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[S/A] Serious problem hits Nvidia’s consumer Pascal GPUs - Page 4  

post #31 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

Apple was getting better yields with 16nm and tsmc.

The reason why Nvidia likely disabled so much of the 1070 this time around was greed.

They couldn't do a wonky memory interface again(which made everyone crap on them) and wanted to make the 1080 a viable product in regards to the price difference between the two products. Underclocking does not work for obvious reason, so this meant neutering the card a lot more.

TSMC has the best yields followed by Samsung and finally GF. But the difference in yields between a 100 sq mm mobile chip which runs at 4-5W and a 300 sq mm GPU which runs at 180w is huge. So assuming TSMC can yield 300 sq mm high performance GPUs just like 100 sq mm mobile GPUs is basically wrong. Nvidia disabled 25% of GP104 because thats likely the configuration which yields the most working chips.
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post #32 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post

TSMC has the best yields followed by Samsung and finally GF. But the difference in yields between a 100 sq mm mobile chip which runs at 4-5W and a 300 sq mm GPU which runs at 180w is huge. So assuming TSMC can yield 300 sq mm high performance GPUs just like 100 sq mm mobile GPUs is basically wrong. Nvidia disabled 25% of GP104 because thats likely the configuration which yields the most working chips.

The biggest reason for the cut off is for the difference in performance.

Nvidia wants there to be a sizable gap between the 1080 and 1070 because that's the only way they are going to justify the mammoth 220 dollar price difference between them. Since they can't use the memory interface trick any more, that means cutting off more and more of the chip.

Plus using such a cut off chip improves yields drastically which equals higher profits.

Both are fueled by greed but at this point, since the 1070 out performs everything else at its price point, the consumer doesn't have much choice.

One more thing to note, what would happen to maxwell pricing if $380, 1070's did arrive on the market? Basically anything maxwell would have to be sold at or below cost. $300 dollar gtx 980 ti is great for us but.....

Would partners or even Nvidia be happy about this considering the 1070 no matter how good the yields are, they are going to be supply limited.
Edited by tajoh111 - 6/24/16 at 7:01pm
post #33 of 274
The yields should be terrible since the whole thing was rushed before it's time. Just look at the reference PCB, that looks more like a testing board rather than a complete card. And all that just to beat AMD in release time? Christ.
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post #34 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

Yes, I feel pascal was a bit rushed. This launch has not gone smoothly in any manner. It just overall seems poorly planned.

Nvidia invested alot more into it's 2nd gen 28nm products and as a result, likely made a pretty large inventory of 28nm products. Add in the low cost of 28nm wafers when finfet wafers windup and they probably thought, they could get away with 28nm a bit longer. This as a result, leads to too much 28nm products in the channels and still at retailers. But with leaks and demonstrations of polaris at the end of 2015, Nvidia could not sit on 28nms.

The problem is for Nvidia to maintain it's marketing advantage, it can't just rely on their old 28nm products to carry them through. A nodal advantage is enormous and it was obvious AMD wrote off 2nd get 28nm, so they were putting alot more resources into 14nm finfet. So Nvidia needed a counter for Polaris.

If AMD got to launch the 480x without some sort of bullet point from Nvidia to counter them, AMD could regain much of it branding prestige back. E.g a card with gtx 980/390x performance at 300 dollars is a solid card. Better than Nvidia has on the market. What Nvidia likely knew, was the rx480 performance before most of us. I was able to guess it within 5% of it in march. And Nvidia likely has moles and connections and probably knew about it in early january. They also knew AMD was releasing something early into the 2nd half of 2016 because AMD literally said they would.

It was important for Nvidia to keep their branding advantage, so Nvidia had to do something but they also didn't want to cannibalize there excess 28nm products on the market. The solution for them was to release a supply limited gm204 run. When you add the dual pricing of pascal [450/699 rip off founders editions(reality) and $380/$599 reviewers/marketing pricing(illusion)], along with the limited quantity, it keeps partners happy and reduces the caniballization of 28nm cards. To me, the 1070 attempt to be an rx480 spoiler, particularly from a marketing perspective.

For marketing purposes, the gtx 1070 in particular is a Polaris 10 killer. Although not at the retail level 380 dollars, in terms of marketing, a $380 dollar card that performs about 35-40% faster than a 390x/980, nukes the 300 dollar price point if the rx 480 were to launch at that price. This is because getting 35-40% more performance for 26.6% more money is a good deal and makes the gtx 1070 a better deal. Even those this price/performance only exists on paper, it would significantly soften the positive impact and positive reviews for the rx 480 if it were to launch at 300, which is probably the proper price point for a 232nm finfet product(this is still cheaper than the 7870 which was a smaller chip on a much cheaper process).

What Nvidia likely didn't expect AMD to do is cut to the bone and to hurt themselves to get that marketshare and to get those positive reviews to build up their brand. Being 45% cheaper while possessing 70-75% of the performance puts the value proposition back in AMD wheel house which gives them marketshare and branding presence at the cost of profit. AMD branding/marketshare took at hit big time on 28nm and this is what AMD needs to build up the most. They are going to gain much of their reputation and marketshare back with the rx480. Their profits will take a hit, but building themselves up in the eyes of consumers is what they need most right now.Particularly if they do sell this division.

This is a pretty crazy GPU war so far and AMD hasn't even released their products yet. But AMD has definitely won the marketing war this time around even those it looks like Nvidia's took the engineering one. And what Nvidia has proven in the past is the marketing one is the more important one to take.

Excellent points; now tell this to Kyle and see what he thinks. devil.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

The biggest reason for the cut off is for the difference in performance.

Nvidia wants there to be a sizable gap between the 1080 and 1070 because that's the only way they are going to justify the mammoth 220 dollar price difference between them. Since they can't use the memory interface trick any more, that means cutting off more and more of the chip.

Plus using such a cut off chip improves yields drastically which equals higher profits.

Both are fueled by greed but at this point, since the 1070 out performs everything else at its price point, the consumer doesn't have much choice.

One more thing to note, what would happen to maxwell pricing if $380, 1070's did arrive on the market? Basically anything maxwell would have to be sold at or below cost. $300 dollar gtx 980 ti is great for us but.....

Would partners or even Nvidia be happy about this considering the 1070 no matter how good the yields are, they are going to be supply limited.

The 970 and 980 also had a $220 price differential, and even the performance delta was more or less the same (15-20%).

The 1070 looks impressive compared to Maxwell only because nVidia used up most of the OC headroom, and GM200 was pretty underclocked to fit within 250W TDP.

Part in bold: tell that to those who're still convinced the "real" MSRP of 1070 is $379 lol
Edited by magnek - 6/24/16 at 7:11pm
post #35 of 274
Pascall was suposed to launch in october devil-smiley-019.gif
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post #36 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by magnek View Post

Excellent points; now tell this to Kyle and see what he thinks. devil.gif
The 970 and 980 also had a $220 price differential, and even the performance delta was more or less the same (15-20%).

The 1070 looks impressive compared to Maxwell only because nVidia used up most of the OC headroom, and GM200 was pretty underclocked to fit within 250W TDP.

Part in bold: tell that to those who're still convinced the "real" MSRP of 1070 is $379 lol

Yup, the 380 and 599 is pure marketing at this point mostly. When we see more competition and maxwell depleted, we will see 380 and 599 cards, but right now, it's just a move to try to make the reviews more positive.

This time around, Nvidia can't do the wonky interface to increase the performance difference between the cards, so this meant stripping away more and more of the card away. a 25% cut probably means they have a crap load of 1070's that are waiting to be shipped.

I just can't imagine there being yield problems considering they made a working, sellable 610mm2 chip already and will have this ready for mass production at the end of this year.

A 314mm2 chip is child's play in comparison. When I see the amount of pascal chips on the market and the relatively unaggressiveness pricecuts to maxwell, there is simply to many maxwell cards to clear out and they don't want to do a firesale on them just yet. A large influx of pascal cards, would do just that.
post #37 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

AMD RX 480 Shipments Hit US Stores, Supply 25x Larger Than GTX 1080 At Launch


Either massive QC problems with Pascal architecture, GDDR5X design , or GDDR5X supply issues. Not likely 14nm issues, unless AMD pulled some supply trickery with their priority (we know AMD doesn't have that kind of clout.)

Almost certainly just GDDR5X supply issues, and almost certainly not a year long problem.

AMD will clean up in the short term, though. And NV definitely deserves some criticism for this near-paper launch. Hardly anyone I know has gotten their hands on a card yet.

Headlines after Polaris launch "Nvidia increasing shipment of Pascal chips by 25x"
post #38 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by tajoh111 View Post

Yup, the 380 and 599 is pure marketing at this point mostly. When we see more competition and maxwell depleted, we will see 380 and 599 cards, but right now, it's just a move to try to make the reviews more positive.

This time around, Nvidia can't do the wonky interface to increase the performance difference between the cards, so this meant stripping away more and more of the card away. a 25% cut probably means they have a crap load of 1070's that are waiting to be shipped.

I just can't imagine there being yield problems considering they made a working, sellable 610mm2 chip already and will have this ready for mass production at the end of this year.

A 314mm2 chip is child's play in comparison. When I see the amount of pascal chips on the market and the relatively unaggressiveness pricecuts to maxwell, there is simply to many maxwell cards to clear out and they don't want to do a firesale on them just yet. A large influx of pascal cards, would do just that.

For some reason I feel obligated to point out a $609 1080 does exist. But yeah I agree with your points otherwise.

Though I'd also add it seems like they're sacrificing Maxwell somewhat to prop up 1070, especially since 980 Ti after price cuts is still either marginally more expensive or just about the same price as a 1070. And for the same price there's absolutely no reason to get a 980 Ti.
post #39 of 274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

AMD RX 480 Shipments Hit US Stores, Supply 25x Larger Than GTX 1080 At Launch

AMD will clean up in the short term, though. And NV definitely deserves some criticism for this near-paper launch. Hardly anyone I know has gotten their hands on a card yet.

I would consider the Polaris launch a failure if they delay custom designs and limit the market to reference design.
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post #40 of 274
Well, he DID call this correctly... http://semiaccurate.com/2009/10/06/nvidia-kills-gtx285-gtx275-gtx260-abandons-mid-and-high-end-market/ ,.. so, no agenda with this guy. he is on the up and up when it comes to nVidia.....
Edited by carlhil2 - 6/24/16 at 8:03pm
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