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[ScientificAmerican] Earth’s CO2 Passes the 400 PPM Threshold—Maybe Permanently - Page 8

post #71 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post

I'm not sure what you're going on about.

The scientific method is sound, irrespective of occasional mistakes made in it's application.
On the question of whether there is climate change and if humans have had a non-trivial impact on it? Very nearly, yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BulletBait View Post

You're either confusing hypothesis and SCIENTIFIC theory or the culturally accepted idiom of theory as a hypothetical. I mean, if you want to go the same route as Ken Ham with evolution, don't get angry when I laugh at you.
Observation counts, which means previous observation counts, which means drilling into thousands of years old ice and getting the tiny little trapped air bubbles from the day they were crystallized in ice from all those thousands of years ago counts. Which means the mean temperature based on accumulation and how that coincides with total atmospheric composition of known greenhouse gasses such as CH4, CO2, SO2, and NOx counts.

It's a theory based on observation. Do you really want to prove something potentially cataclysmic right by experiment? That's what you're saying, you want to tempt an ELE just to prove the observations are hogwash.

There's already published articles on how rapid CO2 rise caused ELEs in the past. But why not, let's do it to ourselves just to prove those dumb scientists and their hokey pokey 'theories' are all just 'hypothetical.'

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/april/prehistoric-mass-extinction-042710.html

You both know what I meant. You can drag this discussion into minutiae about definitions if you like; however, that just obfuscates the issue at hand. What we know is constantly changing. How we measure and what we can measure is constantly changing. To declare an issue as "settled science" is so disingenuous and you both know it.

Tim Wirth said in 1993: “We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing.” It's that type of ideology thats at issue here. This is much less science than it is "religious/political dogma." I have trouble placing my belief in "science" presented by people who follow "the scientific method", cooking the books along the way all to achieve a political end.

So, to answer your question, that's what I'm "Going on about."
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post #72 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by BulletBait View Post

It's a theory based on observation.

Yes, that's how the hypotheses that lead to the theory was tested...via observation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BulletBait View Post

Do you really want to prove something potentially cataclysmic right by experiment?

That's pretty much what the last 200 years of human history has done, don't you think?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BulletBait View Post

That's what you're saying, you want to tempt an ELE just to prove the observations are hogwash.

There's already published articles on how rapid CO2 rise caused ELEs in the past. But why not, let's do it to ourselves just to prove those dumb scientists and their hokey pokey 'theories' are all just 'hypothetical.

I have a feeling you completely misunderstood my post.
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post #73 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by LancerVI View Post

You both know what I meant. You can drag this discussion into minutiae about definitions if you like; however, that just obfuscates the issue at hand.

No, it is the issue at hand. No informed discussion can be had, no decisions made, until the facts are known and accepted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LancerVI View Post

To declare an issue as "settled science" is so disingenuous and you both know it.

There is no conceivable new evidence that could arise, beyond something utterly fantastic, that would alter the basic facts of the issue. Those core issues are as settled as anything gets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LancerVI View Post

Tim Wirth said in 1993: “We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing.” It's that type of ideology thats at issue here. This is much less science than it is "religious/political dogma." I have trouble placing my belief in "science" presented by people who follow "the scientific method", cooking the books along the way all to achieve a political end.

So, to answer your question, that's what I'm "Going on about."

So because someone decided to use something that turned out to be true to push their ideology, you have decided to ignore the facts to spite them?
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post #74 of 189
I'm looking back now and I think I got caught in the heat of the moment and misconstrued what you said @Blameless. tongue.gif

Sorry.

To everyone else, my point still stands about the observed data!
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post #75 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post

Facts are facts; they don't have any moral implications, they just are.
No, things aren't simple as the science...which is why I prefer to stick to the science and leave the morals, ethics, economics, and politics to others.

I do find it rather comical that so many people seem to need to convince themselves that the consensus is somehow fundamentally wrong in order to continue acting in their own short-term self interests.
You need to put more thought into a statement like that. Facts absolutely do have moral implications. Anything that can be considered equal to or based in reality will undoubtedly have moral implications, unless you're such a scientific purist that you believe global warming has more basis in reality than morality. If that's your stance, you have an idealistic view of science that'll alienate you from the people whom you want to reach out to about climate change. Requiring people to believe in the facts presented about climate change before engaging in a conversation about their future as it relates to climate change is a confrontational, antagonistic approach. The way you present your perspective will only create more climate deniers.

You can't look at the existence of global warming in only an empirical way, and then use this empirical method of confirmation, solely, to guide your actions in light of a newly discovered fact. If you need to unburden yourself from morality to recognize a fact, that's your own business, but morality and facts can and do coexist. When you demand action based on fact, you're responsible for recognizing there are more than just empirical facts to deal with. You're rooting yourself in the belief that morality must be shed to recognize a fact. That belief is wrong: you can ignore moral implications to find the truth of a subject, but that isn't justification for continuing to ignore moral implications as you decide what to do about this newly discovered fact.

Global warming is a fact with insurmountable moral implications, and denying that will only result in greater resistance from people who need to be convinced. No one will trust the opinion of a person who unburdens himself from morality to recognize fact, and then uses the necessity of that as justification to continue ignoring morality going forward. Sticking to the science and leaving the morals for "someone else" is your own personal necessity: in practice, it would be disastrous. It may yet be disastrous because many people share your point of view in wealthy parts of the world.

I'll gladly take the side of climate deniers when self-proclaimed authorities use facts as justification to demand action while denying accountability. Early scientists didn't set guidelines for separating fact from fiction just so they could refer back and say "morality doesn't apply this is about facts!" They didn't call people to action in light of their discoveries, at all. If you want people to acknowledge that global warming is a fact, you need to recognize that it comes with implications.

If you read my posts, you'll notice that I establish reasons to remain neutral about the actual validity of global warming. The purpose of that is to illuminate the reason so many people have so much doubt about the existence of global warming. If you don't take that critical step, you'll continue ostracizing the people you're trying to communicate with because you're failing to understand their perspective. And albeit, they might be having trouble communicating their perspective when they flat out deny the science. It isn't about the science for them, though, it's about the implications and their lack of control over the situation.

You can gripe about the fact that people don't accept science for being science. You can argue up and down, all day, that science is fact. But, these people are just not scientists; it's a question of faith for them. You and I are not scientists either; it's a question of faith for us, too. It's about faith in the scientific community's integrity. It's about faith in their resistance to subversive tactics from governments. It's about their unwillingness to give laymen full disclosure. The mistrust they're receiving is absolutely warranted; the vast majority of people in this world are intellectually incompatible with the methodology used to see climate change as an extinction level crises. It's not a matter of simply getting smarter; reaching the height of the scientific community to grasp these issues requires a lifetime of guidance. So few people have the freedom to nourish their minds so delicately. The modern world has done work to reach out and share these opportunities, but the job they've done is wholly inadequate and blatant wealth and excess exists in the scientific circles. The education system has a cancer of exclusivity and condescension. The costs, the deplorable prestige, the wealth.

No, I'll go back to recognizing that for most people, it is a question of faith. Most of us are, whether we want to acknowledge it or not. We all have some certain level of understanding, but the full empirical truth will evade most of us because it's just too complex. In the absence of understanding the full scientific method used, we're only able to perform two methods of assessment:

1.) Our own garbled, broken, ignorant understanding of a complex scientific methodology.
2.) Our own faith and trust in the people who have a fuller understanding of said scientific methodology.

It's not about fact. Fact is subjective when you, yourself, don't possess the methodology to confirm it. Without the methodology, you're only engaging in pseudoscience and ad-hominem. I'm not saying that to offend you; I'm saying it because it's true of probably everyone on this forum. It's true of the majority of people who inhabit this planet. It should be hard to convince such a large portion of our 9 billion population to make drastic, extreme choices about their future.. especially when the such a small, highly privileged portion of our society is presenting the reasons why.

The world is a big place. Many of the people who will fall under the jurisdiction of a "global warming action plan" aren't even significantly contributing to rising CO2 levels as it is. Most of them will be agreeing to give up on concepts of wealth that we've been promising to provide them with for more than a century, if they'd only just wait a little longer. Many of them see western civilization as a perpetual source of war, waste and excess.. and they're not entirely wrong. Western civilization has a reputation of making and breaking promises, all over the world. I'm not saying this to offend anyone, I'm saying it because this is lending to the worldwide tensions. The biggest energy consumers in the world are primarily concerned with preventing the smallest energy consumes from becoming bigger. "Facts are facts" is not a satisfactory response to people who have stood by and watched western civilization swim in wealth and excess for the last century, and are now being told they must wait even longer to catch up.

The likelihood of a mass extinction event from these tensions is far more likely than the likelihood of a global warming mass extinction event taking place. Resistance over global warming agendas comes from the countries who stand to lose even more of their own sovereignty from these agendas, and the lack of compromise on both sides is resulting in higher tensions. Those tensions, in this nuclear era, is a problem. Global warming can take a back seat, as far as I'm concerned. It's time to start take morality more seriously.

You'll notice that when you talk to climate deniers, their arguments center around morality. There is ample good reason for that, even if the way the express it (expression by denial) is inherently wrong. This "facts are facts" attitude is counter productive and probably every bit as fallacious as flat out climate change denial.
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post #76 of 189
Again I say .... Why do we allow these threads? rolleyes.gif
post #77 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdstock76 View Post

Again I say .... Why do we allow these threads? rolleyes.gif

The alternative is a dead board with no discussions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

Wall of text
Attempting to condense that...'the little people don't know any better'? Is that what you're suggesting? That's one way to explain the lack of consensus around this issue.
post #78 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by lombardsoup View Post

Attempting to condense that...'the little people don't know any better'? Is that what you're suggesting? That's one way to explain the lack of consensus around this issue.
Not exactly. I'd say to people that proclaim science is fact, that they need to recognize the irony of that statement. They have faith in the establishment of science, not the global warming science they're evangelizing. They don't know the methodology. To people who proclaim climate change is not happening, I'd tell them to learn some of the methodology before judging the people who actually produced it.

To both of them, I'd recommend analyzing their own motives for choosing whichever side of the fence they've chosen, and I'd recommend that they both be humble about their conclusions. From my perspective, I see people who passively support anything branded with the word "science" who are afraid of having that faith called into question. I see people who passively deny it, because they're afraid of the implications. You get them together, and they both refuse to advance the conversation. The people on the scientific side are often purists who accept anything branded as science that suits their narrative. The people on the denial side often do the same, but also incorporate their mistrust for corrupt bodies that influence the scientific establishment. Neither are exactly wrong, because it's a question of faith in the scientific community on both sides and it's inherently impossible for either of them to come to a logical conclusion on the validity of climate change. Neither has the capacity to move forward in the debate, so you just get hostility and confusion out of it all. World leaders suppose this type of ignorance because they don't believe in real disclosure. Best case scenario, these leaders might think they're protecting us from the reality of it all. Worst case scenario, they're willfully trying to take advantage of us on behalf of the people who lobby for them. In reality they seem to do a bit of both, and they certainly hold us in complete and total contempt because they never explain the real consequences involved in reducing carbon emissions -- we need to make some seriously desperate sacrifices.. the kind we've been sheltered from our entire lives, living in a western society.

Regular people need to move beyond the reality of it, and just talk about implications. The consequences of not acting, and the consequences of acting. Real scientists need to engage the community in a way that isn't strictly informal, too. A problem has been introduced which only they fully understand, and in their idealism they've done more harm than good.

Politicians are using this new fear to bolster their campaigns, get votes. The Syrian refugee crises was a direct result of global warming according to the president of the United States; these are problems. We've been left to the wolves on this issue, and the scientific community will only talk about whether or not it's happening.

Solutions are needed and people need to be fully informed about the reality of decisions being made globally. Fossil fuels still exist in abundance and militarism still exists, and cheap abundant energy access is necessary for national defense in the eyes of militant purists. Global warming prevention requires global, unified, cooperative suppression of fossil fuel consumption. It's like going into a war zone where everyone has guns, and telling them to disarm or everyone will die. No one feels comfortable with disarming.

People want to look at this from a purely scientific view, or purely experiential view. There's room in between, but no one can transcend their own bias to get there and figure it out. It's fine for morons arguing on forums like us, but internationally it's becoming a catalyst for much bigger threats like the escalating nuclear tensions. The biggest problem, in my eyes, is that world leaders hold laymen in utter and complete contempt. They refuse to talk realistically about it all. I'm in Canada, and our government has been denying local oil and gas growth on the premise that we need to stop global warming, so what's happened is we have began importing more oil from The Middle East. That's not a solution; that's a bigger problem, especially considering we began our natural gas exploration with the intent to reduce carbon emissions by choosing a drastically less carbon rich fuel (LNG.)

I'm fine with whatever needs to be done. I think many people would be, but we all get the sense that we're being intentionally misinformed. The reality of global warming is being willfully ignored and our leaders are the ones facilitating that ignorance. It's only leading to idealists on one side, and flat out deniers on the other side. Full disclosure is needed because the decisions being made effect all of us.


Edit: Still a text wall. Sorry, some things can't be reduced to a soundbite. redface.gif
Edited by Mookster - 9/28/16 at 5:20pm
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post #79 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

You need to put more thought into a statement like that. Facts absolutely do have moral implications. Anything that can be considered equal to or based in reality will undoubtedly have moral implications, unless you're such a scientific purist that you believe global warming has more basis in reality than morality.

Well, climate change is a tangibly real phenomena, while morality is a subjective social construct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

It's not about fact. Fact is subjective when you, yourself, don't possess the methodology to confirm it. Without the methodology, you're only engaging in pseudoscience and ad-hominem. I'm not saying that to offend you; I'm saying it because it's true of probably everyone on this forum. It's true of the majority of people who inhabit this planet.

I'm married to a planetary science PhD and have worked as a tech in geochem research labs (though none explicitly doing climate science). I've seen quite a bit of this stuff first hand. Hell, I've even taken core samples (of sediment, not ice, though).

Regardless, one doesn't need first hand experience or personal contacts to be able to separate reliable consensus from the chaff of agenda and opinion. They just need to be able to read and have a willingness to look.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

It should be hard to convince such a large portion of our 9 billion population to make drastic, extreme choices about their future.. especially when the such a small, highly privileged portion of our society is presenting the reasons why.

I'm not even trying to convince anyone they should do anything about climate change. I'm not willing to sacrifice my comfort or my money to change things, and I'm not hypocritical enough to expect that from anyone else either.

However, I'm also not going to be caught by surprise at the effects of climate change, nor try to deny that I had a hand in exacerbating the situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mookster View Post

I'll gladly take the side of climate deniers when self-proclaimed authorities use facts as justification to demand action while denying accountability.

Take their side in what sense? Denying it's existence, or resisting change that might mitigate it?

I care far less for what's done or not done about climate change than for acknowledging the facts of climate change. There are serious downsides to any action or inaction, but there are no downsides to educating one's self.

Mostly, it just irks me that the discussion invariably degenerates into an area that should be settled (i.e. is it real) rather than the merits of various courses of action/inaction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lombardsoup View Post

Attempting to condense that...'the little people don't know any better'? Is that what you're suggesting? That's one way to explain the lack of consensus around this issue.

And that's essentially true. The public is the only segment that has doubts over the basics.

Politicians and business know the facts...they have to in order to know what to emphasize, and what to hide, to get what they want.
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post #80 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blameless View Post

And that's essentially true. The public is the only segment that has doubts over the basics.

Politicians and business know the facts...they have to in order to know what to emphasize, and what to hide, to get what they want.

So, elitism.
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