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Next-gen GPUs - 10nm or 7nm?

post #1 of 10
Thread Starter 
This year will see the release of 14/16 nm GPUs from both nVidia and AMD after they have skipped 20 nm. 14/16 nm GPU lineup will persist in 2017. However, TSMC states they'll have 7 nm production ready in 2017. So, will AMD and nVidia skip 10 nm for their GPUs in 2018 and turn directly to 7 nm?
post #2 of 10
Thread Starter 
Does anybody have any idea?
post #3 of 10
lmao.. we are going to be on 14nm for atleast 2 generations.

we've been on 28nm for a while, companies know they can eventually get more out of the process than the could initially.

20nm failing is something entirely different that merely skipping it.

Nvidia might make its way for down 14nm in the next gen but i doubt it.

10nm and 7nm will be a ARM and intel market (not together but the arm processors in phones will be easier for those fabs to sell as they will pay more than GPU companies that know they can last a few gens on a single node)
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post #4 of 10
I definitely don't believe GloFo's timetable. They dont have a great track record.


Even if it is ready in 2017, Apple and the Android chipmakers will eat all their capacity for awhile before a higher-power variant of the process comes out, like they did for 14nm.
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post #5 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlailScHLAMP View Post

lmao.. we are going to be on 14nm for atleast 2 generations.

we've been on 28nm for a while, companies know they can eventually get more out of the process than the could initially.

20nm failing is something entirely different that merely skipping it.

Nvidia might make its way for down 14nm in the next gen but i doubt it.

10nm and 7nm will be a ARM and intel market (not together but the arm processors in phones will be easier for those fabs to sell as they will pay more than GPU companies that know they can last a few gens on a single node)

I agree. The same semi process for two architectures.

The master of all semi companies, Intel, is adding another generation to it's tick/tock cycle since transistor shrinks can't keep up with design changes.
post #6 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmonnin View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlailScHLAMP View Post

lmao.. we are going to be on 14nm for atleast 2 generations.

we've been on 28nm for a while, companies know they can eventually get more out of the process than the could initially.

20nm failing is something entirely different that merely skipping it.

Nvidia might make its way for down 14nm in the next gen but i doubt it.

10nm and 7nm will be a ARM and intel market (not together but the arm processors in phones will be easier for those fabs to sell as they will pay more than GPU companies that know they can last a few gens on a single node)

I agree. The same semi process for two architectures.

The master of all semi companies, Intel, is adding another generation to it's tick/tock cycle since transistor shrinks can't keep up with design changes.

I wouldn't necessarily call them the masters, IMHO IBM deservse that title thumb.gif

Over active Zealot is more fitting.
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post #7 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlailScHLAMP View Post

I wouldn't necessarily call them the masters, IMHO IBM deservse that title thumb.gif

Over active Zealot is more fitting.

But we're in the context of mass production consumer logic products. So Intel in CPUs and foundaries like TSMC, Samsung, GloFo, UMC.
post #8 of 10
Intel has dropped to a 3 process cycle and yearly products and its not clear if that will also happen with the jump from 16nm to 10nm. I hope we will see consumer products on 10nm in 2018 and that it will be a worthwhile process improvement (since the numbers haven't meant much about the transistor sizes for quite a long time). But no one can predict the future.

So at the very least we should see a larger GPU die based product next year with hopefully HBM2 giving us a combined product that is pretty compelling performance improvement on the same process. Whether we get another round of refreshes and such is hugely dependent on TSMC/Samsung/GloFo and what they actually manage to deliver in terms of process and improvements.
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post #9 of 10
Thread Starter 
Yes, it is quite probable that 14/16 nm will be reused for another generation of video cards, but the question is what will be next after 14/16 nm?
post #10 of 10
It may be more complicated than just another die shrink.
"Intel however believes that it will be possible to reach at least 7 nm, though it will perhaps require use of materials other than silicon, such as indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs)."
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