Originally Posted by Wishmaker
As someone who dabbles with models, yeah I am an Economist, PhD, I will be blunt : if i were to write something like this, my academic colleagues would slap me silly. Having said that, lets get into a high level analysis of that paper as this is not an economics forum.
First and foremost, the literature review is so poor that you cringe when you browse the pages. I read it a few times and it looks rushed. A review of random information put there to build a highly topical case. What irks me is the lack of valid referencing to previous parametrization on the topic itself. If you want credibility, you need to show that you at least know the current literature on forecasting and the statistical inference other studies have reported.
The methodology itself. DCF, discounted cash flow, is indeed used for revenue forecasting and given their work, I would go back to the drawing board and think again of what my paper is trying to say. I have done a quick review of the literature now while I am writing this post and my suspicions are confirmed : you are using proper statistical models for estimation
and not a far fetched accounting method to 'estimate bankruptcy' of a company. The most common model is the Hazard one and you can be assured that any respected author will show you the maths behind his work and will test his model for breaks to give you the confidence that his work applies, however, there may be scenarios where variables may break the model.
The conclusion. For such a hardcore subject, this looks like it was written by a 5 year old. We do this we estimate that, AMD is dead, bang. Who in the right mind, even the most hardcore AMD haters would even bother with that small paragraph?
I will end my post with a wise quote from a friend of mine :' thank you for the work, I can go print it off and use it to wipe my a** when I go to the toilet'