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[Various] Pascal Titan could be 50% faster than the GeForce GTX 1080 - Rumoured to launch in August - Page 56  

post #551 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by philosopher View Post

Their incentive will be to move units. .

Their incentive is to maximize profits. Greater volumes don't necessary align with said goal.

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post #552 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChevChelios View Post

nope, its 20%



noone knows when titan P comes

IMO - in early 2017

The temperature, clocks, frames, what have you, are all abysmal on this particular 1080, which is what a real-life scenario would be like at the moment. Not your 2100 24/7 clocked unicorn cards that nobody has seen, yet judge performance on. So yes, at the moment it's not really this magical minimum 20% difference that started off as 40.
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post #553 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by sherlock View Post

Plenty of evidence/track record goes against a early(2016) Titan P release
  • The OG Titan is most comparable to the Titan P(first big chip gaming product on a new process), and that one took 11 month after 680.
  • AMD is totally noncompetitive at the high end, latest Vega estimate isn't Q1 2017 and the "490" seems to be 480 CFX on 1 card(slower than 1080 at 2X the power consumption), the card NV should release next is 1050 and/or 1050Ti to compete with 460/470 that's coming next, I'd venture to guess those are the cards that will be announced at Gamescon instead of the Titan P.
  • HBM2 avaliablity still unclear and a GK100 based Titan P need those. GP102 is just a chiphell invention with no accurate proof.

Also, Titan P at any likely price point($1K+) wouldn't hurt 1080 resale value, so your 1080 decision shouldn't really be impacted by a imminent Titan P even if that were the case.

I do not believe this logic. tongue.gif
  • What the OG Titan did is pretty random, that is the only example we have with other releases being pretty different. Using a single data point to make future predictions is often misleading.
  • Nvidia is competing with their old lineups, not AMDs. Nvidia could make more money releasing a high end card now that is a good upgrade from the 980Ti/TitanX, and another in a year, than they could holding it back and not selling any top end cards for six months. How many 1080s do they have to sell to make as much money as they do when selling a single Titan P?
  • HBM2 availability still unclear, there might be enough for a Titan P release.

Of course, my logic is heavily influenced by hope. wink.gif
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post #554 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asmodian View Post

I do not believe this logic.
  • What the OG Titan did is pretty random, that is the only example we have with other releases being pretty different. Using a single data point to make future predictions is often misleading.
  • Nvidia is competing with their old lineups, not AMDs. Nvidia could make more money releasing a high end card now that is a good upgrade from the 980Ti/TitanX, and another in a year, than they could holding it back and not selling any top end cards for six months. How many 1080s do they have to sell to make as much money as they do when selling a single Titan P?
  • HBM2 availability still unclear, there might be enough for a Titan P release.

Of course, my logic is heavily influenced by hope. wink.gif

OG Titan(built on a still new 28nm process, like Titan P is on a still new 16nm process) is a better example than Titan X(which is built on a mature 28nm process), and Titan X(6 month after 980) is where all the optimistic People get their "Titan P in 2016" idea from.

Nvidia like Intel is competing with their old lineup, what does/did Intel do when competing with their old lineup:
  • Drag the release cycle longer(12 month cycle enlongate into 16-18 month cycle)
  • Make Generational Product Improvement smaller(Tick-Tock goes to Tick-Tock-Tock and s)
  • Increase Price for the same SKU for new generations

All of this works against the optimistic projection of August 2016 Titan P at $1000 with 50% improvement over 1080. When competing with your old lineup only, it makes more sense to slow down pace of development and save on R&D instead of keep pushing out new product.
Quote:
How many 1080s do they have to sell to make as much money as they do when selling a single Titan P?
Given How much more silicon a Titan P needs(610 vs GP104 which is around 314) and HBM2 price vs GDDR5X, not as much as you think if they keep the price at $1000. 1080 at $650-700 might be more profitable per unit than a $1K Titan P at this stage of yield(and all the good GP100 chip have to go to Compute because that's more profitable) and HBM2 price/avaliablity. Also Titans don't sell much to begin with, There are already more 1080 than Titan X in people's rigs according to the June Steam Survey.
Edited by sherlock - 7/9/16 at 1:50pm
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post #555 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klocek001 View Post

facts are pretty predictable. we are gonna see a $1000 cut down chip, with fully enabled one priced at +$1200 at $1400, if Vega is either waay late or can't deliver the performance to overtake cut Titan P.
If we get Vega that is stuck between 1080 and Titan P just like Fury X was stuck between 980 and 980Ti, and couldn't even touch Titan X, we'll see nvidia charge more.

I think the situation will be getting worse if 1060 turns out to be faster than 480. AMD will simply not be able to compete if Polaris vs Pascal architecture comparison turns out to be worse than GCN 1.1-1.3 vs Maxwell


I don't give a crap about overpaying for a GPU once, but if that's the sign of things to stay for a long,long while then I might give that Xbox scorpio a second thought

FTFY

Titans have historically been $350 more than the next cutdown card.
post #556 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klocek001 View Post

I don't give a crap about overpaying for a GPU once, but if that's the sign of things to stay for a long,long while then I might give that Xbox scorpio a second thought

That's the thing. It's staying because you did it once. And then again. Once a company figures they can screw you over once and get away with it, they won't stop it doing so.
Heck, the only reason we're getting screwed hardware every generation, is because you guys keep giving in and keep telling yourselves it's a good deal. Nvidia isn't to blame (as I pointed out in an other thread: a system that allows for derailed capitalism and dumb consumers are to blame), the buyers of their products are. If no one buys them at that price, the price goes down.

Nvidia is now trying to figure out the equilibrium between how much they can overcharge us without losing to much sales volume.
Quote:
Originally Posted by magnek View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Klocek001 View Post

facts are pretty predictable. we are gonna see a $1000 cut down chip, with fully enabled one priced at +$1200 at $1400, if Vega is either waay late or can't deliver the performance to overtake cut Titan P.
If we get Vega that is stuck between 1080 and Titan P just like Fury X was stuck between 980 and 980Ti, and couldn't even touch Titan X, we'll see nvidia charge more.

I think the situation will be getting worse if 1060 turns out to be faster than 480. AMD will simply not be able to compete if Polaris vs Pascal architecture comparison turns out to be worse than GCN 1.1-1.3 vs Maxwell


I don't give a crap about overpaying for a GPU once, but if that's the sign of things to stay for a long,long while then I might give that Xbox scorpio a second thought

FTFY

Titans have historically been $350 more than the next cutdown card.

And small dies have historically been sub $300. Well, it became history with the GTX 680. Look at Nvidia now, managing to charge $700 for the small die and people still think it's a fair price. I'm expecting a $1400-1500 Titan and a $1000 GTX 1080 Ti.



On a side note: what I'm most afraid of, is that AMD is going to price a product that's nearly as fast, just below the Nvidia equivalent - instead of forcing a lower price of Nvidia. Nvidia won't give a crap and the consumer is stuck with the crappy GPU market.
Edited by xioros - 7/9/16 at 2:22pm
   
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post #557 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by sherlock View Post

OG Titan(built on a still new 28nm process, like Titan P is on a still new 16nm process) is a better example than Titan X(which is built on a mature 28nm process), and Titan X(6 month after 980) is where all the optimistic People get their "Titan P in 2016" idea from.

Nvidia like Intel is competing with their old lineup, what does/did Intel do when competing with their old lineup:
  • Drag the release cycle longer(12 month cycle enlongate into 16-18 month cycle)
  • Make Generational Product Improvement smaller(Tick-Tock goes to Tick-Tock-Tock and s)
  • Increase Price for the same SKU for new generations

True, the OG Titan is a better data point than the Titan X, but it is only one data point and it is the first use of the "Titan" branding in a situation where the next planned node failed and Nvidia was reinventing their roadmaps. I seriously doubt we can use the OG Titan as a reference for the future given the 780Ti and Titan Black, those will never happen again.

The entire 28nm node was new and different, GK104 was released as the flagship for the first time, GK100 failed and needed to be reworked into the GK110, the 20nm node failed, and the invention of a new high margin price point all confused the release schedule and make basing future predictions on what happened then a bad idea, in my opinion.

A big difference between Nvidia and Intel is that Nvidia's new products are still significantly faster than their old ones. Intel is also chasing very different markets right now, the server market is well planned, mature, and predictable. The GPU market is still weird and evolving quickly, Nvidia holding back on GPU R&D right now is not safe in the way holding back on CPU R&D is for Intel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sherlock View Post

All of this works against the optimistic projection of August 2016 Titan P at $1000 with 50% improvement over 1080. When competing with your old lineup only, it makes more sense to slow down pace of development and save on R&D instead of keep pushing out new product.
Given How much more silicon a Titan P needs(610 vs GP104 which is around 314) and HBM2 price vs GDDR5X, not as much as you think if they keep the price at $1000. 1080 at $650-700 might be more profitable per unit than a $1K Titan P at this stage of yield(and all the good GP100 chip have to go to Compute because that's more profitable) and HBM2 price/avaliablity. Also Titans don't sell much to begin with, There are already more 1080 than Titan X in people's rigs according to the June Steam Survey.

I agree that a Titan P in late August seems unexpectedly soon but I think we might have another new situation with the HBM2 cards. At a $1000 I will agree that the Titan might not have great margins, buy is $1000 really the market limit for a Titan P with 16GB of HBM2, I don't think so. This is the first time the Titan would actually be significantly different compared to the X80Ti. What does Nvidia do with all the leaky, high power use, Tesla chips? Selling them to me now, for well above $1000, might strike Nvidia as a good idea. I am not going to buy a 1080 but I am willing to drop a lot of money on something that would be significantly faster than my 980Ti, and, like a lot of people, I will do this every year if something better is available. Nvidia really wants people like me buying a Titan instead of Ti so they need something to differentiate the Titan enough that I am willing to pay that extra. Releasing something like the 780 Ti after the OG Titan hurts a lot, and the Titan X is much too similar to a 980 Ti to do it. However, a version with HBM2 that gets released early? Their average price per card sold could go through the roof. tongue.gif

The Titan P 12 and 16GB cards could be very expensive (as if $1000 wasn't) and be out a long time before the 1080 Ti. We might not see the GP102 on a 1080 Ti until spring, Nvidia might even call it the 1180 like @guttheslayer keeps claiming. This would allow the Titan line to sell more units, without the Ti undercutting it, it gives flush 1080 owners something to upgrade to quickly*, and it even reinforces the Titan brand as the "super high margin end" line.

I think Nvidia is still figuring out how the Titan, x80Ti, and standard x80/x70/x60 lineup fit together to generate the most money.

*six months might be enough time that people want get something new and many just aren't the type to drop stupid amounts of money on the Titan line.
Edited by Asmodian - 7/9/16 at 3:01pm
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post #558 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by ref View Post

Man, a 4k 144hz panel needs to be released ASAP.

I'll be getting 2 of these whenever they release, but I'd love to upgrade from 2k 144hz. I just can't go back to 60hz though, first world problems.

I still think we will see a Titan before 2017, I'm not sold on it being available in August though, Late September would be my absolute earliest uniformed, gut feeling guess.

yessir.gif

Not that this Acer Predator isn't anything amazing, I just want 4K to go with all the amazing. At 4K, I will be happy for a number of years, then by the time we have 8K 144 Hz, I will be too damn blind to use a computer anyways!
    
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post #559 of 956
Oooh boy I can't wait. Hopefully nothing breaks, because the next couple month's rent income are designated Titan funds.

My OG Titan is getting a little old.
post #560 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just Spear View Post

Oooh boy I can't wait. Hopefully nothing breaks, because the next couple month's rent income are designated Titan funds.

My OG Titan is getting a little old.

"Dear Tenants,

Due to the up and coming release of the Pascal based Titan class GPU from Nvidia, I have opted to increase your rent by $25 per month."

biggrin.gif
    
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Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Rumors and Unconfirmed Articles › [Various] Pascal Titan could be 50% faster than the GeForce GTX 1080 - Rumoured to launch in August