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[Senecaglobe] (NASDAQ:AMD) Gets Warning of Bankruptcy - Page 14

post #131 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by ENTERPRISE View Post

AMD has had it rough. However I am not concerned by an Intel monopoly as someone such as Samsung,MS or maybe even google etc would buy them out and the competition will still remain.

If another company buys them, there is no guarantee they will continue to produce x86 processors and if they do, it may only be for their own products.
post #132 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Robot View Post

There are still great people left. Raja Koduri is the head of RTG and he designed ATI Radeon R300 (9700).

I agree that they do have talented people, but giving a designer who turned into a head of department as an example, is the wrong example. He is not longer directly designing things. He is in the top management area now., and not directly designing stuff. And we have see how AMD management do things lately.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoGTy View Post

Sadly price/performance doesn't seem to matter. People still buy a lot more Nvidia GPUs compared to AMD GPUs.

Prices/performance matters very little to the end consumer in many aspects.
Computers is one of them.
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post #133 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave12 View Post

Hiya fella. Unless AMD is getting those full power full cost Polaris GPUs in a smart phone the numbers that they sell are really not going to be enough to deal with that ATI acquisition debt they are still unable to put a dent it.
No worries I am here to use my big time Accountant powers to fill in his blank space. I am not a finance type but the fields are related and I do not think reorganization would be a problem if it was handled correctly. If I am not mistaken the x86 license and x64 cross license arrangement do not mention or concern themselves with a controlled bankruptcy, only transfer from one party to another. If AMD could negotiate a reorganization that would create a separate entity that would eliminate their book debt allowing them to actually keep a few of the dollars coming in to reinvest in the main product they make (R/D) yet collect a royalty on the in the form of a set percentage of gross margin, controlled by the bondholders that are currently bleeding AMD, then they would be in a position to actually perform so they could have a chance at expanding their market share. On its face one would think that the bondholders wouldn't want to take a 2,000,000,000.00 dollar hit, but it could make sense. The 2 billion could be written down based on actual losses mitigated only by the value of the secondary entity that they are getting a controlling interest in that only has value as a pass through entity. The value of that entity at present is would be nil. AMD has crap sales. The bet would be that the bondholders have the potential to take that huge write down now absolving them of a fortune in taxes in the near term, AMD would have a chance at righting the ship and providing them long term value, and in the end the bondholders would have a perpetual cash cow or an entity that they could sell back to AMD when they grow to the extent that they could afford it. Win/Maybe Win is the best case scenario because at present the bleed until collapse situation in Lose/Lose Later.

If an AMD guy is reading this get Lisa on the phone, my team can be in Sunnyvale Monday morning. thumb.gif

Your suggestion has pretty much zero chance to ever happening.
First because debt owners most likely own stock options and part of the board, and they will never allow AMD to just write off a 2B$ debt, and will most likely be happy to cut AMD out and divide their assets and patents which will be worth those 2B$ easily over time.
Secondly, because the chances of AMD being bought is much higher than this ever happening. Unless they plan to cut AMD into 3 pieces (graphics, processors, everything else), and just sell off one of the parts. And since they run out of everything else to sell, they will only have 2 options.
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post #134 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr squishy View Post

It's really surprising that people in this thread have no confidence whatsoever in AMD's graphics division's ability to have Polaris compete with Pascal, especially seeing as AMD is currently winning almost every single price to performance bracket out there.

The High-End GPU market is pretty small niche market. It might seem big on these forums, but the reality of it is it will not bring in nearly enough to cover the billions of dollars they owe.
Also winning a useless category such as Price to Performance is meaningless. Nvidia has been dominating with over 80% of the GPU market share. Clearly people care less about Price to Performance.

The CPU market is always where the real money has been and they have tanked that ever since Bulldozer was vomited into the market.
Edited by BeerPowered - 1/30/16 at 9:41pm
post #135 of 173
The only market that Nvidia is dominating is the descrete GPU market. Their Tegra SoC have failed in smart phones, tablets, and set-top boxes (most of these products are using Samsung and Qualcomm chipsets). Even though Nvidia is trying to make a big splash in the automotive and at CES, Audi gave them the boot and went with Qualcomm - Qualcomm have shipped millions of SoC/GPU chips for the Auto industry. These are some of the reasons why Nvidia tried to sue Qualcomm and Samsung to prevent their SoC and mobile GPU solutions to be used in products in the USA.


AMD have these markets to gain revenue from. They don't have to "WIN" they just have to get back some market share and increase sales in these areas:

GPU

APU

SoC

CPU

CPU Servers

Laptop CPUs

Consoles

Embeded chip systems - i.e. digital signage, slot machines, Smart TV...etc...


EACH one of the above has the potential to bring hundreds of millions in revenue for AMD in the next year or two.
Edited by speedyeggtart - 1/31/16 at 2:05am
post #136 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by speedyeggtart View Post

The only market that Nvidia is dominating is the descrete GPU market. Their Tegra SoC have failed in smart phones, tablets, and set-top boxes (most of these products are using Samsung and Qualcomm chipsets). Even though Nvidia is trying to make a big splash in the automotive and at CES, Audi gave them the boot and went with Qualcomm - Qualcomm have shipped millions of SoC/GPU chips for the Auto industry. These are some of the reasons why Nvidia tried to sue Qualcomm and Samsung to prevent their SoC and mobile GPU solutions to be used in products in the USA.


AMD have these markets to gain revenue from. They don't have to "WIN" they just have to get back some market share and increase sales in these areas:

GPU

APU

SoC

CPU

CPU Servers

Laptop CPUs

Consoles

Embeded chip systems - i.e. digital signage, slot machines, Smart TV...etc...


EACH one of the above has the potential to bring hundreds of millions in revenue for AMD in the next year or two.

In some of those markets, they do not exist in, and they will not get any "hundreds of millions".
In large server CPUs they pretty much have no chance of growth. Intel pretty much dominate and will continue to dominate.
In small mini-servers, both ARM and Intel are already in there. AMD has to enter, and even then, they are using ARM, so their market is not going to explode there with hundreds of millions of income in just two years.
SoC, they have nothing. They do have plans to bring something with again, ARM. This is also a rough market to push into. We have seen how nvidia are succeeding there, even when they have very good chips.
GPU - only if they really bring something good. Desktop CPUs - again.

In potential, nvidia can dominate all the makers, AMD can dominate all the markets, Intel can dominate all the markets, etc etc. Regardless of that, AMD pulling net income of about 400M$ a year until 2019, after losing 660M$ just in 2015, seems impossible. Maybe they will be able to make it. It is not going to be as easy as you make it sound.
They have to put really great products this year, and so far except hype, there has been nothing (especially since we know what is going to happen every time AMD really try to hype things up).
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post #137 of 173
If AMD has competitive products, now that means power to performance ratio, they will gain market share. No one in the server or high-end workstation has had a reason to touch an AMD CPU for a long time.

The other problem, even if they have a competitive CPU, is that Intel has a lot of money to "influence" people to keep on buying Intel chips.
Edited by umeng2002 - 1/31/16 at 3:38am
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post #138 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkpriest667 View Post

That's a fantastic analysis + rep. I am wondering though, where are they going to get the capital to invest in new R and D once they've had a controlled bankruptcy? They'll have no cash on hand? Are they going to rely on investors to loan them the money through stock sales or is there something I am not seeing?

The plan I outlined is not to get AMD a giant pile of cash to work with. It is a plan to get AMD into a position to be able to compete. I don't have the exact numbers (I will get them if someone wants to start making crazy arguments not based in reality) but AMD brings in about one billion in revenue per quarter. Of that billion about 250 million is spent servicing the 2.5 billion they owe from the ATI acquisition.
AMD spends about 200 million per quarter on R/D and another 550m on basic operating costs. If AMD could free up that additional 250 million of debt service then they could put that towards their R/D or some other productive activity. Assuming a royalty is assessed around 12 percent of gross sales then AMD would be paying 400-450 million per year in debt service in the form of royalties instead of 1.0-1.1 billion per year. Freeing up 500-700 million per year. None of this info is super specific and some of it may be wrong but these are my recollections and even if the numbers aren't right it is the general picture. No bond company would accept a write down like that from any company and AMD is in a segment that is seeing contraction in units and gross revenue. That is why a controlled debt reorganization would be needed. The problem with that is it would make AMD have to forgo things like short term credit to finance operations and cover A/R. Even with those problems it would still be a system that pays the bondholders and allows AMD the access to its actual earned cash flow to operate like a business.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

I agree the graphic division and polaris succeeding isn't enough to make AMD a profitable enough company to pay off it's required debt in time. The overall amount of revenue in the graphic industry isn't enough and the amount of R and D spending in comparison the potential revenue is so small compared to processors. It's why Nvidia is desperately trying to expand into other markets and convert that R and D on graphics into something else. With the graphic market shrinking, even with Nvidia's current success, I would be worried for them in 10 years. Nvidia has been sitting on way too big of a cash pile considering their company size and debt or lack of, and it's likely preparing for the fallout. 16nm/14nm is going to tell us alot about the future of GPU's because cost of production is vastly going up and we need to see if Revenue for the industry will grow with the likely price increase of videocards. Or will consumers respond negatively to increased pricing in graphic cards.

You completely underestimate how much money it would take to competently fund R and D. It's not a few dollars, It's hundred of millions of dollars or over a billion annually. AMD doesn't have the cash flow to fund this along with the rest of its overhead. Additionally, AMD workforce has been cut down as much as it can go.

For AMD to increase their market share, AMD needs to spend more money on R and D not just maintain it's current spending. Additionally, AMD needs to vastly increase their budget for marketing, particularly to make up for the brand vs Intel and Nvidia. This is billions more and how is AMD going to get this money. After going bankrupt, creditors and companies are not going to extend credit to AMD. It will be expecting immediate cash payment in exchange for procurement of inventory, wafer production. Where is this cash going to come from? The bondholders? This screams escalation of commitment and throwing more money into the money pit.

AMD is more valuable to it's lenders as a hollowed out husk and as a company that behaves as an IP bank. This means lending out it's IP for royalty payments and it's most valuable IP is particularly valuable with AMD gone.

If AMD owns x86 64(which creditors would take ownership), it basically enables the cross licencing agreement it currently has with Intel which keeps AMD from paying royalty payments on processors. Strip that away and now AMD is paying royalty payments to Intel, which considering the margins on their processors, ensures a fortune on losses and doom to the company.

With AMD not making processor anymore, a restructured company or a secondary entity, would have no obligations to a cross licencing agreement. What this enables the company to do is charge Intel a royalty for the x64 licence and considering Intel's sales, this is potentially big money. Proof of this, is looking how much Intel paid Nvidia for the licencing agreement for their GPU patents. Considering how integral x86 64 is, this is likely to be bigger than Nvidia's payout.

A pseudo AMD with a hollowed out CPU production is potentially a valuable and profitable company and something creditors would not be hesitant to take on because their is little risk and the rewards could potentially recoup the losses from AMD going bankrupt.

What I am proposing would put AMD into a position that would allow them to either sink or swim based on whatever they can do with the extra 500-700 million per year that is freed up by rearranging their debt service from an interest model that has no respect for productivity into a model that allows them access to the cash they generate off what they are actually doing.

edit - A bankruptcy filing doesn't mean liquidation. It would simply be a debt restructuring that would need to be fair to secured creditors and necessary to AMDs survival.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Defoler View Post

Your suggestion has pretty much zero chance to ever happening.
First because debt owners most likely own stock options and part of the board, and they will never allow AMD to just write off a 2B$ debt, and will most likely be happy to cut AMD out and divide their assets and patents which will be worth those 2B$ easily over time.
Secondly, because the chances of AMD being bought is much higher than this ever happening. Unless they plan to cut AMD into 3 pieces (graphics, processors, everything else), and just sell off one of the parts. And since they run out of everything else to sell, they will only have 2 options.

I thought I was sufficiently disdaining of the debt holding interests in my first post but the real problem is two fold, even excluding bondholder influence on AMDs BoD. Bankruptcy could force the write down in exchange for the royalty company as compensation for lost capital. Bond holders wouldn't like it but it could be done. The intransigence would come from AMD losing the ability to tap the short term markets for normal operations which makes this solution a bitter solution for both parties and mutually disagreeable solutions are usually the ones with the best grounding in practicality.

I think that kind clarifies what I intended and covers the contravening bits of feedback. If I missed anything I apologize.
Edited by dave12 - 1/31/16 at 5:59am
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post #139 of 173
This topic got me interested in taking a preview of AMD's 3Q balance sheet. I never realized that it was this bad. By no means do I ever wish bad on folks, but it's running at a negative shareholders' equity (i.e., negative book value). While book value is not the be all end all of the value of a company (true market value is a determinate), but negative book value is not a good starting place.

Most companies that do file for bankruptcy - the first thing they cite is amount of liabilities against assets. Generally (and very generally) when liabilities exceeds assets that is often used as cause of pre-packaged bankruptcy - difficulty or unable in meeting its liabilities.

In very general terms, you want your return on assets (ROA - the return from the left side of the balance sheet) to exceed your weighted average cost of capital (WACC - the right side of the balance sheet). Otherwise you are destroying equity value, which seems to be happening.
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post #140 of 173
You are correct in saying that a pre packaged solution can likely work (maybe no other options). You see it in the mid-cap oil and gas drillers today. They are going into a pre planned bankruptcy with debtor in possession creditors ready to support them through the reogranization. They are also swapping current debt for equity, lower par debt with equity kickers, or other debt with higher coupon with security (if they were unsecured before).

Either way, the original debt holders won't receive 100 cents on the dollar of their original investment.
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