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[TT] NVIDIA should launch its next-gen Pascal GPUs with HBM2 in 2H 2016 - Page 56

post #551 of 724
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyElf View Post

I agree with everything else you've said, but that will only happen if they start losing fans in large numbers to make a material difference. Look around. There is a very loyal fan-base right now that has thoroughly drunk the proverbial Kool Aid, so to speak. So long as they have that base, they have no incentive to do that, unless AMD comes up with something good. You have a large base insisting right now that Nvidia's business practices are perfectly ok and that it is acceptable right now to have such short support cycles. Until they wake up in large numbers, that isn't changing.

In regards, to the compelling product, I'm hoping that will be the case with Polaris. See my response below to SSJ Eric: AMD too desperately needs to pull a very compelling product in both Zen and Polaris alike. If those fail, they are in really, really big trouble.

I'd also argue that AMD needs to pull a more compelling user experience together. Faster driver updates, a better UI for things like Crimson. Sure they have a solution with better CF scaling than SLI, and better performance over time, but they need to focus on more aggressively getting that up. It isn't easy making drivers that make the most of GCN right now, but it would arguably pay for itself.

Bottom line is that neither company is perfect. AMD though is certainly in regards to the consumer, the "lesser evil" in terms of business ethics though.
It depends.

If what Mahigan is saying is true, even a 350mm^2 variant of the Polaris should be a decent improvement of >20% perhaps over the Fury X and perhaps the 980Ti (the 2 are pretty close, especially at 4k). More importantly, with HBM2; there may be more than 4GB of VRAM with HBM2, which is an important limitation to overcome. That's not a negligible improvement, even if the bigger dies add another 30% or so on top of that.

Another important consideration is that on the Green side, Nvidia's chips, if the Ashes of Singularity benchmarks are representative of DX12 performance. IN that regard, a good DX12 GPU might be a good investment. The analogy might be the HD 7970. It was the first high end 28nm GPU. Sure it was later eclipsed by the 290X and the Fury X, but if you bought one in 2012, it wasn't a bad deal at all considering the life you got out of it. If you had held your wallet out against the GTX 580 and the 6970, then bought the 7970 on release, you got a pretty good value all things considered. It still is going strong by virtue of GCN today.

But you are absolutely right that a 600mm^2 chip is improbable. TSMC has struggled mightily with yields. A couple of months ago, TSMC couldn''t even get 100mm^2 chips with acceptable yields. Asking for a 600mm^2 chip isn't happening. If Global Foundries is building the AMD chip, then one other weak point is their lack of experience with giant dies. We won't see the big dies until 2017, perhaps as late as 2018. Let's just say that these giant dies are a marvel of engineering and it takes a lot of effort behind the scenes to get them out. Plus a lot could go wrong that could lead to other delays. It's hard to say for sure. Even the best engineers won't know.
The GTX 480 Fermi launched in March of 2010:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2977/nvidia-s-geforce-gtx-480-and-gtx-470-6-months-late-was-it-worth-the-wait-

Historically, AMD has been the first to launch on big dies (Nvidia actually conceded that after a previous disaster). I believe that the Fermi disaster was why Nvidia quietly adopted AMD's small die strategy.

GTX 680 > Titan
750 Ti > GTX 980 > Titan X


Cypress was more power efficient partly due to the fact that AMD had through the smaller dies understood the limitations of the 55 nm process that it was working with, while Nvidia jumped right in with a giant die. The story is a lot more complex, but it a part of the role.

To Nivida's credit, they learned for Kepler and were able to build on those previous lessons, exceeding AMD's expectations (which is why we say the 7970 GHz and the aggressively clocked 290X / Fury X).

I believe we have a fundamental disagreement over how uninformed pc gamers are generally, and Nvidia’s customers, specifically. At the end of the day, we all have loyalty to our own wallets not to any gpu company. I don’t believe any retail customer buys any pc hardware that inherently requires software support to function properly, and pays a higher price knowing that the such hardware will be EOL’d within months (depending on when the customer buys it in Nvidia’s 12 month refresh cycle).

Graphic cards are not cell phones, since a graphic card’s only utility, for the consumer segment, is gaming entertainment, presumably because graphic cards deliver a better entertainment experience than consoles for a price, but it’s not based on a contractual relationship with the vendor. Thus, Any attempt to build pc hardware sales model using Apple’s mousetrap is doomed to fail. I can’t see the economics of a limited support cycle based gpu costing a few hundred dollars be appealing to anyone. Launch benchmarks alone won’t sell a limited support cycle graphic card.

Nvidia’s fans are fans until they are not, and such is the non-sticky nature of pc gamers. Besides, gamers can always get their gaming thrills out of consoles (even if Nvidia would like to pretend that AMD doesn’t exist), especially given the economics for the consumer of NVidia’s ill conceptualized business mouse trap… the value proposition simply isn’t there.

I don’t believe that we will ever agree on the fact that Nvidia doesn’t have fans, but customers who buy from it, as long as Nvidia holds up its end of the bargain which includes not limiting the support cycle to push for a refresh, just because that’s what Nvidia wants. The target market customers have choices for gaming entertainment, and they will have more choices with Nvidia’s competitor’s new offerings. Nvidia is overplaying its hand with this “better experience” pitch… so let’s see how it unfolds… lol
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post #552 of 724
Quote:
Originally Posted by dubldwn View Post

GTX 480 launched first. With some issues. I get the profit motive on the mid-range flagship then big chip but maybe I should blame AMD for that. GTX 580 was first. 8800 GTX ( I remember that day) but I don't think either was a new node.

The 480 was first way back in 2010 but remember what a disaster that launch was for Nividia. I think it was the lessons learned there that led to their shift to mid-range GPU flagships just as much, if not more so than any supposed AMD weakness, as is commonly claimed around here.
post #553 of 724
Quote:
Originally Posted by rluker5 View Post

4 years? I'm sure that's what their intentions are now, maybe not so much next year. My 780tis are a little over 2 years old. Could you imagine keeping Keplers through 2014, through 2015 and Maxwell, through 2016 and pascal, through 2017 and big pascal/little volta, waiting to 2018 and big volta? Sure, my Volvo has 300k miles, but new cars don't give me twice the driving performance on my way to work.
If they let people drive  that Volvo would be on craigslist.

Sounds like making a stop for just one or two rolleyes.gif

Considering my graphics card is about to start pushing 4 years in a few months and still does nearly everything I want, yeah. I can imagine that. I only paid $300 for it whereas they're running 980Tis and the like.
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post #555 of 724
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Majin SSJ Eric View Post

The 480 was first way back in 2010 but remember what a disaster that launch was for Nividia. I think it was the lessons learned there that led to their shift to mid-range GPU flagships just as much, if not more so than any supposed AMD weakness, as is commonly claimed around here.


The only people that thought the gtx480 was a disaster, was the people that didn't own them.
I bought gtx 480 for $499USD on launch day. In fact still have them one of them has a serial number 000069.

The day Installed my gtx 480 I broke world records with it. Look in my sig. They are not hot never went above 81c (furmark). They are loud when the temps go above 76c.
I kept them for 5 years they did a great job. Of course one 980ti has more performance than both of the good ole 480's. They beat the competitors offering by a long shot. 5870

Times move on.
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post #556 of 724
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrFPS View Post

The only people that thought the gtx480 was a disaster, was the people that didn't own them.
I bought gtx 480 for $499USD on launch day. In fact still have them one of them has a serial number 000069.

The day Installed my gtx 480 I broke world records with it. Look in my sig. They are not hot never went above 81c (furmark). They are loud when the temps go above 76c.
I kept them for 5 years they did a great job. Of course one 980ti has more performance than both of the good ole 480's. They beat the competitors offering by a long shot. 5870

Times move on.

That's not what people refer to when they call the 480 a disaster. They refer to the fact that its complexity made it very difficult to manufacture with good yields early on and therefore forced it to launch 6 months later, with disabled shaders, and high power consumption/heat production.

Furthermore, to compete with the 5870 at the time, Nvidia had to price their cutting-edge, big-bad chip at a measly $500 as the overall performance difference (for games, that is) versus the 5870 was more like this:


perfrel_2560.gif



From a corporate standpoint, big-die Fermi absolutely had a problematic launch. The end-result was still the fastest GPU on the market, but not by much and certainly not by enough for Nvidia to be in an ideal selling position (for both their margins and mindshare).
Edited by Serandur - 2/27/16 at 1:47pm
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post #557 of 724
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrFPS View Post

The only people that thought the gtx480 was a disaster, was the people that didn't own them.
I bought gtx 480 for $499USD on launch day. In fact still have them one of them has a serial number 000069.

The day Installed my gtx 480 I broke world records with it. Look in my sig. They are not hot never went above 81c (furmark). They are loud when the temps go above 76c.
I kept them for 5 years they did a great job. Of course one 980ti has more performance than both of the good ole 480's. They beat the competitors offering by a long shot. 5870

Times move on.

What Serandur said above. Also two can play this cherrypicking benchmark game heh:
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)






Oh and what about the oh so highly valued perf/watt these days?



Ooops.

Then there's also the fact GF100 was a monolithic 529mm² die with 3.1 billion transistors, as compared to Cypress XT, a 334mm² die with 2.154 billion transistors. That's 1.58x the die size and 1.44x the transistor count for not much more performance. Really, at least try to be a little objective in your statements.
post #558 of 724
REALITY CHECK:

At the time i write this nVidia still does not have a working prototype of any Pascal series chips either in GDDR5/GDDR5X or HBM1. HBM2 is not going to be a release feature component at the start of the line in any form. Additionally at the time that this thread was started, nVidia hadn't even finished lithography at 16nm and someplace between then and now a Magnitude 6.2 earthquake shook the hell out of the TSMC plant.

EVERYTHING in the thread to this point is purest fantasy speculation.

Fifty Six pages of total hogwash and flea dip.

The subject has wandered off and hidden in a cave in Formosa by this point.

We have no actual transistor count for Pascal because they've hit snags in their design and in 16nm lithography that are requiring a re-design of some subcircuits.
You cannot equate changes in lithography nanometer scale with increased density because there are parts of these chips that are STILL up in the 32nm and 45nm range that will never shrink and much of even the GloFo/Samsung 14nm tech is built onto 20nm and 22nm components. Just because a 14nm lithography is used doesn't mean all the components are 14nm - it just isn't true.

Will nV produce a card this year? Yes. Will they release an HBM card first? No. Will AMD release an HBM card first? Possibly! (probably if FuryX2 counts) Will there be HBM2 cards this year? Unlikely.
Will there be non-HBM versions of the HBM cards? No. Will there be HBM versions of the non-HBM cards? No.

Is HBM interchangeable with HBM2 or GDDR5 as far as the internal structure of GPUs is concerned? NO.

So stop talking about the 480 like it has even a fart in a hangar's chance of being relevant to Pascal.

Someone kill this stupid thread already, please!
post #559 of 724
Aint your post just that, a fantasy speculation, hogwash and flea dip ?
post #560 of 724
FIFTY SIX PAGES?!?!

my god man! 50 posts/page FTW! (i'm only on page 12.)
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