Originally Posted by essanbee
Actually I see even odds; There is other life or there is not. 50/50 odds are not bad.
There is a 100% chance of one of those answers being correct, not a 50% chance of either.
Originally Posted by Mand12
Just because there exist two possibilities does not mean that those possibilities are equally likely. Let's play a game:
You get to flip a coin, and if you get heads, I give you a dollar.
Then I get to flip ten coins, and if any of them get heads, you give me a dollar.
We repeat this process for a hundred rounds. You flip, I flip, a hundred pairs.
Any guess as to who comes out ahead?
Whoever is flipping the double headed coin.
Originally Posted by GingerJohn
Arguing the existence of intelligent alien life is kind of like arguing that the sun will rise tomorrow: Based on past observations it is highly likely that it will, however we can't prove
that until the morning.
Well, we can prove where our planet is and how it moves. We can also forecast the future existence of our sun with more than a 12 hour lead time. So, I don't really like this analogy.
The sun rising tomorrow is a given, based on our current understanding of natural laws. Life elsewhere, while it may seem like a near certainty, cannot yet be proven or forecast in the same manner. I would be very surprised if there wasn't life that originated independently from that on Earth out there somewhere, but I know
this planet will keep rotating on it's axis for at least 12 more hours, and I know
the sun will still be there in 12 hours. Far future predictions of events may get a bit fuzzy, but there isn't even any conceivable force that could alter these facts without more forewarning.