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[valuewalk] Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Bankrupt By 2020? - Page 6

post #51 of 138
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocknut View Post

last I check Apple almost die too many many years ago..... look what happen now lol

The difference is that Apple released/sold a product that people really wanted, in large quantities.

AMD has yet to figure out how to do either; excluding consoles.
    
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post #52 of 138
Quote:
Originally Posted by PostalTwinkie View Post

The difference is that Apple released/sold a product that people really wanted, in large quantities.

AMD has yet to figure out how to do either; excluding consoles.

Console sales alone will keep them alive beyond 2020, but I do think if AMD does nothing worse things will come.
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post #53 of 138
I don't trust the opinion of an analyst that publishes reports with typos in titles.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/advanced-micro-devices-inc-amd-bankrupt-by-2020/ > "A. INDUSTRY DYNAMYCS: WHERE WINNER TAKES IT ALL."
post #54 of 138
Quote:
Originally Posted by massman View Post

I don't trust the opinion of an analyst that publishes reports with typos in titles.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/advanced-micro-devices-inc-amd-bankrupt-by-2020/ > "A. INDUSTRY DYNAMYCS: WHERE WINNER TAKES IT ALL."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wishmaker View Post

As someone who dabbles with models, yeah I am an Economist, PhD, I will be blunt : if i were to write something like this, my academic colleagues would slap me silly. Having said that, lets get into a high level analysis of that paper as this is not an economics forum.

First and foremost, the literature review is so poor that you cringe when you browse the pages. I read it a few times and it looks rushed. A review of random information put there to build a highly topical case. What irks me is the lack of valid referencing to previous parametrization on the topic itself. If you want credibility, you need to show that you at least know the current literature on forecasting and the statistical inference other studies have reported.

The methodology itself. DCF, discounted cash flow, is indeed used for revenue forecasting and given their work, I would go back to the drawing board and think again of what my paper is trying to say. I have done a quick review of the literature now while I am writing this post and my suspicions are confirmed : you are using proper statistical models for estimation and not a far fetched accounting method to 'estimate bankruptcy' of a company. The most common model is the Hazard one and you can be assured that any respected author will show you the maths behind his work and will test his model for breaks to give you the confidence that his work applies, however, there may be scenarios where variables may break the model.

The conclusion. For such a hardcore subject, this looks like it was written by a 5 year old. We do this we estimate that, AMD is dead, bang. Who in the right mind, even the most hardcore AMD haters would even bother with that small paragraph?



I will end my post with a wise quote from a friend of mine :' thank you for the work, I can go print it off and use it to wipe my a** when I go to the toilet' thumb.gif

So, only two guys that have more thought than just jumping on the bandwagon...lol classic!
Did anyone wonder why Kerrisdale would put out a report like this, let's see a short position on AMD, holder of a piece of paper that can convert to equity upon a default trigger or other acceleration rights, etc, ? Or may be Adrangi fancies himself to be Ackman, Einhorn or Simons one day...lol
But, it makes for a good b-grade MBA school study..... tongue.gif
Edited by provost - 5/21/15 at 7:21pm
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post #55 of 138
I think a lot of people also forget that if AMD goes out of business, then Intel will have no competitors in x86 and other areas. The government, OEM's, and other manufacturers won't want to see that happen. Not only that, but if AMD goes away then Intel will get more scrutiny from anti-trust regulators, which I'm sure they don't want either.
post #56 of 138
Quote:
Originally Posted by 0verpowered View Post

I think a lot of people also forget that if AMD goes out of business, then Intel will have no competitors in x86 and other areas. The government, OEM's, and other manufacturers won't want to see that happen. Not only that, but if AMD goes away then Intel will get more scrutiny from anti-trust regulators, which I'm sure they don't want either.

x86 is already an effective (not absolute/textbook definition) monopoly. The suppliers don't care that much as again they're amoral and it is irrelevant information to them. They'll care only when/if Intel's prices they fell become too much and make their positions untenable. So, if AMD goes away the only big obvious issue for Intel would be whether they'll be able to continue using x86-64 since that isn't theirs. If AMD goes under there wouldn't be an anti-trust issue because AMD went under due to market forces (though in the early 2000s you could have argued otherwise) and also because there's still VIA and finally the CPU market isn't just x86 (CISC) based. ARM in a way provides a defense for Intel in that regard.
     
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post #57 of 138
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rookie1337 View Post

x86 is already an effective (not absolute/textbook definition) monopoly. The suppliers don't care that much as again they're amoral and it is irrelevant information to them. They'll care only when/if Intel's prices they fell become too much and make their positions untenable. So, if AMD goes away the only big obvious issue for Intel would be whether they'll be able to continue using x86-64 since that isn't theirs. If AMD goes under there wouldn't be an anti-trust issue because AMD went under due to market forces (though in the early 2000s you could have argued otherwise) and also because there's still VIA and finally the CPU market isn't just x86 (CISC) based. ARM in a way provides a defense for Intel in that regard.

Market forces, like how Intel has the contra-revenue program where it is paying OEM's to use their cpu's? Even so, it would detract from a healthy and competitive market, innovation would stagnate. ARM is no way near competing with x86 on PC's which 90% of people use.
post #58 of 138
God, why didnt they release this "analysis" on the 10th? I could have got a lot of cheap stocks...darn.
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post #59 of 138
No chance of AMD going under. They would definitely get bought out--there are a lot of companies that would be willing to get their hands on all that IP as well as one of the only three non-embedded x86 licenses.
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post #60 of 138
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadRabbit View Post

God, why didnt they release this "analysis" on the 10th? I could have got a lot of cheap stocks...darn.

Well even without the analysis AMD's stock is the lowest it's been in 3 years, so still a good time to pick up plenty of cheap stocks lol.
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