
post #9 of 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liranan View Post

Either a transition from silicon to a different material will be necessary soon or an entire paradigm shift in computing.

Something with better thermal transference than silicone.
Power Tower
(22 items)
 
SteamBox
(9 items)
 
Doge Miner
(7 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Ryzen 1700X AX370-Gaming 5 AMD Radeon R9 200 Series G.Skill DDR4-2400 
RAMRAMRAMHard Drive
G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 Samsung 840 Pro 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveHard Drive
CX300 Crucial 480GB Toshiba 4TB Toshbia 4TB Western Digital Black 1TB 
CoolingOSMonitorMonitor
h110i Windows 10 42" LG TV 20" Digitizer ASUS 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
Corsair Vengeance Mechanical Keyboard  850watt Vampire Gold Rated NZXT S340 Elite Corsair RGB FPS Mouse 
Mouse PadAudio
Borderlands Mousepad Realtek HD 
  hide details  
Reply
Power Tower
(22 items)
 
SteamBox
(9 items)
 
Doge Miner
(7 items)
 
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
Ryzen 1700X AX370-Gaming 5 AMD Radeon R9 200 Series G.Skill DDR4-2400 
RAMRAMRAMHard Drive
G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 G.Skill DDR4-2400 Samsung 840 Pro 
Hard DriveHard DriveHard DriveHard Drive
CX300 Crucial 480GB Toshiba 4TB Toshbia 4TB Western Digital Black 1TB 
CoolingOSMonitorMonitor
h110i Windows 10 42" LG TV 20" Digitizer ASUS 
KeyboardPowerCaseMouse
Corsair Vengeance Mechanical Keyboard  850watt Vampire Gold Rated NZXT S340 Elite Corsair RGB FPS Mouse 
Mouse PadAudio
Borderlands Mousepad Realtek HD 
  hide details  
Reply
post #10 of 12
This is an editorial. We don't know what Intel will do for 10nm. Belongs in rumors.
What
(12 items)
 
  
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
i7-6950X X99 Deluxe ASUS GTX Titan Black 32GB @ 3200 
Hard DriveOSMonitorKeyboard
Samsung 960 Pro Windows 10 Pro x64 Dell UltraSharp U3014 Microsoft SideWinder X4 
PowerCaseMouseAudio
Corsair AX860 NZXT Switch 810 Mionix Castor Asus Xonar STX + 2x LME49860NA OPs + HD650s 
  hide details  
Reply
What
(12 items)
 
  
CPUMotherboardGraphicsRAM
i7-6950X X99 Deluxe ASUS GTX Titan Black 32GB @ 3200 
Hard DriveOSMonitorKeyboard
Samsung 960 Pro Windows 10 Pro x64 Dell UltraSharp U3014 Microsoft SideWinder X4 
PowerCaseMouseAudio
Corsair AX860 NZXT Switch 810 Mionix Castor Asus Xonar STX + 2x LME49860NA OPs + HD650s 
  hide details  
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Hardware News
Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Hardware News › [RWT] What’s Next for Moore’s Law? For Intel, III+V = 10nm QWFETs