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[WCCF] Nvidia's Volta could launch as early as 2H 2017 ON 16nm node - Page 12

post #111 of 272
How you wanna bet that the vast majority of that R&D was spent on getting their design to work with 16 nm FF instead of the actual architecture design itself? This is in addition todesigning a suitable interposer, memory controllers, and getting HBM2 to work with GP100 for the HPC market. If only a small portion of that "billions" was spent on architecture design, then it could amortize in a relatively short amount of time.

The other key thing you keep ignoring is the remarkable architectural similarity between Maxwell and Pascal. When was the last time two supposedly different architectures from nVidia showed such similarity? I even linked to the GTX 1080 white paper where nVidia spelled out themselves what the differences in the uarchs were, and it's really not much -- updated PolyMorph engine to include SMP for VR stuff; 20% more efficient memory compression; better pre-emption for DX12 and that's pretty much it.

Also, beyond fixing "broken Fermi" aka the 400 series, when has nVidia ever made a 2nd gen of the same architecture on the same process? (and please don't say Maxwell is 2nd gen Kepler) The closest I can think of is GTX 285, but that involved a process improvement from 65 to 55nm.

Finally, I'm not even saying Volta will launch in May 2017 (actually I didn't even say May, simply "2017"), just giving out reasons why IF it launched, it wouldn't be the biggest shocker ever.

Edit: One more thing: from 40nm to eventually failing 20nm, TSMC had issues with every single node shrink (40nm yield issues, 32nm HKMG completely scrapped, 28nm initial yield issues, 20nm failed basically). So it's hard to say for certain how much of the drawn out release cycles is attributable to TSMC.
Edited by magnek - 7/26/16 at 7:47pm
post #112 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by magnek View Post

How you wanna bet that the vast majority of that R&D was spent on getting their design to work with 16 nm FF instead of the actual architecture design itself? This is in addition todesigning a suitable interposer, memory controllers, and getting HBM2 to work with GP100 for the HPC market. If only a small portion of that "billions" was spent on architecture design, then it could amortize in a relatively short amount of time.

The other key thing you keep ignoring is the remarkable architectural similarity between Maxwell and Pascal. When was the last time two supposedly different architectures from nVidia showed such similarity? I even linked to the GTX 1080 white paper where nVidia spelled out themselves what the differences in the uarchs were, and it's really not much -- updated PolyMorph engine to include SMP for VR stuff; 20% more efficient memory compression; better pre-emption for DX12 and that's pretty much it.

Also, beyond fixing "broken Fermi" aka the 400 series, when has nVidia ever made a 2nd gen of the same architecture on the same process? (and please don't say Maxwell is 2nd gen Kepler) The closest I can think of is GTX 285, but that involved a process improvement from 65 to 55nm.

Finally, I'm not even saying Volta will launch in May 2017 (actually I didn't even say May, simply "2017"), just giving out reasons why IF it launched, it wouldn't be the biggest shocker ever.

Edit: One more thing: from 40nm to eventually failing 20nm, TSMC had issues with every single node shrink (40nm yield issues, 32nm HKMG completely scrapped, 28nm initial yield issues, 20nm failed basically). So it's hard to say for certain how much of the drawn out release cycles is attributable to TSMC.

Well just look at how many designs they have. GP106, 104, 102, 100. They had never had this many launched at same time. Maybe eve 107 on the works. Nvidia spend most of the time making the cards more efficient.
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post #113 of 272
bet they can't even do 4k at 120-144fps
post #114 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mand12 View Post

And that's mostly barrel distortion from the projector and the camera taking the picture...

Ppl are reading too much into the chart. First possible parallax error with projection. Next, pascal is 2 sq grid away from Volta and it clearly show before 2016 base on the red line. Whatever volta is, its coming 2 years after pascal release as u can see the gap between them.

So if pascal is mid 2016, den volta is mid 2018. Maybe slightly earlier but still 2018
Edited by guttheslayer - 7/26/16 at 11:35pm
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post #115 of 272
I guess the 1080Ti is not too far away then. It is a bit early and to say the truth I would much rather have them make Volta 10nm instead of 16 once again, just take a bit more time. 2017 Q2 seems way too early for a new GPUs line-up. AMD should really hurry up with their higher end GPUs and they better be as good if not better considering the fact that they took significantly more time than Nvidia.

I would aim for less frequent release with more impactful performance and architecture improvements.
Edited by Cybertox - 7/27/16 at 12:15am
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post #116 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cybertox View Post

I would aim for less frequent release with more impactful performance and architecture improvements.

Yes, but you want to spend less money while Nvidia wants you to spend more money. Lots of releases with just enough of an improvement would make more money.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 16nm Volta next year.

edit: I am always failing with my quotes. frown.gif
Edited by Asmodian - 7/27/16 at 10:34am
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post #117 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asmodian View Post

Yes, but you want to spend less money while Nvidia wants you to spend more money. Lots of releases with just enough of an improvement would make more money.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 16nm Volta next year.

Yeah they are definitely milking each architecture as much as it is possible which is rather unfortunate.

You quoted the wrong user tongue.gif
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post #118 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by maarten12100 View Post

Nvidia's Pascal is nothing like their previous archs so I don't see it as a refinement perhaps you're talking about Intel VS AMD where Intel is basically just improving Sandy Bridge. (At this point though, even Skylake and Sandy Bridge don't look much alike)

AMD's GCN even though they still call it that has also changed a lot. The reason why Intel can't pull of 25% generation over generation is due to 2 reasons:
First: CPUs don't scale as well with more cores as compared to GPUs which exhibit near perfect scaling.
Second: There is no need for Intel to do that.

I guess even Poe's Law fails sometimes.
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post #119 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by EniGma1987 View Post

I guess even Poe's Law fails sometimes.

The reality is that there are people on this very forum who hold such views. You just have to be more obvious.
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post #120 of 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by guttheslayer View Post

Ppl are reading too much into the chart. First possible parallax error with projection. Next, pascal is 2 sq grid away from Volta and it clearly show before 2016 base on the red line. Whatever volta is, its coming 2 years after pascal release as u can see the gap between them.

So if pascal is mid 2016, den volta is mid 2018. Maybe slightly earlier but still 2018

I honestly couldn't tell if he was joking or not. But a part of me thinks it was just a very elaborate troll.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asmodian View Post

Yes, but you want to spend less money while Nvidia wants you to spend more money. Lots of releases with just enough of an improvement would make more money.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 16nm Volta next year.

Hence why I said drip-feeding of performance. But basically yeah.
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