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[Tech4Gamers] nVidia shows off Pascal at GTC 2015 - Page 10

post #91 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mahigan View Post

@keikei

I'm hoping for better multi-gpu support with DX12/Vulcan titles. I'd like to get a few cards working in tandem. Would be nice to see 4k gaming with all of the settings on Ultra in newer titles biggrin.gif

I share the same sentiments as mcg75. Gamers are looking for that single card for the ultimate 4k performance. If Nvidia can deliver, consider me on team green next year.
Edited by keikei - 10/4/15 at 6:26pm
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post #92 of 229
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by keikei View Post

I share the same sentiments as mcg75. Gamers are looking for that single card for the ultimate 4k performance. If Nvidia can deliver, consider me on team green next year.

Yup. Crossfire/SLi has proven to be something that USED to be good, but more and more, it seems to be an after thought these days, especially with AMD and their slow driver updates and patches for Crossfire. SLI doesn't scale nearly as well as Crossfire, but at least it works pretty much without any issues.

Will DirectX 12 help to fix that? Who knows. One thing is for sure, unless you plan on never playing any game that is out today or for the next couple months, gamers will have to deal with DirectX 11 and below for a long time (and so will developers ... since DX12 is only for Windows 10).
post #93 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by keikei View Post

I share the same sentiments as mcg75. Gamers are looking for that single card for the ultimate 4k performance. If Nvidia can delivery, consider me on team green next year.

I think both companies will deliver that... which is why I'm looking beyond simple 4K gaming and into the other attributes of these cards.
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post #94 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noufel View Post

2016 will be awesome for the GPU market, we'll see pascall and arctic islands trading blows ( cause of the low cpu overhead brought by dx12) and that on the new 16 nm nod and with the HBM2 memory with 16-32gigs capacity ( without the latency i hope of the HBM1 ) thumb.gif
all that will bring ( i hope ) prices down and we will see 500$ price tag for real high end GPUs again drool.gif



Chart only goes out to 20nm FF, but I can't imagine 16nm FF being cheaper.

With cost per transistor actually going UP after 28nm, and factoring in the cost of HBM2, there is no way in hell we'll ever see $500 for "real high end GPUs" again. I'd be actually surprised if a GP100 Titan still goes for $1000, unless nVidia wanted to start cutting into its margins.
post #95 of 229
I cannot wait for all the HBM 2.0 cards to drop. My 280x is being a trooper, but I've wanted to upgrade to a 290x or 390x for a while to consistently get over 60fps on everything I play at 1080p. But I just know the performance jump will be so much greater if I wait 10 months, the payoff will be awesome. 2016/17 are going to be so cool in the graphics department with DX 12/Vulcan and these new 16nm cards.
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post #96 of 229
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRacker View Post

I cannot wait for all the HBM 2.0 cards to drop. My 280x is being a trooper, but I've wanted to upgrade to a 290x or 390x for a while to consistently get over 60fps on everything I play at 1080p. But I just know the performance jump will be so much greater if I wait 10 months, the payoff will be awesome. 2016/17 are going to be so cool in the graphics department with DX 12/Vulcan and these new 16nm cards.

Same.

Right now I have a GTX 980 on my main gaming rig and I really want to push the 144Hz G-Sync on them. I could move my 980Ti out of my rendering machine, but ... nah.

So I'll give Pascal until the end of Q2 to come in and be 40% faster than a 980Ti, otherwise I'll pick up a second 980 and ride things out until Volta.

I usually like to skip a generation (or two) by going SLI, but I'm not sure it will be viable for too much longer.
post #97 of 229
I thought I would have to wait a minimum of 14-16 months for two of these bad boys.

As long as they don't screw around by not including DP 1.3 or charge Titan-Z prices, this will be a dream scenario. It seems almost too good to be true.
post #98 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mahigan View Post

@Cyro999

We could be looking at between 1.3 to 1.6 improvement. That being said, we could be looking at more than 2.0 improvement from Fiji to Greenland. Imagine, for a moment, Fiji with twice the front end components...

That alone would cause a two fold performance improvement from current Fiji to this imagined architecture. Why? Because neither Fiji, or Hawaii, are compute limited. Especially not the case under DX12 with the upcoming engines. They're front end limited and memory bandwidth limited.

Now factor in that Greenland has twice the transistors as Fiji... An overhaul of the front end, with some compute units added, as well as HBM2 would lead to a near 2x, performance improvement under DX12 titles.

Greenland will be more than competitive with Pascal. Assuming AMD doesn't jump the shark again.

I don't think AMD next chip is going to be as big as Nvidia's.

For the last 5 generations aside from Fiji, AMD/ATI has never made a die as big as Nvidias. Fiji was the first time and it was for a couple reasons, first fiji was AMD attempt to stuff an a design made for 20nm onto a 28nm one and secondly, to take advantage of the bandwidth of HBM1, AMD needed to increase it's compute power substantially over hawaii. Add in the maturity of 28nm chip at this point in time and it opened the door for such a big chip for AMD.

Something 16-18 billion transistors from AMD is something AMD cannot afford at this point because there is a very good chance they won't make their money back and the volume of the market isn't there.

I think whatever AMD comes up with is going to be 25%-40% smaller than Nvidia's big chip which was typical of the past.

What allows Nvidia to make such big chips in the first place is they command 80% of the professional markets(and charge 33% more than a AMD equivalent) and on average can charge substantially more for the same performance when compared to AMD for their gaming products. This equals hundreds of millions more a quarter which can support the big monolithic chip design.

Considering the staggering increase in cost to design a chip at 16nm(triple), make it, the risk associated with the yields of such big chips and considering AMD resources, it just doesn't make sense for them. And the CEO's current vision agree's with this. Dumping hundreds of millions of dollars in cost/opportunity costs in a such a high risk/high failure venture just doesn't make sense. Not when they have about 300 million dollars of usable liquid asset left(they need to keep a minimum amount of 500 million). Turning their GPU division around means 10s million and at the most 100 million(which nvidia generated without their Intel payout) in net profit. Turning their CPU division means billions and it's why the company has spent most of their resources over the last few years on their CPU department. The GPU industry is a shrinking market and will implode if the cost of development exceeds the amount of potential revenue in the future. Nvidia at 10nm is going to run into this wall and it's going to mean trouble for them.

Nvidia generates about 200+ million typically from the professional market alone and can afford to take these risks. This is all because they have the money in the bank and the professional market/super computing contracts to pay for these big chips, plus the extra margins generated from the Nvidia brand luxury tax.

AMD on the other hand would struggle to generate a profit from such big chips(as Nvidia often does at times even) and if the chip comes out a dud like the gtx 480 or 2900xt, well there goes hundreds of millions of dollars and lost revenue on allocating limited 16nm chips on something not profitable. It would be far less risky for them to design a chip around 350 mm2.

These chips can sell at price points with drastically more volume and the yields are substantially better. They can also be decent pro cards too. This makes the midrange market the safest spot for AMD to play it's 16nm chips.

Heck, I doubt Nvidia is making a 17billion transistor design but they can afford to make such a chip and have it fail(which is far less likely considering their professional market presence). AMD on the other hand has to pick it's fights properly at 16nm because they have limited resources, the wafers limited availability and their brand is coming out a dog after 28nm's. The professional market simply isn't there for AMD at the moment because of AMD worse support on the drivers and products for the professional market.

Doesn't mean they can't out perform nvidia, but it is far less likely when they typically work with a chip size deficit.
Edited by tajoh111 - 10/4/15 at 8:14pm
post #99 of 229
seeing how all the other shrinks didn't bring ground breaking performance, i don't think pascal will bring such a big boost. most likely no different than what we have already seen. look at fermi to keplar. yeah keplar was faster, but it wasn't anything amazingly faster at.

all i can see pascal being amazing at is performance at 4k and that will be mostly because of hbm2. what pascal brings is a super boost in memory speed which really isn't needed if you're on 1080p. by the time it is, volta will be out.

a 980 ti will probably fall under the next $300 card category. two of them in sli will probably fall under the $500.
post #100 of 229
Hmm so why did I think this will be with HBM1 ? Who is the culprit for confusing me??? biggrin.gif
 
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