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[S/A] Serious problem hits Nvidia’s consumer Pascal GPUs - Page 3  

post #21 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

I agree 2 is more likely. Finfet in general improves yields a significant amount versus earlier planar nodes, which makes up for part of the wafer cost to some extent.

If Nvidia is able to produce gp100 at this point, even if it is single digits, gp104 should not be a problem because it is vastly less complex and without the HBM stuff.

GDDR5x could be a bottleneck as most were expecting this at the end of the year for cards, not end of q2.

I am guessing, Nvidia is holding back stock to help deplete their maxwell parts. There is still way too much maxwell cards on the market and part of this is because of Polaris. Polaris 10 prehype and pricing makes it below most of the cards on clearance right now. This is making people wait, and I think Nvidia might just have to bite the bullet and release gp206 early or do an inventory write off and drop pascal prices further.

AMD on the other hand has likely stopped 28nm chips for a while because they have less invested into it at this point. They milked their rebrands for all their worth and wanted to focus on finfet. This means there is less of a write off for them at this point, and they are more willing to release new cards because there is going to be less canibalization of their cards.

But why would nvidia about care how many chips (that they already sold) are still available on the market?

If you're implying nvidia is still in possession of unsold maxwell chips, well, that would just be poor planning and really imply they decided last minute to rush release pascal
post #22 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Majin SSJ Eric View Post

I suspect you are right and if true it is shameful that Nvidia went on ahead with what they KNEW was gonna be a total paper launch anyway, just to beat AMD to release (especially when they were also well aware that AMD wasn't even trying to compete with Pascal anyway).

NV had to feed their lovers that are willing to throw whatever money they want to a "high end" chip that's the world's best and will never be beaten.

I am an NV lover but love only goes so far for me and about $350-$449 is tops for a mid tier "high end" chip in my book.

I'd be way more hyped with a $449 single 8-pin high tier "mid end" chip personally.

As many people as I see buying these 1080's up I don't really see a supply issue, it's more a high demand issue but when the one's that want them have them there will be tons in stock all over.
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post #23 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by rx7racer View Post

As many people as I see buying these 1080's up I don't really see a supply issue, it's more a high demand issue but when the one's that want them have them there will be tons in stock all over.

Even a quick "completed sales" search on eBay for the 1070 alone, shows people are willing to pay in upwards of $550-$600 on even a Founder's Edition.
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post #24 of 274
What new games are out within the next month that necessitates buying these cards right now?

I do think nVidia rushed Pascal out because of Polaris. Do I think there is "an issue," no.
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post #25 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by FLCLimax View Post

Not really the best of sources.

They hard to find sorta so it has a good a good source...Also they been in stock but mostly they fly out of stock which is been a trend
post #26 of 274
Massive clickbait title behind paywall? Right, because that isn't a conflict of interest. Anyone care to paraphrase what it says?
    
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post #27 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkenietz View Post

But why would nvidia about care how many chips (that they already sold) are still available on the market?

If you're implying nvidia is still in possession of unsold maxwell chips, well, that would just be poor planning and really imply they decided last minute to rush release pascal

Yes, I feel pascal was a bit rushed. This launch has not gone smoothly in any manner. It just overall seems poorly planned.

Nvidia invested alot more into it's 2nd gen 28nm products and as a result, likely made a pretty large inventory of 28nm products. Add in the low cost of 28nm wafers when finfet wafers windup and they probably thought, they could get away with 28nm a bit longer. This as a result, leads to too much 28nm products in the channels and still at retailers. But with leaks and demonstrations of polaris at the end of 2015, Nvidia could not sit on 28nms.

The problem is for Nvidia to maintain it's marketing advantage, it can't just rely on their old 28nm products to carry them through. A nodal advantage is enormous and it was obvious AMD wrote off 2nd get 28nm, so they were putting alot more resources into 14nm finfet. So Nvidia needed a counter for Polaris.

If AMD got to launch the 480x without some sort of bullet point from Nvidia to counter them, AMD could regain much of it branding prestige back. E.g a card with gtx 980/390x performance at 300 dollars is a solid card. Better than Nvidia has on the market. What Nvidia likely knew, was the rx480 performance before most of us. I was able to guess it within 5% of it in march. And Nvidia likely has moles and connections and probably knew about it in early january. They also knew AMD was releasing something early into the 2nd half of 2016 because AMD literally said they would.

It was important for Nvidia to keep their branding advantage, so Nvidia had to do something but they also didn't want to cannibalize there excess 28nm products on the market. The solution for them was to release a supply limited gm204 run. When you add the dual pricing of pascal [450/699 rip off founders editions(reality) and $380/$599 reviewers/marketing pricing(illusion)], along with the limited quantity, it keeps partners happy and reduces the caniballization of 28nm cards. To me, the 1070 attempt to be an rx480 spoiler, particularly from a marketing perspective.

For marketing purposes, the gtx 1070 in particular is a Polaris 10 killer. Although not at the retail level 380 dollars, in terms of marketing, a $380 dollar card that performs about 35-40% faster than a 390x/980, nukes the 300 dollar price point if the rx 480 were to launch at that price. This is because getting 35-40% more performance for 26.6% more money is a good deal and makes the gtx 1070 a better deal. Even those this price/performance only exists on paper, it would significantly soften the positive impact and positive reviews for the rx 480 if it were to launch at 300, which is probably the proper price point for a 232nm finfet product(this is still cheaper than the 7870 which was a smaller chip on a much cheaper process).

What Nvidia likely didn't expect AMD to do is cut to the bone and to hurt themselves to get that marketshare and to get those positive reviews to build up their brand. Being 45% cheaper while possessing 70-75% of the performance puts the value proposition back in AMD wheel house which gives them marketshare and branding presence at the cost of profit. AMD branding/marketshare took at hit big time on 28nm and this is what AMD needs to build up the most. They are going to gain much of their reputation and marketshare back with the rx480. Their profits will take a hit, but building themselves up in the eyes of consumers is what they need most right now.Particularly if they do sell this division.

This is a pretty crazy GPU war so far and AMD hasn't even released their products yet. But AMD has definitely won the marketing war this time around even those it looks like Nvidia's took the engineering one. And what Nvidia has proven in the past is the marketing one is the more important one to take.
Edited by tajoh111 - 6/24/16 at 6:30pm
post #28 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

I agree 2 is more likely. Finfet in general improves yields a significant amount versus earlier planar nodes, which makes up for part of the wafer cost to some extent.
16nm FINFET yields are lower than 28nm nodes. Thats why you see a GTX 1070 with 25% cores disabled while a GTX 670 only had 12.5% cores disabled.
Quote:
AMD on the other hand has likely stopped 28nm chips for a while because they have less invested into it at this point. They milked their rebrands for all their worth and wanted to focus on finfet. This means there is less of a write off for them at this point, and they are more willing to release new cards because there is going to be less canibalization of their cards.

Nvidia's 75% GPU market share means it will be much more difficult to move all of their GPUs to 16nm Pascal quickly. Nvidia is competing for wafers at TSMC while AMD is GF's No.1 and highest volume customer. AMD should have no supply issues. Yields are lower at GF but still AMD will sell every Polaris GPU they make.
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post #29 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post

16nm FINFET yields are lower than 28nm nodes. Thats why you see a GTX 1070 with 25% cores disabled while a GTX 670 only had 12.5% cores disabled.
Nvidia's 75% GPU market share means it will be much more difficult to move all of their GPUs to 16nm Pascal quickly. Nvidia is competing for wafers at TSMC while AMD is GF's No.1 and highest volume customer. AMD should have no supply issues. Yields are lower at GF but still AMD will sell every Polaris GPU they make.

There's a paper out there, that shows finfet gives you better yields than planar. I don't feel like digging it up again because I have quoted it too many times already

Apple was getting better yields with 16nm and tsmc. TSMC manufacturing volume and scale is vastly larger than GF. TSMC has revenues in the 25 billion region and GF is in the 5 billion region. Considering AMD pulled out of TSMC, it likely gave enough volume to keep Nvidia happy.

The reason why Nvidia likely disabled so much of the 1070 this time around was greed.

They couldn't do a wonky memory interface again(which made everyone crap on them) and wanted to make the 1080 a viable product in regards to the price difference between the two products. Underclocking does not work for obvious reason, so this meant neutering the card a lot more which has the added effect of allowing you to turn rather faulty chips into viable products. A win win for nvidia but sucks for consumers.

Once maxwell is off the table and/or rx 480 products products come about, we will likely see a flood of 1070 along with the 1060.
Edited by tajoh111 - 6/24/16 at 6:45pm
post #30 of 274
AMD RX 480 Shipments Hit US Stores, Supply 25x Larger Than GTX 1080 At Launch


Either massive QC problems with Pascal architecture, GDDR5X design , or GDDR5X supply issues. Not likely 14nm issues, unless AMD pulled some supply trickery with their priority (we know AMD doesn't have that kind of clout.)

Almost certainly just GDDR5X supply issues, and almost certainly not a year long problem.

AMD will clean up in the short term, though. And NV definitely deserves some criticism for this near-paper launch. Hardly anyone I know has gotten their hands on a card yet.
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