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[TF] Pirate Group Suspends New Cracks To Measure Impact On Sales - Page 6

post #51 of 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex132 View Post

Oh nice.

I hope this leads to them stopping all-together already yessir.gif

Actually these kind of groups and cracks have a good benefit on the industry.
Remember when we had sort of malewares as DRM protection systems? Or heavy unoptimises protection systems? Or when steam was really bad?

DRMs have evolved. They no longer rely on too much third party systems to protect the game, they do not interfere with the game (mostly) and they are less CPU heavy like how some used to.

Cracking down bad DRM or protection systems is good to make sure they also get kick out of the market and replaced with better ones.
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post #52 of 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawelr98 View Post

I would rather go for a different theory.

The first denuvo was bypassed.The hole used for that bypass is patched in newer versions.

Perhaps their goal is different. If they won't crack denuvo then the denuvo team may not have ideas about possible holes.
This means crucial holes could remain untouched.
More games using the unpatched version get released.

And then some time later. Boom! All the games using denuvo get cracked at once.
If denovo ends up in many games then such situation would be a huge hit on denuvo.

Also in the meantime they could for example analyse the denuvo further to find more holes.
Using one hole at version X and when it gets patched to X.1 then using another hole and so on.

I mean when reading about their progress on denuvo I found some interesting rumors(I would take it as rumors because they guy claimed translating some chinese source which wasn't mentioned).
There was some statement that current version of denuvo is already cracked but unstable(game having issues).
If this rumor is true then combined with those news I think the above theory could be correct(but of course this is just my speculation).

Couple of issues here:

1. Until they release the crack, games will be old and people will lose their interest, got spoiled etc. So they won't play the game even if it's cracked.
2. There will be sales, so any potential customer will get the game through sales, not paying the full price.
3. This is not like jaibreaking PS3, any potential flaw of Denuvo would be patched the moment they release the crack. It's not going to affect Denuvo nor the publishers. Probably, "see it's also cracked" debate here and there and that's it.

People should focus on sites like G2A and Steam sales. They are the main culprits of sales in future. Those so called potential buyers will focus on sites like G2A or wait Humble Bundle, Steam Sales in order to buy their games. This is still a loss. Customer doesn't buy the game at full price but prefers 50% discount. And you are not selling more games during those discounts, you are selling the number which you were supposed to sell it when it was released.

People should also expect the end of Steam sales. Even now, publishers prefer to triple their games price just before the sale and sell their games from full price but with "X% off" tags, I wouldn't call them fair. Sites like G2A will be on crosshairs once the piracy problem is resolved.
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post #53 of 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alvarez View Post

3. This is not like jaibreaking PS3, any potential flaw of Denuvo would be patched the moment they release the crack. It's not going to affect Denuvo nor the publishers. Probably, "see it's also cracked" debate here and there and that's it.

That's overly optimistic if it's supposed to address the point raised. The point raised being "all games released up to the hack release will be hacked".

But if you wanted to just point out that denuvo will fix the security hole within days, then yes, they'll do that certainly. Don't think anyone implied otherwise! It was simply raised that further security holes might be available.

Of course denuvo might try to fix stuff pre-emptively themselves, too.

Anyway!

edit: as for key selling sites, I'm glad they exist. Though it's a far cry from being able to sell any game/license I bought, to anyone I want to, for real money. We'll get there eventually!
Edited by Tivan - 2/6/16 at 1:16pm
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post #54 of 145
As if 3DM is the only cracking group out there.
    
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post #55 of 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by r0llinlacs View Post

As if 3DM is the only cracking group out there.
They're the only ones that were actually working on it.
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post #56 of 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tivan View Post

That's overly optimistic if it's supposed to address the point raised. The point raised being "all games released up to the hack release will be hacked".

But if you wanted to just point out that denuvo will fix the security hole within days, then yes, they'll do that certainly. Don't think anyone implied otherwise! It was simply raised that further security holes might be available.

Of course denuvo might try to fix stuff pre-emptively themselves, too.

Anyway!

edit: as for key selling sites, I'm glad they exist. Though it's a far cry from being able to sell any game/license I bought, to anyone I want to, for real money. We'll get there eventually!

What I am saying is, the fact all existing Denuvo games until crack's release will be cracked is irrelevant. It will have no impact over Denuvo's reputation. By then, all those Denuvo games will be played, will be spoiled, will enter sale and people will lose its interest. When those games were hacked and their cracks were released, publisher will have gotten their revenues.

As a matter in fact, they will like it, assuming some of those Denuvo titles are brand new IPs which would attract some of the people into a new franchise.

All of the Windows OSs and Steam games are being constantly cracked, no one cares about them.
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post #57 of 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alvarez View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawelr98 View Post

I would rather go for a different theory.

The first denuvo was bypassed.The hole used for that bypass is patched in newer versions.

Perhaps their goal is different. If they won't crack denuvo then the denuvo team may not have ideas about possible holes.
This means crucial holes could remain untouched.
More games using the unpatched version get released.

And then some time later. Boom! All the games using denuvo get cracked at once.
If denovo ends up in many games then such situation would be a huge hit on denuvo.

Also in the meantime they could for example analyse the denuvo further to find more holes.
Using one hole at version X and when it gets patched to X.1 then using another hole and so on.

I mean when reading about their progress on denuvo I found some interesting rumors(I would take it as rumors because they guy claimed translating some chinese source which wasn't mentioned).
There was some statement that current version of denuvo is already cracked but unstable(game having issues).
If this rumor is true then combined with those news I think the above theory could be correct(but of course this is just my speculation).

Couple of issues here:

1. Until they release the crack, games will be old and people will lose their interest, got spoiled etc. So they won't play the game even if it's cracked.
2. There will be sales, so any potential customer will get the game through sales, not paying the full price.
3. This is not like jaibreaking PS3, any potential flaw of Denuvo would be patched the moment they release the crack. It's not going to affect Denuvo nor the publishers. Probably, "see it's also cracked" debate here and there and that's it.

People should focus on sites like G2A and Steam sales. They are the main culprits of sales in future. Those so called potential buyers will focus on sites like G2A or wait Humble Bundle, Steam Sales in order to buy their games. This is still a loss. Customer doesn't buy the game at full price but prefers 50% discount. And you are not selling more games during those discounts, you are selling the number which you were supposed to sell it when it was released.

People should also expect the end of Steam sales. Even now, publishers prefer to triple their games price just before the sale and sell their games from full price but with "X% off" tags, I wouldn't call them fair. Sites like G2A will be on crosshairs once the piracy problem is resolved.

I think it more depends on what kind of breakthrough they would make while cracking it.
Like I said. They don't need to show all the holes they found at first.
Using one hole at the time could keep denuvo ineffective for pretty long amount of time.

I think (based only on what my friend said about his iphone) it would be like with iphone jailbreak.
The methods change but the end it always points at an unpatched hole (in case of iphone error with reading pdf file IIRC).

If some kind of very-hard-to-remove hole gets discovered then denuvo may get into serious trouble.

When it comes to steam sales or G2A it's not an alternative for gamers from some countries.
I will speak for my country.

Poland on average has 5 times lower income than western countries (I compared various wages with germany and UK).
However steam prices are in euro and on exactly the same level as germany.

An average very new title is 60euro. Right now the course of euro is 4.5PLN while before it was around 4PLN.
So the steam price was always around 250PLN. The price of physical copy of the game in the shop few years ago was 100-120PLN so ~50% cheaper than steam.
These days however the prices get higher. It's not that rare to see new games going for 150-180PLN(falling down to ~120PLN after some time where before it would fall to ~80PLN).

If the income/price ratio was the same as western countries then the price should be around 12euro.
This is somewhere around the price that russia(and CIS region in general) has.

Other than the unfair pricing there's one more huge issue.
Not all games can be purchased physically. Especially DLC's are the most troublesome.
You cannot usually purchase DLC's in physical form(or at least digital that has price adjusted).

Moreover some games jump out from physical market after some time.
Arma 3 is a perfect example.
I cannot purchase an physical copy from any source.
If I wanted to purchase the game right now I would be forced to buy from steam and to pay full 60 euro.
There is G2A with a price of ~120PLN but it is the same as release price in 2013.
So all in all it means we pretty much get no discounts as it's rather rare for expensive games to get 66+% discount (because euro course gets higher then 50% discount no longer even equals release price).
Right now I have a friend who simply buys russian keys and I use game sharing to play arma 3 (he is not playing much so I can play freely) as well as other games.

I seriously consider just buying russian games so that I can play newer games (my friend isn't purchasing much games) at normal costs.
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post #58 of 145
If no other group fills the void and we do get this info my guess would be that initially sales will surge but after a few garbage releases sales will slump as people will be reminded why they like to try before buy.
post #59 of 145
Please allow me just throw these possibilities, before you completely buy into the aforementioned reason.

For one, they first claimed in 2 years it will be impossible to beat DRM solutions. Then they claimed they can't beat Denuvo. Now they are saying they are calling it quits. They are either running away, or were paid off by Denuvo(or VMProtect) to keep their stuff off.
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post #60 of 145
Has there been any legitimate study's regarding piracy and sales?

Personally i don't really believe the "try before you buy" argument, perhaps in the future when bandwidth and data caps aren't an issue that could make sense. But right now i don't think many people download a 50GB game just to try it.

I get that some pirates can't afford games so a pirated copy doesn't necessarily equate to a lost sale, but i do think that many that pirate games could afford them, but if given the choice they would rather have something for free. It's my opinion that piracy severely hurts the industry, but i have nothing to back that up, just a hunch. tongue.gif

The consoles that were heavily pirated failed i.e., the Dreamcast and even the PSP in some respects, i think that those are "proof" that piracy is bad for the industry. Worse than piracy however, may be the used game market, not really an issue on PC but still effects multi-plats as a whole.
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