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[Senecaglobe] (NASDAQ:AMD) Gets Warning of Bankruptcy - Page 15

post #141 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave12 View Post

The plan I outlined is not to get AMD a giant pile of cash to work with. It is a plan to get AMD into a position to be able to compete. I don't have the exact numbers (I will get them if someone wants to start making crazy arguments not based in reality) but AMD brings in about one billion in revenue per quarter. Of that billion about 250 million is spent servicing the 2.5 billion they owe from the ATI acquisition.
AMD spends about 200 million per quarter on R/D and another 550m on basic operating costs. If AMD could free up that additional 250 million of debt service then they could put that towards their R/D or some other productive activity. Assuming a royalty is assessed around 12 percent of gross sales then AMD would be paying 400-450 million per year in debt service in the form of royalties instead of 1.0-1.1 billion per year. Freeing up 500-700 million per year. None of this info is super specific and some of it may be wrong but these are my recollections and even if the numbers aren't right it is the general picture. No bond company would accept a write down like that from any company and AMD is in a segment that is seeing contraction in units and gross revenue. That is why a controlled debt reorganization would be needed. The problem with that is it would make AMD have to forgo things like short term credit to finance operations and cover A/R. Even with those problems it would still be a system that pays the bondholders and allows AMD the access to its actual earned cash flow to operate like a business.
What I am proposing would put AMD into a position that would allow them to either sink or swim based on whatever they can do with the extra 500-700 million per year that is freed up by rearranging their debt service from an interest model that has no respect for productivity into a model that allows them access to the cash they generate off what they are actually doing.

edit - A bankruptcy filing doesn't mean liquidation. It would simply be a debt restructuring that would need to be fair to secured creditors and necessary to AMDs survival.
I thought I was sufficiently disdaining of the debt holding interests in my first post but the real problem is two fold, even excluding bondholder influence on AMDs BoD. Bankruptcy could force the write down in exchange for the royalty company as compensation for lost capital. Bond holders wouldn't like it but it could be done. The intransigence would come from AMD losing the ability to tap the short term markets for normal operations which makes this solution a bitter solution for both parties and mutually disagreeable solutions are usually the ones with the best grounding in practicality.

I think that kind clarifies what I intended and covers the contravening bits of feedback. If I missed anything I apologize.

Problem with the whole plan, are the assumptions.

Currently AMD doesn't pay per year in debt. They are paying zero. The are currently free from paying debt until 2019, when the 2B$ debt is due. They finished paying for ATI debt purchase at 2009 (the payed partially from cash, and partially from selling on of their fabs). Currently they are due to pay in 2019 only, for the money they got to keep their fabs alive, and eventually sold to keep the company afloat.

Also they are currently running at a net loss of 660M this year (about 481M less in operations loss) . And that is after the extra money they got from selling off their assembly facility, and without paying any debt payments.
They are left with 785M$ in cash at the end of the year. So it means they still need to make, not lose, 440M$ a year, at least. Going from 481M$ loss to 440M$ gain, even if they cut some of the R&D, this is going to be freakin hard, unless zen (which comes at the end of the year only) and polaris, are really breaking the market. So far, there is no real promise of that.

AMD lost about 2B$ in revenue just in 2015. CPU income is coming only at the end of 2016, and polaris, if it does mediocre, especially with pascal coming right after it, will not be an amazing seller, so I don't think it will make that back. Unless pascal really can't compete with polaris.

So with these numbers, the chances are that the bondholders will accept the break of the company into two, one for royalties, and one for operations, are again I think, zero. It will not free anything. Even worse, it will force them to pay every year, which they currently don't need to. It will even increase the risk of the debt holders, and so again, chances are pretty close to zero. AMD do not have the cash to restructure the debt and pay every year at all, and they can't make any collateral for the second company. Hell, this will even more scare shareholders and debt holders if AMD will try such a move.

Even if AMD bankrupt, the debt holders will benefit from cutting AMD and selling off their patents and knowledge to someone else, so your assumption of a write off of flawed. They will not just lose 2B$ out of nothing. Most likely by selling AMD, they will be able to gain more.

Anyway, I'm sure AMD accountants will know better how to handle it. Or not. AMD actions can sometimes be too shabby.
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post #142 of 173
Maybe they should ask the government to bail them out wink.gif
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post #143 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Robot View Post

Maybe they should ask the government to bail them out wink.gif

I would rather see our Tax Dollars bail out Tech companies, and advance ourselves as a whole, than the banks that just took the money and ran.
    
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post #144 of 173
Bailouts of any large corporation are simply wealth transfers from the middle class to the parasitic rich class. Let amd sink, let their patents get sold off to cover debts and let the rich debt holders eat the remaining losses. See if any new player enters the market with amds patents and if not then breakup intel and nvidia. That's what should happen when one company uses shady business practices to dominate a market and establishes a monopoly. Stop giving money to the rich.
post #145 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave12 View Post

The plan I outlined is not to get AMD a giant pile of cash to work with. It is a plan to get AMD into a position to be able to compete. I don't have the exact numbers (I will get them if someone wants to start making crazy arguments not based in reality) but AMD brings in about one billion in revenue per quarter. Of that billion about 250 million is spent servicing the 2.5 billion they owe from the ATI acquisition.
AMD spends about 200 million per quarter on R/D and another 550m on basic operating costs. If AMD could free up that additional 250 million of debt service then they could put that towards their R/D or some other productive activity. Assuming a royalty is assessed around 12 percent of gross sales then AMD would be paying 400-450 million per year in debt service in the form of royalties instead of 1.0-1.1 billion per year. Freeing up 500-700 million per year. None of this info is super specific and some of it may be wrong but these are my recollections and even if the numbers aren't right it is the general picture. No bond company would accept a write down like that from any company and AMD is in a segment that is seeing contraction in units and gross revenue. That is why a controlled debt reorganization would be needed. The problem with that is it would make AMD have to forgo things like short term credit to finance operations and cover A/R. Even with those problems it would still be a system that pays the bondholders and allows AMD the access to its actual earned cash flow to operate like a business.
What I am proposing would put AMD into a position that would allow them to either sink or swim based on whatever they can do with the extra 500-700 million per year that is freed up by rearranging their debt service from an interest model that has no respect for productivity into a model that allows them access to the cash they generate off what they are actually doing.

edit - A bankruptcy filing doesn't mean liquidation. It would simply be a debt restructuring that would need to be fair to secured creditors and necessary to AMDs survival.
I thought I was sufficiently disdaining of the debt holding interests in my first post but the real problem is two fold, even excluding bondholder influence on AMDs BoD. Bankruptcy could force the write down in exchange for the royalty company as compensation for lost capital. Bond holders wouldn't like it but it could be done. The intransigence would come from AMD losing the ability to tap the short term markets for normal operations which makes this solution a bitter solution for both parties and mutually disagreeable solutions are usually the ones with the best grounding in practicality.

I think that kind clarifies what I intended and covers the contravening bits of feedback. If I missed anything I apologize.

That's simply not true. AMD usually spends 40 million a quarter on their interest expense or 160 million dollars annually.




What is killing AMD is their gross margins.

http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2130467


Cost of sales only takes into account cost of productions and cost of materials. Nothing to do with interest expense. On a billion on sales, this expense is somewhere between 700 million to 800 million. This leaves AMD with 200-300 million to pay for R and D, administration expenses, marketing and etc. Considering R and D is 220-250 million dollar. It basically ensures a loss.

Also 1 billion interest expense on 2.262 billion loan? That's cash advance on a credit card levels of interest. That is simply not the case. I think your mistaking AMD buying stuff on credit(which all companies do in some shape or form) as interest expense.

160 million annually or 7% interest annually seems seems a lot more realistic figure than 1 billion dollars or 44% interest annually on a loan.
Edited by tajoh111 - 1/31/16 at 12:20pm
post #146 of 173
Thread Starter 
All I want is a chip as fun as the Barton 2500+ but with a motherboard that doesnt look like it came out in 2002.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PostalTwinkie View Post

I would rather see our Tax Dollars bail out Tech companies, and advance ourselves as a whole, than the banks that just took the money and ran.

So give money to one board of directors and upper management instead of another. Cause you know the people who've been running AMD are saints fighting for the advancement of humankind. Maybe if more companies could get x86 licenses and such we wouldn't be stuck in a rut of lack of real competition.
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post #147 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by PostalTwinkie View Post

I would rather see our Tax Dollars bail out Tech companies, and advance ourselves as a whole, than the banks that just took the money and ran.

Regardless of what you would rather see, would you rather have less CPU or GPU choices, or your some of your money goes *poof* because of a crisis and it is not insured by the government, your bank account suddenly closes until someone accepts buying the bank (and those were huge banks), checks returned, debit cards not accepted, ATMs not giving out money, and your taxes goes anyway to the banks, because the insured reserves bankrupts because such huge banks going out of business, they don't have enough money to pay the insurance.
Also stocks crashes, values of saves goes down he drain, etc etc.
So no, you would rather the government bail the bank.
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post #148 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoGTy View Post

Sadly price/performance doesn't seem to matter. People still buy a lot more Nvidia GPUs compared to AMD GPUs.

I guess the brandname does more to sales than performance per dollar does. Look at apple.

*shots fired*

EDIT: in all seriousness, nVidia has a very refined product, is the performance king and is more power efficient.
price/performance gap between the two isnt that big really.

What the let down is the AMD Driver team.It is not that their driver is bad, it is just as good but it is like it always take them sometime to finally get things done/fix, I am not even gonna talk about crossfire support that is even worst. Remember Taihiti GPU? It was suppose to destroy GK104. Heck, even their freesync arent a smooth launch lol

All these kind of issues give people the impression that AMD just suck.

With all that, you look at the price/performance gap isnt really that big = Nvidia is the way to go.
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post #149 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peanuts4 View Post

All I want is a chip as fun as the Barton 2500+ but with a motherboard that doesnt look like it came out in 2002.
So give money to one board of directors and upper management instead of another. Cause you know the people who've been running AMD are saints fighting for the advancement of humankind. Maybe if more companies could get x86 licenses and such we wouldn't be stuck in a rut of lack of real competition.

I didn't say anything about the money going into the pockets of management, that is your own assumption. Frankly, the rest of what you have said is off base as well, and really had nothing to do with what I said.

Back to the mythical bailout we are discussing; it would also assume the money was actually watched and tracked this time, thus ensuring it was spent properly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Defoler View Post

Regardless of what you would rather see, would you rather have less CPU or GPU choices, or your some of your money goes *poof* because of a crisis and it is not insured by the government, your bank account suddenly closes until someone accepts buying the bank (and those were huge banks), checks returned, debit cards not accepted, ATMs not giving out money, and your taxes goes anyway to the banks, because the insured reserves bankrupts because such huge banks going out of business, they don't have enough money to pay the insurance.
Also stocks crashes, values of saves goes down he drain, etc etc.
So no, you would rather the government bail the bank.

Lol.

No, and frankly the only reason the banks needed "bailed" is mostly to do with the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act, and the lack of oversight in the entire industry. In fact, in 1999 when it was repealed, many people knew exactly what was going to happen, and it did.
Edited by PostalTwinkie - 1/31/16 at 3:01pm
    
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post #150 of 173
The government shouldn't bail out any tech company unless it would seriously harm the overall US economy. AMD simply isn't in that position. The US isn't a socialist country, we shouldn't get bureaucrats hands in large companies. There is reason why GM paid off the US government as fast as it could.

If AMD needs to be sold off into pieces, so be it. *Something* will emerge and compete with Intel; or, eventually, Intel will be broken up by the government if things get too bad.
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