Originally Posted by Alvarez
Originally Posted by Pawelr98
I would rather go for a different theory.
The first denuvo was bypassed.The hole used for that bypass is patched in newer versions.
Perhaps their goal is different. If they won't crack denuvo then the denuvo team may not have ideas about possible holes.
This means crucial holes could remain untouched.
More games using the unpatched version get released.
And then some time later. Boom! All the games using denuvo get cracked at once.
If denovo ends up in many games then such situation would be a huge hit on denuvo.
Also in the meantime they could for example analyse the denuvo further to find more holes.
Using one hole at version X and when it gets patched to X.1 then using another hole and so on.
I mean when reading about their progress on denuvo I found some interesting rumors(I would take it as rumors because they guy claimed translating some chinese source which wasn't mentioned).
There was some statement that current version of denuvo is already cracked but unstable(game having issues).
If this rumor is true then combined with those news I think the above theory could be correct(but of course this is just my speculation).
Couple of issues here:
1. Until they release the crack, games will be old and people will lose their interest, got spoiled etc. So they won't play the game even if it's cracked.
2. There will be sales, so any potential customer will get the game through sales, not paying the full price.
3. This is not like jaibreaking PS3, any potential flaw of Denuvo would be patched the moment they release the crack. It's not going to affect Denuvo nor the publishers. Probably, "see it's also cracked" debate here and there and that's it.
People should focus on sites like G2A and Steam sales. They are the main culprits of sales in future. Those so called potential buyers will focus on sites like G2A or wait Humble Bundle, Steam Sales in order to buy their games. This is still a loss. Customer doesn't buy the game at full price but prefers 50% discount. And you are not selling more games during those discounts, you are selling the number which you were supposed to sell it when it was released.
People should also expect the end of Steam sales. Even now, publishers prefer to triple their games price just before the sale and sell their games from full price but with "X% off" tags, I wouldn't call them fair. Sites like G2A will be on crosshairs once the piracy problem is resolved.
I think it more depends on what kind of breakthrough they would make while cracking it.
Like I said. They don't need to show all the holes they found at first.
Using one hole at the time could keep denuvo ineffective for pretty long amount of time.
I think (based only on what my friend said about his iphone) it would be like with iphone jailbreak.
The methods change but the end it always points at an unpatched hole (in case of iphone error with reading pdf file IIRC).
If some kind of very-hard-to-remove hole gets discovered then denuvo may get into serious trouble.
When it comes to steam sales or G2A it's not an alternative for gamers from some countries.
I will speak for my country.
Poland on average has 5 times lower income than western countries (I compared various wages with germany and UK).
However steam prices are in euro and on exactly the same level as germany.
An average very new title is 60euro. Right now the course of euro is 4.5PLN while before it was around 4PLN.
So the steam price was always around 250PLN. The price of physical copy of the game in the shop few years ago was 100-120PLN so ~50% cheaper than steam.
These days however the prices get higher. It's not that rare to see new games going for 150-180PLN(falling down to ~120PLN after some time where before it would fall to ~80PLN).
If the income/price ratio was the same as western countries then the price should be around 12euro.
This is somewhere around the price that russia(and CIS region in general) has.
Other than the unfair pricing there's one more huge issue.
Not all games can be purchased physically. Especially DLC's are the most troublesome.
You cannot usually purchase DLC's in physical form(or at least digital that has price adjusted).
Moreover some games jump out from physical market after some time.
Arma 3 is a perfect example.
I cannot purchase an physical copy from any source.
If I wanted to purchase the game right now I would be forced to buy from steam and to pay full 60 euro.
There is G2A with a price of ~120PLN but it is the same as release price in 2013.
So all in all it means we pretty much get no discounts as it's rather rare for expensive games to get 66+% discount (because euro course gets higher then 50% discount no longer even equals release price).
Right now I have a friend who simply buys russian keys and I use game sharing to play arma 3 (he is not playing much so I can play freely) as well as other games.
I seriously consider just buying russian games so that I can play newer games (my friend isn't purchasing much games) at normal costs.