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[Various] NVIDIA Pascal GP100 Spotted in Transit (Being moved to testing phase) - Page 5

post #41 of 87
Anyone that thinks Nvidia will hurry to get GP100 to consumers is fooling themselves. They will however release it for professional market first. Just like they did Kepler. As long as there is no threat to their crown, they will only sell Big Pascal as Quadros. Common sense economics here. They will release a big die consumer part once they are settled with their professional card supply. OG Titan anyone?
post #42 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdstock76 View Post

Well where are the people saying that it would be Q4 2016 until Pascal? Huh ....

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.

.

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Silence. Thought so.

I called this after the 980ti release. And I called the 980ti release after their testing samples went public.

Slow your horses homie, nothing has been confirmed yet. Until the average consumer can legally purchase a pascal GPU, nobody is either right or wrong regarding the release date.
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post #43 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by ku4eto View Post

It is not about redesigning the architecture, the difference won't be this big.

High performance GDDR5 memory controllers need a lot of transistors. Removing that controller when HBM supply improves would certainly necessitate a redesign and reorganization of the chip...unless it's going to include both the GDDR5 controller and the HBM PHYs...which would waste all those transistors and all that die area that the GDDR5 controller takes up once GDDR5 was depreciated.

I do not expect big Pascal to ever have a GDDR5 controller, though I would expect to see some of the smaller parts use GDDR5.
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post #44 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdstock76 View Post

Well where are the people saying that it would be Q4 2016 until Pascal? Huh ....

.

.

.

.

.

Silence. Thought so.

I called this after the 980ti release. And I called the 980ti release after their testing samples went public.

It will be Q1 of 2017 before you get real Pascal...16nm is going to have horrible yields for likely 1 year+ and all of those 500mm^2+ dies will be going into 3000-6000$ Quadro's/Tesla's. Q2-Q3 of next year will likely see GTX 1080 or whatever they want to call it at 300mm^2 probably slightly faster than a Titan X for $600 at half the power draw or less.
Edited by MapRef41N93W - 9/23/15 at 7:04pm
 
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post #45 of 87
Indeed, the GK110 Tesla K20 and K20X parts launched 3 months prior to OG Titan's release. So even if GP100 based Tesla cards launch in Q2 2016, it would still take until at least Q3 2016 before we get the first consumer parts. Plus with the likely problematic initial yields of 16nm FF (remember this is TSMC we're talking about, you know the one that managed to screw up every single node beginning with 40nm), I think Q4 2016 is probably the most realistic, if not still on the optimistic side.

As far as performance goes, well if the jump from Fermi to Kepler is any indication, I expect GP104 to be around 20-30% faster than GM200, and upwards of 50% in certain cases. In other words, a Titan X/980 Ti overclocked to the hilt should give a very rough idea of the stock performance of a GP104.
Edited by magnek - 9/23/15 at 7:34pm
post #46 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by MapRef41N93W View Post

It will be Q1 of 2017 before you get real Pascal...16nm is going to have horrible yields for likely 1 year+ and all of those 500mm^2+ dies will be going into 3000-6000$ Quadro's/Tesla's. Q2-Q3 of next year will likely see GTX 1080 or whatever they want to call it at 300mm^2 probably slightly faster than a Titan X for $600 at half the power draw or less.

Agreed with most of this, except GP204 will likely be closer to 400mm^2
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post #47 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

Agreed with most of this, except GP204 will likely be closer to 400mm^2

GK204 was only 298mm^2 and with 16nm being such a huge jump (finFET + a full die shrink) from 28nm I can see 300mm^2 being enough to sell them like hot cakes ala GTX 980 with the idea of them being much lower power draw than the competition (if there even is any by then...) and slightly faster than the previous top card. Also they'll have HBM2 which could add a nice boost to performance making them even faster than what I've said here. NVIDIA can then drop the grand daddy Titan in February/March for $1000 with all those leftover Quadro dies and begin the cycle anew.
 
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post #48 of 87
True, but with GM204 being 398mm^2, they can pack another 25% worth of SM's... We shall wait and see wink.gif
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post #49 of 87
Do you think this will have Dp 1.3 or will they milk dp 1.2 since all the $1000-$2000 monitors coming out all have old dp 1.2 still?
post #50 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010rig View Post

True, but with GM204 being 398mm^2, they can pack another 25% worth of SM's... We shall wait and see wink.gif

They will start out conservative. They have to leave room for a future product and the faster these perform, the less room for the future. I could see these chips being 300mm to 350mm2. If they are stuck another 4 years at this node again, they will be their biggest competition I have a feeling. Unless there is a remarkable improvement in AMD finances, they are unlikely to be able to afford a double architecture launch like Nvidia and I think we will see rebrands for AMD 16nm chips as well. Tape out are simply too expensive and nvidia too will try to milk the next node.

The simplification of the memory controller should allow nvidia to allocate another 20% more shaders to other components like shaders, alu and ROPs. AMD was able to shave what could have been a double sized or 700mm chip based on the double the component transition from fiji to tonga( 360mm chip size) down to 600mm2. This means AMD was able to allocate or shrink their die 16.7% from the HBM memory controller simplification. Since Nvidia's memory controller is larger than AMD's generally so if these transition over to nvidia chip, I could see about a 20% savings in die area. With the double packing of the transistor density from going to 16nm, a 300mm2 chip could fit 20% more components and a 350mm2 die could fit about 40% more components. Thus for a gm204 part, 400mm2 die would hardly be necessary. Such a die i am guessing could fit about 60% more components. At this point, it could very well turn into be gp210.

A 400mm2 die with HBM2 at 16nm is atleast the same cost as a 600mm 28nm die and is likely more expensive to make. I don't think Nvidia is going to release 600mm2 any time soon(next 2 years). AMD is struggling with a very mature 28nm at making such chips. Although Nvidia has more experience designing monolithic chips, it doesn't make sense to make such monster dies when the cost for 16nm finfet chips are so prohibitive due to the wafer cost doubling.
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