Originally Posted by Shandl4r
Let's do a pie in the sky Fermi estimation here.
Let's take the Titan X, full GM200.
601mm^2 and 8 billion transistors on the 28nm process.
Now we know the '28nm' and '16nm' are not actually that size, but let's assume the processes are the same relative shrink.
So the full 28nm GPU is capable of 13.31 million transistors per mm^2. Square root of 13.31 = 3648 transistors in a linear mm.
A relative die shrink of 16/28 would increase that to 3648 * 28 / 16 = 6385 transistors per mm
6385^2 = 40.76 million transistors per mm^2 on 16nm ff+.
That estimation matches the rumor mill of 17B transistors for GP100. 17000 / 40.76 = 417 mm^2. A perfectly reasonable size die for a 'big pascal' chip on a new immature process.
So 550mm^2 would get us a whopping 22.42 billion transistors on 16ff+. Now we have to assume per transistor performance losses compared to the Titan X due to FP32 being put back into the architecture. So comparing to the GK110 instead that is 316% of a Titan Black.
So a safe 3x Titan Black performance. Possibly 3.2x. A very comfortable double the performance of a Titan X, and likely more like 215% that of a Titan X.