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[Senecaglobe] (NASDAQ:AMD) Gets Warning of Bankruptcy - Page 13

post #121 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sin0822 View Post

these click bait articles just show the current state of desperation of certain sites, thanks for stating the obvious in a scary way. I love how media these days is all about scare tactics to get traffic. Skylake bug will kill you, oh wait you have to use prime95, you have to disable FMA for it to occur, you also have to test some large FFT size, oh and it might happen, but you should be super scared.

To be fair, the probability of AMD going bankrupt and undergoing Chapter 11 reorganization is much, much higher than a "normal" user randomly triggering that Skylake errata.
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post #122 of 173
It's really surprising that people in this thread have no confidence whatsoever in AMD's graphics division's ability to have Polaris compete with Pascal, especially seeing as AMD is currently winning almost every single price to performance bracket out there.

(insert BS about finances and bankruptcy that makes no sense but I'm pretending to understand it because it's the internet and on the internet I know all the things)

But I'm out. I don't want to get sucked into a mash between AMD fanboys and self-proclaimed "expert market analysts" that TOTALLY know what they are talking about.

*drops mic*
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post #123 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr squishy View Post

It's really surprising that people in this thread have no confidence whatsoever in AMD's graphics division's ability to have Polaris compete with Pascal, especially seeing as AMD is currently winning almost every single price to performance bracket out there.

(insert BS about finances and bankruptcy that makes no sense but I'm pretending to understand it because it's the internet and on the internet I know all the things)

But I'm out. I don't want to get sucked into a mash between AMD fanboys and self-proclaimed "expert market analysts" that TOTALLY know what they are talking about.

*drops mic*

Good thing you came in here and set us straight. Unfortunately numbers don't lie.
 
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post #124 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr squishy View Post

It's really surprising that people in this thread have no confidence whatsoever in AMD's graphics division's ability to have Polaris compete with Pascal, especially seeing as AMD is currently winning almost every single price to performance bracket out there.

(insert BS about finances and bankruptcy that makes no sense but I'm pretending to understand it because it's the internet and on the internet I know all the things)

But I'm out. I don't want to get sucked into a mash between AMD fanboys and self-proclaimed "expert market analysts" that TOTALLY know what they are talking about.

*drops mic*

The success or failure of AMD's graphics division is largely immaterial to the company's eventual outcome as a whole. Even if they were to reach sales parity with NVIDIA with their upcoming lineup, it wouldn't do anything to counteract the financial repercussions were Zen to not significantly increase both their share and ASP in the x86 market (especially in high-end servers, where their current market share is below one percent).
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post #125 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr squishy View Post

It's really surprising that people in this thread have no confidence whatsoever in AMD's graphics division's ability to have Polaris compete with Pascal, especially seeing as AMD is currently winning almost every single price to performance bracket out there.

(insert BS about finances and bankruptcy that makes no sense but I'm pretending to understand it because it's the internet and on the internet I know all the things)

But I'm out. I don't want to get sucked into a mash between AMD fanboys and self-proclaimed "expert market analysts" that TOTALLY know what they are talking about.

*drops mic*

Sadly price/performance doesn't seem to matter. People still buy a lot more Nvidia GPUs compared to AMD GPUs.

I guess the brandname does more to sales than performance per dollar does. Look at apple.

*shots fired*

EDIT: in all seriousness, nVidia has a very refined product, is the performance king and is more power efficient.
Edited by MoGTy - 1/30/16 at 3:31am
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post #126 of 173

AMD has had it rough. However I am not concerned by an Intel monopoly as someone such as Samsung,MS or maybe even google etc would buy them out and the competition will still remain.

post #127 of 173
If invest firms are not Turing huge profits from someone they pretty much will label them useless and make sure other people keep clear of them its how it works..
If they invest one dollar they want want one thousand out it ..They could care less less about anything else its about the profit and nothing more
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post #128 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr squishy View Post

It's really surprising that people in this thread have no confidence whatsoever in AMD's graphics division's ability to have Polaris compete with Pascal, especially seeing as AMD is currently winning almost every single price to performance bracket out there.

(insert BS about finances and bankruptcy that makes no sense but I'm pretending to understand it because it's the internet and on the internet I know all the things)

But I'm out. I don't want to get sucked into a mash between AMD fanboys and self-proclaimed "expert market analysts" that TOTALLY know what they are talking about.

*drops mic*

Hiya fella. Unless AMD is getting those full power full cost Polaris GPUs in a smart phone the numbers that they sell are really not going to be enough to deal with that ATI acquisition debt they are still unable to put a dent it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkpriest667 View Post

Good thing you came in here and set us straight. Unfortunately numbers don't lie.

No worries I am here to use my big time Accountant powers to fill in his blank space. I am not a finance type but the fields are related and I do not think reorganization would be a problem if it was handled correctly. If I am not mistaken the x86 license and x64 cross license arrangement do not mention or concern themselves with a controlled bankruptcy, only transfer from one party to another. If AMD could negotiate a reorganization that would create a separate entity that would eliminate their book debt allowing them to actually keep a few of the dollars coming in to reinvest in the main product they make (R/D) yet collect a royalty on the in the form of a set percentage of gross margin, controlled by the bondholders that are currently bleeding AMD, then they would be in a position to actually perform so they could have a chance at expanding their market share. On its face one would think that the bondholders wouldn't want to take a 2,000,000,000.00 dollar hit, but it could make sense. The 2 billion could be written down based on actual losses mitigated only by the value of the secondary entity that they are getting a controlling interest in that only has value as a pass through entity. The value of that entity at present is would be nil. AMD has crap sales. The bet would be that the bondholders have the potential to take that huge write down now absolving them of a fortune in taxes in the near term, AMD would have a chance at righting the ship and providing them long term value, and in the end the bondholders would have a perpetual cash cow or an entity that they could sell back to AMD when they grow to the extent that they could afford it. Win/Maybe Win is the best case scenario because at present the bleed until collapse situation in Lose/Lose Later.

If an AMD guy is reading this get Lisa on the phone, my team can be in Sunnyvale Monday morning. thumb.gif
Edited by dave12 - 1/30/16 at 5:31am
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post #129 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave12 View Post

Hiya fella. Unless AMD is getting those full power full cost Polaris GPUs in a smart phone the numbers that they sell are really not going to be enough to deal with that ATI acquisition debt they are still unable to put a dent it.
No worries I am here to use my big time Accountant powers to fill in his blank space. I am not a finance type but the fields are related and I do not think reorganization would be a problem if it was handled correctly. If I am not mistaken the x86 license and x64 cross license arrangement do not mention or concern themselves with a controlled bankruptcy, only transfer from one party to another. If AMD could negotiate a reorganization that would create a separate entity that would eliminate their book debt allowing them to actually keep a few of the dollars coming in to reinvest in the main product they make (R/D) yet collect a royalty on the in the form of a set percentage of gross margin, controlled by the bondholders that are currently bleeding AMD, then they would be in a position to actually perform so they could have a chance at expanding their market share. On its face one would think that the bondholders wouldn't want to take a 2,000,000,000.00 dollar hit, but it could make sense. The 2 billion could be written down based on actual losses mitigated only by the value of the secondary entity that they are getting a controlling interest in that only has value as a pass through entity. The value of that entity at present is would be nil. AMD has crap sales. The bet would be that the bondholders have the potential to take that huge write down now absolving them of a fortune in taxes in the near term, AMD would have a chance at righting the ship and providing them long term value, and in the end the bondholders would have a perpetual cash cow or an entity that they could sell back to AMD when they grow to the extent that they could afford it. Win/Maybe Win is the best case scenario because at present the bleed until collapse situation in Lose/Lose Later.

If an AMD guy is reading this get Lisa on the phone, my team can be in Sunnyvale Monday morning. thumb.gif


That's a fantastic analysis + rep. I am wondering though, where are they going to get the capital to invest in new R and D once they've had a controlled bankruptcy? They'll have no cash on hand? Are they going to rely on investors to loan them the money through stock sales or is there something I am not seeing?
 
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post #130 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave12 View Post

Hiya fella. Unless AMD is getting those full power full cost Polaris GPUs in a smart phone the numbers that they sell are really not going to be enough to deal with that ATI acquisition debt they are still unable to put a dent it.
No worries I am here to use my big time Accountant powers to fill in his blank space. I am not a finance type but the fields are related and I do not think reorganization would be a problem if it was handled correctly. If I am not mistaken the x86 license and x64 cross license arrangement do not mention or concern themselves with a controlled bankruptcy, only transfer from one party to another. If AMD could negotiate a reorganization that would create a separate entity that would eliminate their book debt allowing them to actually keep a few of the dollars coming in to reinvest in the main product they make (R/D) yet collect a royalty on the in the form of a set percentage of gross margin, controlled by the bondholders that are currently bleeding AMD, then they would be in a position to actually perform so they could have a chance at expanding their market share. On its face one would think that the bondholders wouldn't want to take a 2,000,000,000.00 dollar hit, but it could make sense. The 2 billion could be written down based on actual losses mitigated only by the value of the secondary entity that they are getting a controlling interest in that only has value as a pass through entity. The value of that entity at present is would be nil. AMD has crap sales. The bet would be that the bondholders have the potential to take that huge write down now absolving them of a fortune in taxes in the near term, AMD would have a chance at righting the ship and providing them long term value, and in the end the bondholders one would have a perpetual cash cow or an entity that they could sell back to AMD when they grow to the extent that they could afford it. Win/Maybe Win is the best case scenario because at present the bleed until collapse situation in Lose/Lose Later.

If an AMD guy is reading this get Lisa on the phone, my team can be in Sunnyvale Monday morning. thumb.gif

I agree the graphic division and polaris succeeding isn't enough to make AMD a profitable enough company to pay off it's required debt in time. The overall amount of revenue in the graphic industry isn't enough and the amount of R and D spending in comparison the potential revenue is so small compared to processors. It's why Nvidia is desperately trying to expand into other markets and convert that R and D on graphics into something else. With the graphic market shrinking, even with Nvidia's current success, I would be worried for them in 10 years. Nvidia has been sitting on way too big of a cash pile considering their company size and debt or lack of, and it's likely preparing for the fallout. 16nm/14nm is going to tell us alot about the future of GPU's because cost of production is vastly going up and we need to see if Revenue for the industry will grow with the likely price increase of videocards. Or will consumers respond negatively to increased pricing in graphic cards.

You completely underestimate how much money it would take to competently fund R and D. It's not a few dollars, It's hundred of millions of dollars or over a billion annually. AMD doesn't have the cash flow to fund this along with the rest of its overhead. Additionally, AMD workforce has been cut down as much as it can go.

For AMD to increase their market share, AMD needs to spend more money on R and D not just maintain it's current spending. Additionally, AMD needs to vastly increase their budget for marketing, particularly to make up for the brand vs Intel and Nvidia. This is billions more and how is AMD going to get this money. After going bankrupt, creditors and companies are not going to extend credit to AMD. It will be expecting immediate cash payment in exchange for procurement of inventory, wafer production. Where is this cash going to come from? The bondholders? This screams escalation of commitment and throwing more money into the money pit.

AMD is more valuable to it's lenders as a hollowed out husk and as a company that behaves as an IP bank. This means lending out it's IP for royalty payments and it's most valuable IP is particularly valuable with AMD gone.

If AMD owns x86 64(which creditors would take ownership), it basically enables the cross licencing agreement it currently has with Intel which keeps AMD from paying royalty payments on processors. Strip that away and now AMD is paying royalty payments to Intel, which considering the margins on their processors, ensures a fortune on losses and doom to the company.

With AMD not making processor anymore, a restructured company or a secondary entity, would have no obligations to a cross licencing agreement. What this enables the company to do is charge Intel a royalty for the x64 licence and considering Intel's sales, this is potentially big money. Proof of this, is looking how much Intel paid Nvidia for the licencing agreement for their GPU patents. Considering how integral x86 64 is, this is likely to be bigger than Nvidia's payout.

A pseudo AMD with a hollowed out CPU production is potentially a valuable and profitable company and something creditors would not be hesitant to take on because their is little risk and the rewards could potentially recoup the losses from AMD going bankrupt.
Edited by tajoh111 - 1/30/16 at 1:03pm
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