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[OC3D/TF] Pascal GP100 Titan coming as early as April and the GP104 GTX 1080/1070 to launch in June - Page 27  

post #261 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serandur View Post

AMD and Nvidia would be more glad to push low power consumption (ie. less hardware, cheaper to manufacture, bigger profit margin spun as though it were a win). Maxwell's market dominance suggests it would work and AMD's current PR for Polaris suggests power consumption is their current primary objective. As for VR, given current prices for the headsets, I'd think Nvidia and AMD would be more inclined to push for VR on their $1000 Titan-like SKUs instead and could get away with a GTX1080 slightly faster than a 980 Ti still being enough for VR at first.

As to why it might be right to expect more conservative performance increases:



Process Node Shrink: For the first time, the new process node isn't decreasing individual transistor cost. This means a GTX 1080 with a ~300mm^2 die size and the same transistor count and density as GM200 (980 Ti/Titan X) will be just as expensive to manufacture as GM200 (a 601mm^2 die; the largest GPU ever). In fact, it might even be a little more so at first given the maturity of 28nm vs the immaturity of 16/14nm nodes.



Given yield difficulties and initially sky high costs, it's not even very reasonable to expect a ~400mm^2 die from GP104. It's more likely that GP104 will be ~300mm^2 to ~350mm^2 maximum.

Meanwhile, looking back at the Fermi to Kepler transition, GF110 was actually significantly smaller than GM200 at a relatively small 520mm^2 (as opposed to GM200's massive 601 mm^2). The area scaling improvement going from 40nm to 28nm was also about 2x, just like TSMC's 16nm is about 2x as dense as 28nm:

http://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/technology/16nm.htm 16nm is 2x 28nm

http://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/technology/28nm.htm 28nm is 2x 40nm

I'll discuss architecture below as well.


New Architecture: There are limits as to just how efficient you can make an arrangement of transistors for a given task. The thing is, moving from Fermi to Kepler (especially consumer Kepler) was moving over from a more HPC-oriented compute design with significant resources dedicated to hardware scheduling to a more efficient, more gaming-oriented design (that still had its HPC-oriented parts in GK110). That saves quite a few transistors and power costs which previously didn't benefit games and allows them to be spent on gaming-oriented improvements.

Furthermore, moving from Kepler to Maxwell all-but eliminated FP64 compute capability and reallocated those costs into raw shader frequency and efficiency (therefore also FP32 compute improvements, which may actually be useful for games these days), an extremely efficient/beefy cache design, a massive increase in ROP throughput, and various other changes targeted purely at gaming and the consumer market. Unlike Fermi and likely the upcoming Pascal, Maxwell is not an HPC chip; it gained a lot of its improvements by Nvidia deliberately designing the architecture from the ground-up for consumer workloads (ex. games and some non-professional compute applications) and pretty much nothing else.

This means that Maxwell -> Pascal (a design that will, no doubt, go back to catering to HPC as well) is not analogous to Fermi -> Kepler and especially isn't analogous to Kepler -> Fermi. That's not to say Pascal won't be a big step up from Maxwell in gaming efficiency as well; the demands of newer games could shift to favoring Pascal's allocation of resources, but considering the process node shift is about the same as 40nm to 28nm in area scaling while GM200 is quite a bit bigger than GF110, transistor costs aren't decreasing, and Maxwell is a lean-and-mean gaming-oriented architecture in ways Fermi and even Kepler weren't... being a little skeptical of GP104's dominance might be warranted. It could happen, it's just not as likely to happen in my humble opinion.


I think it's even possible Nvidia deliberately kept the 980 Ti's GM200 somewhat cut-down and don't allow non-reference Titan X's specifically so the GTX 1080 or whatever they call it isn't quite as underwhelming as it might be against a fully unlocked, overclocked GM200.

good informative post +1 REP thumb.gif

Though at the end of the day I am still a customer. There are only a few things that count for me when making the decision to purchase a GPU and the most important ones are relative performance compared to previous/competitor products and price point.

If the GPU is not good enough in my eyes then I'll just buy something else like a Nintendo NX. It is probably best to wait until both Nvidia and AMD have products out this year before buying something. I feel hope their products don't coincidentally complement each other so well this time around, but rather compete. biggrin.gif
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post #262 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by PostalTwinkie View Post

Fury used HBMv1, Pascal will have HBMv2. There are significant differences between them.

I realize there are differences.

Let me pose it like this, Do you feel that GP104 is more likley to be bandwidth constrained on GDDR5x, or more core limited by ROPs and shaders?

My point being: putting 1 TB/s worth of bandwidth on a chip that can only utilize 480 GB/s is pointless and in this case likely to be expensive, for no appreciable gain.
 
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post #263 of 293

Is fast Vram going to be good for large texture packs or is that not related?

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post #264 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by alphabet View Post

I am assuming people will expect less than that, wasn't the 980ti under 30% performance over a 780ti? Sorry I don't follow numbers closely so I don't know the performance leap from kepler to maxwell outside of the power consumption change.
Everyone has an opinion, it's just sad when they can't put their opinion aside and deal with the facts.

Then again, we can sit here and pretend you are a psychologist with the mental capacity to judge someones emotions over an internet post rolleyes.gif

780 Ti to 980 Ti is completely different. Both are 28nm cards.


I don't know what people think, but for me it is an absolute no-brainer that cards in 2016 have to be finally good again. I finally want to look at GPU reviews again and be "wow'd". Everything on 28nm has been like :

"Oh yeah GTX 780 is exactly where Nvidia wants it to be. Slightly better than the GTX 680, but slightly worse than the Vanilla Titan. Exactly where the price would suggest"

"Oh boy nice a new GTX 980. Ah nevermind it is a 400mm² mid range card disguised as high end card that performs within 10% of the old 780 Ti"

"Let's take a look at the Fury X review I am super excited for. Wait what it is slower than the 980 Ti but priced the same. It has less VRAM and no option to go without the hybrid cooler? God damn it AMD"

"Uh Titan X review. Yeah just like I thought if we actually want the full chip we gotta pay 1000$ for a card with a fancy name some pre-school kid would write on their skateboard cruising about the city skipping the much needed dentist appointment in favor of hanging out with the K1LL3R-KR3W in front of his local supermarket"



I finally want it to be like :

"God yes GTX 1080 is 50% better than the 980 Ti at a reasonable price point and finally throws out the heavily overused Titan-esque cooler design. I can finally approach a higher resolution than 1080p and maintain a reasonable framerate"
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post #265 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serandur View Post

For the first time, the new process node isn't decreasing individual transistor cost.

I am pretty sure per transistor costs are down, maybe not as much lower as previous node shrinks but still significantly lower.

At least for Intel per transistor costs are quite a bit lower at 14nm compared to 22nm (which is lower than 32nm, which is lower than 45nm, etc.) but I haven't seen any data on transistor costs for TSMC, Samsung, or GlobalFoundries.

For a FAB, if transistor costs are not lower they would not implement production, the entire point of a node shrink is cheaper transistors, especially with these new nodes which seem to not have better performance per transistor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkwizzie View Post

Is fast Vram going to be good for large texture packs or is that not related?

It is related but only to a point, VRAM needs to be fast enough but once the textures get too large the shaders cannot keep up with applying them and more bandwidth is not going to help.

As always: balanced architectures are good but what balanced means is dependent on the workload. It is quite complicated and hard to predict going forward, as game engines evolve some resources might start to bottleneck when before they were overkill. This means some extra bandwidth is probably a good idea but spending a lot of money on totally overkill is not helpful. Given the current generation's memory bandwidth I would expect 256bit GDDR5X for the GP104 to be sufficient but not overkill. Assuming ~2x the transistors. smile.gif
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post #266 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by zealord View Post

I finally want it to be like :

"God yes GTX 1080 is 50% better than the 980 Ti at a reasonable price point and finally throws out the heavily overused Titan-esque cooler design. I can finally approach a higher resolution than 1080p and maintain a reasonable framerate"
To be fair, I think we all want it to be like that, I just don't expect it. Unless AMD brings out something fantastic, Nvidia is going to play the same old game.
 
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post #267 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biorganic View Post

To be fair, I think we all want it to be like that, I just don't expect it. Unless AMD brings out something fantastic, Nvidia is going to play the same old game.

If the Nvidia card comes before AMD then Nvidia is definitely going to let us pay big for minimal increase.

It will get interesting once both have released their flagship card for sure, but I feel like neither of them are willing to go below 650$ for a good card
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post #268 of 293
If we get 980 Ti performance for 350-400 this generation I will be happy.

Which would mean 1070 at 375$ and within 5% performance of Ti. I am not sure how likely that is, but we can all hope. redface.gif
 
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post #269 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by zealord View Post


If the Nvidia card comes before AMD then Nvidia is definitely going to let us pay big for minimal increase.

It will get interesting once both have released their flagship card for sure, but I feel like neither of them are willing to go below 650$ for a good card

 

Not that I disagree with what you're looking for, because I think that's what we'd all like to see, but it's been established that the market supports $650 USD and even $1000 USD cards. Only one thing will bring prices down, and that is a change in the market. Sales = approbation, and I'm as guilty as anybody else of giving in to the temptation of new hardware.

     
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post #270 of 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biorganic View Post

If we get 980 Ti performance for 350-400 this generation I will be happy.

Which would mean 1070 at 375$ and within 5% performance of Ti. I am not sure how likely that is, but we can all hope. redface.gif


In my eyes that would be terrible. Atrocious.

If you said within the next 4 months then I'd agree, but "this generation". Damn that is low expectation. Makes me actually a bit sad frown.gif

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperZan View Post

Not that I disagree with what you're looking for, because I think that's what we'd all like to see, but it's been established that the market supports $650 USD and even $1000 USD cards. Only one thing will bring prices down, and that is a change in the market. Sales = approbation, and I'm as guilty as anybody else of giving in to the temptation of new hardware.

Well me2. I bought a GTX 680 for 500€.
A 294mm² for 500€. God damn.

But thank god I got that 290X for like 150€ 1 1/2 years ago biggrin.gif
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Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Rumors and Unconfirmed Articles › [OC3D/TF] Pascal GP100 Titan coming as early as April and the GP104 GTX 1080/1070 to launch in June