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post #361 of 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by BangBangPlay View Post

We still can't accurately predict the weather for the upcoming week, but we apparently have an excellent grasp of our supposed effect/control over the temperature cycles of he planet? Why don't climate alarmists ever factor the sun and our physical orbit around it when making their programmed models? The temperatures have been in constant flux for hundreds of millions of years without us, and meanwhile a single volcano pops off and expels more CO2 than we could ever hope to in the entire industrial revolution.

It is actually pretty arrogant for us to believe that we could effect the temperatures on this planet if we tried to. And then lets say when we get the temperatures to go down the sun goes into a dormant cycle (predicted to occur over the next decade) and we experience a mini ice age. Climate science alarmists are getting pretty close to the television bible thumpers who use faith and guilt to get your money and support. Fitting seeing that their religion of climate science requires that it be taken with some degree of faith. Every year a prominent climate scientists resigns or spills the beans about the lack of evidence to support this still unproven theory.

My views don't mean that I don't believe we negatively effect our environment, I just believe there are more pressing issues than the theory of global warming. If we somehow manage to get all the plankton in the ocean to become endangered or extinct we'll have much more serious consequences to face than some rising sea levels, just saying....

If you understand science you understand that you can't measure anything with 100% accuracy/certainty thus there will always be room for error/uncertainty. You can however mitigate or attempt to cover this error/inaccuracy. That said the more complex a system becomes and the more variables there are the greater difficulty and reduced confidence your measures become UNLESS you have causal knowledge for the whole system. You can't predict with absolute certainty anything. But you can come close and over time (AKA a trend) if your model is based on the right variables you can come closer and more certain. See the Neil deGrasse Tyson video below in case my brain farted and I didn't make sense.

http://estuaries.noaa.gov/Teachers/pdf/Plankton_Food_Webs_VIMS.pdf

Just about everything you bring up has been covered or debunked as climate denialist's false narratives. For example, all the models have included relevant variables on the time scales (hence orbit, tilt, Sun cycles, may or may not be included) they cover or removed variables as necessary to test the effects of the ones that were included for significance. Why is it that people never have a problem with science or the scientific method until they get fed advertising or fear tactics telling them that there's a conspiracy?

For the volcanism debunking read here:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm

You're correct to be upset with the profiteers of fear like Gore, but you play into the hands of the other profiteers like the Koch bros and oil industry. Both only care about extracting dollars from you. The vast majority of scientist don't.

PS: The only climate scientist people (don't think they were scientist) I know of that have resigned or been disgraced have been the ones that actually tried to disprove climate change. The links are in one of my earlier posts in this thread if you'd like to check it out.

Ultimately, most of the scientist want to warn you about the consequences but they aren't going to result to scare tactics. Those come from the non-scientists like Gore or the oil, gas, and industry non-scientists because they have a profit motive. The scientist don't. They'll still have jobs with or without anthropogenic climate change. I covered that in more detail earlier as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rluker5 View Post

That is a good point. There may be good reasons for the adjustments that just aren't expressed in an easy to understand fashion, and if there were, my bad data in -> bad results out argument would go poof. I'm just very skeptical since the results all seem lopsided towards warming.

I hope you find this one interesting: I believe the globe has warmed since they started taking records, especially in the 80s and 90s. I also believe that man has contributed to this warming and CO2 has contributed some small extent as well. I also believe the climate is changing. But I don't like that these evident things I believe in are having their descriptive names changed into meaning some movement or call to action. I think this was done on purpose by some to make the call for action associated with the acceptance of reasonable facts.
I think a lot of disagreement comes from this where people wind up arguing 2 different things.
I wish there was an easier way to keep them separate.
The discussions would be more focused and coherent.
I believe in global warming but not in global warming. I guess you could call me a climate denier, whatever those words mean now.

All the results seemed lopsided for relativity once experiments to test it were designed.

I think this is an extremely relevant point made by Neil deGrasse Tyson on how to judge if something is causally linked
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5HM2F13Dfk
Start at 1:20 for the main part.

I definitely agree with you on the failure of clarity in terms that happens when laymen and profiteers try to discuss science. Global warming is much easier for people to say than climate change, or the more accurate term anthropogenic climate change (though I feel it should be called human accelerated climate change for us laymen).

The climate has been warming IIRC since the last glacial maximum (ice age) and that is a normal part of the cycle. What isn't normal and what appears to be happening is that it is accelerating at rates that can't be explained by the cycle or other natural factors. When human CO2 emissions are considered though they fit the trend best in explaining it and they are known as a casual contributing factor to the natural greenhouse effect so right now I'd say it seems quite solid. Is it certain? No, but again when faced with the costs of action to control it vs the cost of ignoring the situation I'm more risk averse in this case.
     
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post #362 of 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rookie1337 View Post

If you understand science you understand that you can't measure anything with 100% accuracy/certainty thus there will always be room for error/uncertainty. You can however mitigate or attempt to cover this error/inaccuracy. That said the more complex a system becomes and the more variables there are the greater difficulty and reduced confidence your measures become UNLESS you have causal knowledge for the whole system. You can't predict with absolute certainty anything. But you can come close and over time (AKA a trend) if your model is based on the right variables you can come closer and more certain. See the Neil deGrasse Tyson video below in case my brain farted and I didn't make sense.

http://estuaries.noaa.gov/Teachers/pdf/Plankton_Food_Webs_VIMS.pdf

Just about everything you bring up has been covered or debunked as climate denialist's false narratives. For example, all the models have included relevant variables on the time scales (hence orbit, tilt, Sun cycles, may or may not be included) they cover or removed variables as necessary to test the effects of the ones that were included for significance. Why is it that people never have a problem with science or the scientific method until they get fed advertising or fear tactics telling them that there's a conspiracy?

For the volcanism debunking read here:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm

You're correct to be upset with the profiteers of fear like Gore, but you play into the hands of the other profiteers like the Koch bros and oil industry. Both only care about extracting dollars from you. The vast majority of scientist don't.

PS: The only climate scientist people (don't think they were scientist) I know of that have resigned or been disgraced have been the ones that actually tried to disprove climate change. The links are in one of my earlier posts in this thread if you'd like to check it out.

Ultimately, most of the scientist want to warn you about the consequences but they aren't going to result to scare tactics. Those come from the non-scientists like Gore or the oil, gas, and industry non-scientists because they have a profit motive. The scientist don't. They'll still have jobs with or without anthropogenic climate change. I covered that in more detail earlier as well..

Dr Patrick Moore who is the co founder of greenpeace wrote an interesting article about being a climate change skeptic and I tend to agree with most of his points. He also points out that it has become somewhat of a political tool and being a denyer/skeptic can cause you to also become an outcast. Professor Lennart Bengtsson was pressured to step down from a skeptic climate think tank after being threatened with becoming an outcast. It just seems that there is only one answer and everything else is apparently wrong, where is the science in that? It is suspicious that the scientific community isn't more open to debate and seems to be stuck on this one way of viewing the cause of climate change. Not to mention that it is career suicide to even question this conclusion...

I understand scientific principle, but this conclusion (that humans are the direct cause of warming) is being drawn by reverse engineering the experiments with mundane and predictable models. There are so many variables to account for that all can have an effect on the changing patterns. To me it seems like money and effort are being used to convince and recruit more people to this "cause" instead of actually researching the true links to climate change and weather and producing results/proof. It has gotten too political, although I don't necessarily disagree with their goals. We should be paying close attention to our impact on our environment and big industry's effect (airlines are a big one too) undeniable effect on it. I just don't agree that we are the main/direct cause for warming and changes in the weather based on the evidence. Political motivation aside it just doesn't quite add up yet...
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post #363 of 580
The "consensus of scientists" argument can also be explained by one factor: Intimidation. If you go into the earth sciences field these days you are basically doing so knowing that if you make any waves and go against the AGW mantra you will be blacklisted and will not be able to find a job anywhere except maybe McDonalds. That is why they have taken to calling any of the skeptics "deniers" and "flat-earthers" which is really in complete opposition to what scientists are supposed to be doing (searching for the truth regardless of bias). The attempts to shut down any and all debate on the matter should be very troubling to any fair-minded individual in the field given the track record of scientific discovery (Copernicus was labeled a heretic to the status quo as well)...
post #364 of 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by Majin SSJ Eric View Post

The "consensus of scientists" argument can also be explained by one factor: Intimidation. If you go into the earth sciences field these days you are basically doing so knowing that if you make any waves and go against the AGW mantra you will be blacklisted and will not be able to find a job anywhere except maybe McDonalds. That is why they have taken to calling any of the skeptics "deniers" and "flat-earthers" which is really in complete opposition to what scientists are supposed to be doing (searching for the truth regardless of bias). The attempts to shut down any and all debate on the matter should be very troubling to any fair-minded individual in the field given the track record of scientific discovery (Copernicus was labeled a heretic to the status quo as well)...

Yes QFT thumb.gif
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post #365 of 580
I'll just come out and say it - I don't believe all of this about global warming.

Simply too many factors that can cause a change in climate for saying it's all about one or two things here on earth itself.
The earth itself has indeed been on a warming trend since about the beginning of the industrial age BUT that can happen without such going on, it certainly did to end the little ice age that took place during the renaissance era as was recorded with readings over the course of time during that era.
No cars or what-not needed to thaw things out.

Now.... It's also been said we're to have another cooling off within a few years due to decreased solar activity, that can and will affect the climate as a single denominator of such an effect since it's all based on the energy output of the sun we receive in the first place - No solar warming from the sun, no LIFE itself to even worry about how hot or cold it's going to be.
These cycles of increased and decreased solar output are natural and do affect things to this extent so there's no arguement about that being a direct cause.

I mean how did the world solve it's global warming problem that existed while dinosaurs were roaming around?

I mean it was supposedly much warmer back then than it is now but again we really weren't there to take a reading, take air samples of the atmosphere, do some documentary filmwork and the like to really know - All we can do is look at available evidence and speculate from there the most likely theory of what it probrably was.
Oh wait.... We didn't have a global warming problem until Gore said we did.....

DC what else is to be said - You have your take on it, I have mine ='ing good enough.
Edited by Kryton - 8/31/15 at 12:03am
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post #366 of 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryton View Post

I'll just come out and say it - I don't believe all of this about global warming.

Simply too many factors that can cause a change in climate for saying it's all about one or two things here on earth itself.
The earth itself has indeed been on a warming trend since about the beginning of the industrial age BUT that can happen without such going on, it certainly did to end the little ice age that took place during the renaissance era as was recorded with readings over the course of time during that era.
No cars or what-not needed to thaw things out.

Now.... It's also been said we're to have another cooling off within a few years due to decreased solar activity, that can and will affect the climate as a single denominator of such an effect since it's all based on the energy output of the sun we receive in the first place - No solar warming from the sun, no LIFE itself to even worry about how hot or cold it's going to be.
These cycles of increased and decreased solar output are natural and do affect things to this extent so there's no arguement about that being a direct cause.

I mean how did the world solve it's global warming problem that existed while dinosaurs were roaming around?

I mean it was supposedly much warmer back then than it is now but again we really weren't there to take a reading, take air samples of the atmosphere, do some documentary filmwork and the like to really know - All we can do is look at available evidence and speculate from there the most likely theory of what it probrably was.
Oh wait.... We didn't have a global warming problem until Gore said we did.....

DC what else is to be said - You have your take on it, I have mine ='ing good enough.

Trees could grow in much larger areas of the world, they pulled the CO2 out of the air. Mass extinctions always happened when such a climate change happened. So if you think that letting billions of people die is a good solution for climent change fine, but I think most people want a better solution.
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post #367 of 580
Earth will never die, it has been reformatted more times than a school libraries HDD.
Edited by Pip Boy - 8/31/15 at 12:54pm
post #368 of 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisaroth View Post

Trees could grow in much larger areas of the world, they pulled the CO2 out of the air. Mass extinctions always happened when such a climate change happened.

OK, I guess the trees did it right?
What about the supposed meteor strike(s) that took them out?

How do you know how much Co2 was in the air back then to pull out or even if there was even enough in the air to cause a problem?
Cavemen driving cars around?

Dunno where you pulled that from but it's clear you believe in it.
I see you went from it's "supposed" to "it's fact" within the same sentence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisaroth View Post

So if you think that letting billions of people die is a good solution for climent change fine, but I think most people want a better solution.

I'm not even going there with you.....

If that were the case (And it's not) I'd just come out and say it, don't be putting words in my mouth I did not say or go perverting the meaning of my words.
Nuff said on that.
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post #369 of 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisaroth View Post

Trees could grow in much larger areas of the world, they pulled the CO2 out of the air. Mass extinctions always happened when such a climate change happened. So if you think that letting billions of people die is a good solution for climent change fine, but I think most people want a better solution.
The trees were different then, they had bark to wood ratios of (8-20):1 and this bark wasn't biodegradable at the time, and the massive bark production led to the formation of most coal, the increase on O2 and decrease in CO2 at the time. The decrease in CO2 makes the most sense for mass extinction since the widespread hiatus in plant growth would surely destabilize the ecosystem severely. Luckily these trees aren't widespread any more and organisms have developed the ability to eat their bark -so death by forest decarbonization of the atmosphere is a thing of the past.

Speaking of dangerously low levels of CO2, remember this ?

I don't know when the next ice age is coming other than it is probably relatively soon, but look at how much that CO2 is dropping into the water. That's terrible for plant growth. Greenhouses run a lot higher to promote plant growth : http://www.amazon.com/Louvi-HydroGEN-Co2-Monitor/dp/B0049NUJPU/ref=pd_sim_86_1/185-4755613-5383031?ie=UTF8&refRID=1XW6DTZW5M021FYRDCFF&dpSrc=sims&dpST=_AC_UL320_SR250%2C320_
We're already losing a huge chunk of land mass to effectively neverending winter in the not too distant future. We don't need CO2 suffocation of plants to lead to widespread crop failures on top of this.
Luckily we've already increased the CO2 by like 100ppm with basically only prosperity to show for it, and hopefully the ocean won't swallow up too much of this when it's CO2 solubility limit increases by hundreds of ppm when the earth cools.
Maybe if we can increase the CO2 levels to what many greenhouses use we will have a global warming miracle and not plunge into the next ice age. While I doubt it, one can always hope.

These global warming projections should include an estimation of the onset of the next ice age based on the length of previous interglacials. I wonder if the warming projected would get to the point where anyone would care first?
post #370 of 580
Ummm I live in an area with "4 distinct seasons." Up here in the NW we have a real fall, a real Winter etc etc.

We were hot this past summer due to fires and El Ninio. We don't generally get that hot until the end of July through August and maybe a few days of September.

So I don't see how that affects my stance on Climate Change/ Global Warming. mellowsmiley.gif

~Ceadder smil3dbd4e4c2e742.gif
 
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