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[zauba] Polaris 11 listing - Page 3

post #21 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by xxdarkreap3rxx View Post

You can take a look at market share but you already know the numbers from your previous post. People will buy cards twice as much that only have half a step up in terms of performance. AMD lacks filler cards and it wouldn't surprise me if Nvidia's market share goes up to 90% by 2018.

Let's all hope not.
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post #22 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by criminal View Post

Let's all hope not.

Yeah :/ Wish there was a third player because I don't like either. At least Polaris and Pascal this year will be exciting to see. 28nm needs to die.
post #23 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by xxdarkreap3rxx View Post

Yeah :/ Wish there was a third player because I don't like either. At least Polaris and Pascal this year will be exciting to see. 28nm needs to die.
Agree
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post #24 of 58
I hope it's a good launch and nothing like FuryX. I'm still happy with my R9 290, but I know I'll be needing an upgrade once I switch from 2560x1440 120Hz to 3440x1440 xxx Hz.
    
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post #25 of 58
Well, q2 it is but this begs the question how long will we be stuck at 14 or 16 nm, prolly atleast 5 years
post #26 of 58
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xxdarkreap3rxx View Post

You can take a look at market share but you already know the numbers from your previous post. People will buy cards twice as much that only have half a step up in terms of performance. AMD lacks filler cards and it wouldn't surprise me if Nvidia's market share goes up to 90% by 2018.

If you are insinuating that AMD will not have a top to bottom FINFET GPU stack I am going to argue you are wrong. AMD will most probably have 2 GPUs in 2016 as stated by Raja Koduri. Polaris 10 and Polaris 11. My guess is they will address the segments they are weakest now . USD 150-200 with Polaris 10 (1024 sp, 128 bit GDDR5, 2/4 GB ). Polaris 11 (4096 sp, 8 GB) will be the flagship with HBM2 which will come at the top. AMD will wait for production volumes to improve to bring in mid-range Polaris (2048 sp) sometime in early 2017. My guess is Polaris 10 is 14LPP based and Polaris 11 is 16FF+ based as TSMC has better experience with large GPUs (300+ sq mm) and have better yields.
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post #27 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post

If you are insinuating that AMD will not have a top to bottom FINFET GPU stack I am going to argue you are wrong. AMD will most probably have 2 GPUs in 2016 as stated by Raja Koduri. Polaris 10 and Polaris 11. My guess is they will address the segments they are weakest now . USD 150-200 with Polaris 10 (1024 sp, 128 bit GDDR5, 2/4 GB ). Polaris 11 (4096 sp, 8 GB) will be the flagship with HBM2 which will come at the top. AMD will wait for production volumes to improve to bring in mid-range Polaris (2048 sp) sometime in early 2017. My guess is Polaris 10 is 14LPP based and Polaris 11 is 16FF+ based as TSMC has better experience with large GPUs (300+ sq mm) and have better yields.

What I mean by filler cards are cards released between their current 1.5 to 2 year cycles. Example:

980 Ti: June 2015
980: Sept 2014 Filler
780 Ti: Nov 7 2013
780: May 2013 Filler
680: March 2012
580: Nov 2010
post #28 of 58
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xxdarkreap3rxx View Post

What I mean by filler cards are cards released between their current 1.5 to 2 year cycles. Example:

980 Ti: June 2015
980: Sept 2014 Filler
780 Ti: Nov 7 2013
780: May 2013 Filler
680: March 2012
580: Nov 2010

There is no such thing as a filler card. Nvidia have learnt from Fermi not to attempt a massive die on a new architecture / process node. Kepler launched with GK104 and then filled out the stack. ( GK104 -> GK106 -> GK110 -> GK107) . Maxwell went one step ahead and launched bottom up (GM107 - >GM204 -> GM206 -> GM200). AMD launched HD 7000 in a short span (Tahiti - Cape Verde - Pitcairn). They added Bonaire and Hawaii to complete that gen. For the Maxwell gen AMD rebranded old cards and launched Fiji at the top. The move backfired as Nvidia cleaned up sales due to much better efficiency.

With Polaris and Pascal we are likely to see AMD and Nvidia employ similar strategies. AMD will have a entry level and flagship die. The mid-range die will come later. For Pascal I think Nvidia might choose to go the Maxwell way. Get the smallest GPU out (GP107). Then get the flagship GPU (GP104) launched in 2016. In 2017 fill out the stack with GP106 and GP100 (big die HPC/Tesla/Geforce flagship). AMD will have a bigger successor to Polaris 11 sometime in H2 2017.
Edited by raghu78 - 2/5/16 at 2:44pm
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post #29 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post

There is no such thing as a filler card. Nvidia have learnt from Fermi not to attempt a massive die on a new architecture / process node. Kepler launched with GK104 ( GK104 -> GK106 -> GK110) . Maxwell went one step ahead and launched bottom up (GM107 - >GM204 -> GM206 -> GM200). AMD launched HD 7000 in a short span (Tahiti - Cape Verde - Pitcairn). They added Bonaire and Hawaii to complete that gen. For the Maxwell gen AMD rebranded old cards and launched Fiji at the top. The move backfired as Nvidia cleaned up sales due to much better efficiency.

With Polaris and Pascal we are likely to see AMD and Nvidia employ similar strategies. AMD will have a entry level and flagship die. The mid-range die will come later. For Pascal I think Nvidia might choose to go the Maxwell way. Get the smallest GPU out (GP107). Then get the flagship GPU (GP104) launched in 2016. In 2017 fill out the stack with GP106 and GP100 (big die HPC/Tesla/Geforce flagship). AMD will have a bigger successor to Polaris 11 sometime in H2 2017.

Of course there is. Smaller die before bigger die. Nvidia just releases cards 2x as fast as AMD. Those "in-between" cards are the fillers.
post #30 of 58
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xxdarkreap3rxx View Post

Of course there is. Smaller die before bigger die. Nvidia just releases cards 2x as fast as AMD. Those "in-between" cards are the fillers.

thats rubbish. For the Kepler generation AMD had completely new products competing against every Nvidia part. Lets take the number of new GPU dies manufactured by AMD and Nvidia in 2012-2013.

Tahiti, Cape Verde, Pitcairn, Bonaire, Hawaii.
GK104, GK106, GK110, GK107.

In the next gen AMD just did not have new GPUs except Fiji at the top. For 2014-2015 this is how it was

GM107, GM204, GM206, GM200
Fiji and rebrands.

With the Polaris gen AMD will be back to a full stack refresh and will have atleast 4 GPUs for 2016-2017. AMD will begin with a 100-110 sq mm entry level Polaris 10, 300+ sq mm flagship (for 2016). They will follow it up in early 2017 with a 200+sq mm and a 450+ sq mm big die GPU in mid-late 2017. I doubt AMD is going to cave in as you expect to.
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