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[FB/BR] Tesla Becomes Most Valuable US Automaker. You Can't Afford To Ignore This Stock. - Page 7

post #61 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSomPa View Post

That has zero relevance if you want to make money off Tesla's stock.

So you are suggesting people to buy into thing air basically? How many times was the Model X pushed back and delayed to their customers?

Heck, even this:
Quote:
"Will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1 next year? Of course not," Musk said of the all-electric Tesla Model 3 during a Tesla earnings call.

You know how much slack every other auto maker gets for these kind of things? But not Tesla, they seem to be some kind of an god in this field.

But to each their own I guess.

For example, lets compare that to AMD. People were buying up AMD stocks because they actually knew Zen was coming sooner rather than later. With Tesla you never know what happens next, just speculation.
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post #62 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadRabbit View Post

So you are suggesting people to buy into thing air basically? How many times was the Model X pushed back and delayed to their customers?

Heck, even this:
You know how much slack every other auto maker gets for these kind of things? But not Tesla, they seem to be some kind of an god in this field.

But to each their own I guess.

For example, lets compare that to AMD. People were buying up AMD stocks because they actually knew Zen was coming sooner rather than later. With Tesla you never know what happens next, just speculation.

Because every other automaker did this 90 years ago, or with a much larger seeding budget, and Tesla is doing it on it's own to start an entirely different trend, and that has tangible value as well. I hate when people only think about the financials and don't realize people actually like the message Musk embodies and believe in that, not JUST him.

Musk creates movements bigger than himself seem possible, and when progress is demonstrated the message gains validity in the eyes of many skeptics and more people begin to believe.

I completely understand the desire to analyze the companies abstractly, but Musk's moonshots are the rare exceptions to the rule. Across the board, they are comically terrible at meeting deadlines but they always show progress and people WANT the vision he's selling. He has a track record of delivering on ridiculous moonshot assertions which lends support to his initially outlandish claims.

Musk has never been coy about his goals at any of startups. You know the company goal, and over time progress and evidence build towards that direction. People are investing in the proof he's delivering.
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post #63 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avonosac View Post

Because every other automaker did this 90 years ago, or with a much larger seeding budget, and Tesla is doing it on it's own to start an entirely different trend, and that has tangible value as well. I hate when people only think about the financials and don't realize people actually like the message Musk embodies and believe in that, not JUST him.

Musk creates movements bigger than himself seem possible, and when progress is demonstrated the message gains validity in the eyes of many skeptics and more people begin to believe.

I completely understand the desire to analyze the companies abstractly, but Musk's moonshots are the rare exceptions to the rule. Across the board, they are comically terrible at meeting deadlines but they always show progress and people WANT the vision he's selling. He has a track record of delivering on ridiculous moonshot assertions which lends support to his initially outlandish claims.

Musk has never been coy about his goals at any of startups. You know the company goal, and over time progress and evidence build towards that direction. People are investing in the proof he's delivering.

I understand that he has the right mindset and all but...

What Vision is he selling exactly with Tesla? The greener future? That's not what he is giving exactly. I already pointed this out in another post which a mod decided to delete since I used some "***" marks in my post. Electricity isn't something thats just there. It needs to be generated and for most parts its still either coal or even nuclear. As well as building a electric car isn't by any means better than your regular car. Even worse, a lot of people actually argue it might be even worse than your petrol engine car manufacturing. So, my question stands, which idea is he selling exactly? And at a price point Teslas are going for, not going to happen soon anyway considering you can get an diesel/petrol car for a measly 15k now (brand new).

Dont get me wrong, I like his ideas and all but some people just arent seeing the bigger picture here, or dont want to. Things are way more complicated than "Hurr my electric car is not polluting so much". And believe me, most countries, especially the bigger ones, are not going to part from the conventional energy sources any time soon to create electricity. So, basically, the car might be more "friendly" but the means the charge it, not so much.

So all-in-all, how is Tesla so valued again compared to other car manufacturers? Because it's not just a car company while VW, Daimler, GM etc are exactly only that.
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post #64 of 372
I read once a Prius battery needs to be replaced every 5 years on average, that's 3-5 grand. I imagine Tesla batteries are the same after x amount of mileage.

My entire life I have bought used cars for 2-3 grand in cash, in full, each time (3x total) said car had 30mpg and lasted me over 5 years with no maintenance outside of standard oil changes, etc. I can afford better sure, but it drives me from point A to point B and its not super ugly to look at, so yeah w.e

Personally, as tight as money can get sometimes, like if you lose a career (and all of you will someday, whether its 5 years, tomorrow, 20 years... industries are going to be having massive upheavals of change as advances in robotics continue) I'd rather have a nice nest egg to sit on instead of a 40 grand car that has the same mileage life expectancy as my 2 grand car. Around what 200-300k miles is when most cars start to fall apart (ratio/percentage speaking).

Everyone can live as they wish though, I know Ben Bernanke the old top finance guy under Obama drove the same like 10 grand car his entire life I think lol wink.gif I am in good company.
    
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post #65 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by caenlen View Post

I read once a Prius battery needs to be replaced every 5 years on average, that's 3-5 grand. I imagine Tesla batteries are the same after x amount of mileage.

My entire life I have bought used cars for 2-3 grand in cash, in full, each time (3x total) said car had 30mpg and lasted me over 5 years with no maintenance outside of standard oil changes, etc. I can afford better sure, but it drives me from point A to point B and its not super ugly to look at, so yeah w.e

Personally, as tight as money can get sometimes, like if you lose a career (and all of you will someday, whether its 5 years, tomorrow, 20 years... industries are going to be having massive upheavals of change as advances in robotics continue) I'd rather have a nice nest egg to sit on instead of a 40 grand car that has the same mileage life expectancy as my 2 grand car. Around what 200-300k miles is when most cars start to fall apart (ratio/percentage speaking).

Everyone can live as they wish though, I know Ben Bernanke the old top finance guy under Obama drove the same like 10 grand car his entire life I think lol wink.gif I am in good company.

30mpg? I envy you frown.gif I'm getting 17.

But for the most I actually agree with you.
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post #66 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by caenlen View Post

I read once a Prius battery needs to be replaced every 5 years on average, that's 3-5 grand. I imagine Tesla batteries are the same after x amount of mileage.

My entire life I have bought used cars for 2-3 grand in cash, in full, each time (3x total) said car had 30mpg and lasted me over 5 years with no maintenance outside of standard oil changes, etc. I can afford better sure, but it drives me from point A to point B and its not super ugly to look at, so yeah w.e

Personally, as tight as money can get sometimes, like if you lose a career (and all of you will someday, whether its 5 years, tomorrow, 20 years... industries are going to be having massive upheavals of change as advances in robotics continue) I'd rather have a nice nest egg to sit on instead of a 40 grand car that has the same mileage life expectancy as my 2 grand car. Around what 200-300k miles is when most cars start to fall apart (ratio/percentage speaking).

Everyone can live as they wish though, I know Ben Bernanke the old top finance guy under Obama drove the same like 10 grand car his entire life I think lol wink.gif I am in good company.

Tesla a battery packs have 8 year warranty.
Edited by budgetgamer120 - 4/13/17 at 6:45pm
post #67 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadRabbit View Post

I understand that he has the right mindset and all but...

What Vision is he selling exactly with Tesla? The greener future? That's not what he is giving exactly. I already pointed this out in another post which a mod decided to delete since I used some "***" marks in my post. Electricity isn't something thats just there. It needs to be generated and for most parts its still either coal or even nuclear. As well as building a electric car isn't by any means better than your regular car. Even worse, a lot of people actually argue it might be even worse than your petrol engine car manufacturing. So, my question stands, which idea is he selling exactly? And at a price point Teslas are going for, not going to happen soon anyway considering you can get an diesel/petrol car for a measly 15k now (brand new).

Dont get me wrong, I like his ideas and all but some people just arent seeing the bigger picture here, or dont want to. Things are way more complicated than "Hurr my electric car is not polluting so much". And believe me, most countries, especially the bigger ones, are not going to part from the conventional energy sources any time soon to create electricity. So, basically, the car might be more "friendly" but the means the charge it, not so much.

So all-in-all, how is Tesla so valued again compared to other car manufacturers? Because it's not just a car company while VW, Daimler, GM etc are exactly only that.

Your points are not invalid, they are just near sighted. I can't help but cringe at how you say 'even nuclear' like that is somehow a negative. Self fulfilling prophecies around even the worst type U-238 fission are asinine at the very least. There are so many other massive technological increases beyond the plants we have in the USA because of heavy propaganda and unscientific environmentalists.

Most of the bad components in the chemistry of a battery is recyclable, and if we are still using Lithium ion in a few years (we will be), the second batteries you make don't need to mine it from the ground anymore.

Going back to the vision bit, the mission statement is there, and its been plastered all over everything he's ever done and said about Tesla. The goal is to bring about the transition to renewable energy. Building infrastructure costs money, time, and resources. The gigafactory when done will produce more LI battery capacity than the entire world did 5 years ago. They are just wrapping up a car meant for more mainstream use. Every automaker in the world has been forced to dump TONS of money into renewable energy cars, and competition is heating up, which will cause demand to heat up as supply will finally be unconstrained.

All of your points are true for a time, because you are only looking at the next few years where the rapid expansion and development happen. You couldn't do electric before because there was no storage or infrastructure available to do electric. You couldn't build the infrastructure or storage because there was no demand for electric. Cyclical self fulfilling prophecy. Musk is selling the path out, and making progress.

You can't argue with the science, once the explosive infrastructure growth calms down, the world will be greener because of the switch towards renewables. And tesla is the full package catalyst to make the utility and auto industries react.
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post #68 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avonosac View Post

Your points are not invalid, they are just near sighted. I can't help but cringe at how you say 'even nuclear' like that is somehow a negative. Self fulfilling prophecies around even the worst type U-238 fission are asinine at the very least. There are so many other massive technological increases beyond the plants we have in the USA because of heavy propaganda and unscientific environmentalists.

Most of the bad components in the chemistry of a battery is recyclable, and if we are still using Lithium ion in a few years (we will be), the second batteries you make don't need to mine it from the ground anymore.

Going back to the vision bit, the mission statement is there, and its been plastered all over everything he's ever done and said about Tesla. The goal is to bring about the transition to renewable energy. Building infrastructure costs money, time, and resources. The gigafactory when done will produce more LI battery capacity than the entire world did 5 years ago. They are just wrapping up a car meant for more mainstream use. Every automaker in the world has been forced to dump TONS of money into renewable energy cars, and competition is heating up, which will cause demand to heat up as supply will finally be unconstrained.

All of your points are true for a time, because you are only looking at the next few years where the rapid expansion and development happen. You couldn't do electric before because there was no storage or infrastructure available to do electric. You couldn't build the infrastructure or storage because there was no demand for electric. Cyclical self fulfilling prophecy. Musk is selling the path out, and making progress.

You can't argue with the science, once the explosive infrastructure growth calms down, the world will be greener because of the switch towards renewables. And tesla is the full package catalyst to make the utility and auto industries react.

Of course they are near sighted as I'm talking about right now and the very short future in mind. We could argue day in and day out what might come in the future, none of us know exactly. You know why? Not because we have the technology but because we have governments and lobbyists doing their utmost to keep some things as they are right now.

Your points are also all right and dandy but they all suffer from the same thing, we do not know how things will be regulated in the future. And of course you can cringe at my "nuclear" comment but right now, it's not "clean" energy and things might and do happen to those plants which will give a huge blowback to everything. Even further, I'm now talking about where I come from and the rest of the countries near here, we are all on coal and it won't change any time soon since we do not have neither the money nor the willpower in the higher-up to go onto something cleaner. We have a few small windfarms and thats about it. So yes, I'm sorry that I dont know how exactly it is in the US but here its a lot different so I'm mostly going by that.

In the end my point is, we don't know where we will be going with all these electric cars and thats mostly due to gov. and their mindset. Not to mention BP, Shell etc have TONS of money to lobby that it wont happen soon. It will happen eventually but not as soon as you'd hope I imagine.
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post #69 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadRabbit View Post

Your points are also all right and dandy but they all suffer from the same thing, we do not know how things will be regulated in the future. And of course you can cringe at my "nuclear" comment but right now, it's not "clean" energy and things might and do happen to those plants which will give a huge blowback to everything. Even further, I'm now talking about where I come from and the rest of the countries near here, we are all on coal and it won't change any time soon since we do not have neither the money nor the willpower in the higher-up to go onto something cleaner. We have a few small windfarms and thats about it. So yes, I'm sorry that I dont know how exactly it is in the US but here its a lot different so I'm mostly going by that.

In the end my point is, we don't know where we will be going with all these electric cars and thats mostly due to gov. and their mindset. Not to mention BP, Shell etc have TONS of money to lobby that it wont happen soon. It will happen eventually but not as soon as you'd hope I imagine.

On the bold, its a self fulfilling technology prophecy. The reason its so 'bad' right now is because we can't deploy the new technology. The reactors designed in 1990 are 100x better than the ones designed and developed in the 60s, but when it takes 10-12 years to validate a single design and THEN 7-15 years to BUILD the plant because of false information from propaganda and unscientific environmentalists, you can't exactly reap the benefits of the 'modern' age technology we actually have. The reactors designs being completed today are probably another 1000x better than the ones from 1990 because of the explosion of simulation capabilities for nuclear research. There literally is no plant in existence to invalidate the claim of 'dirty' because they won't let it get built, the technology is sitting on the shelves waiting for the regulators and the courts to get their stuff together.

Be the change you want to see in the world. Vote with your dollars.

There is wisdom in a lot of our common sayings. You are right, these cabals do have and use a ton of money to keep the wheels greased in their favor. That is the reality which drives the primary point I'm making. This concept is called activist investing, and it is a field which is growing in capital and popularity as a crowd sourced capitalistic shared voice. Tesla is worth that much because its doing all of the things necessary to make this vision happen, and people WANT to BUY into that vision to make it a reality and be a part of the change they want to see.

If you insist on boiling down every business to a financials sheet it will never be worth what the market rates it at (up or down), but that is an error of the fallacy of comparing two companies through a standard metric and none whatsoever of Tesla. If you get right down to it despite all the spreadsheets, reports, targets, press releases, and hype the large investment firms don't invest only on the numbers or they would make standard returns. They sell the data that they track as this oracle and sometimes it works, but they always fail to address when and why their models don't work. The problem is an arbitrary portion of the success of a company is dependent on factors which can be quantified, but I would argue an equal or greater portion comes from unquantifiable factors. The investment firms and financial planners have the lay man and the hobby investor believing the lie that the data of the market is key, all the while their 'magic sauce' is getting to know the intangibles of the market, and companies to make value judgement alongside the data.

All of that noise aside, you're right this is a long battle with a well funded and entrenched opponent. So why take the nearsighted view? Human history has shown the aggregation of nearsighted decisions leads to ruination, so why advocate and support this type of behavior? I challenge you to consider the butterfly effect, and look at the world through the lens of 'how can I make things better today?'. Every 'largest change in the history of humanity' started with a single tiny nudge, so go out in the world and nudge like hell. You will never know ahead of time which will snowball and gain momentum, so just keep on nudging things in the right direction.
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post #70 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avonosac View Post

On the bold, its a self fulfilling technology prophecy. The reason its so 'bad' right now is because we can't deploy the new technology. The reactors designed in 1990 are 100x better than the ones designed and developed in the 60s, but when it takes 10-12 years to validate a single design and THEN 7-15 years to BUILD the plant because of false information from propaganda and unscientific environmentalists, you can't exactly reap the benefits of the 'modern' age technology we actually have. The reactors designs being completed today are probably another 1000x better than the ones from 1990 because of the explosion of simulation capabilities for nuclear research. There literally is no plant in existence to invalidate the claim of 'dirty' because they won't let it get built, the technology is sitting on the shelves waiting for the regulators and the courts to get their stuff together.

Be the change you want to see in the world. Vote with your dollars.

There is wisdom in a lot of our common sayings. You are right, these cabals do have and use a ton of money to keep the wheels greased in their favor. That is the reality which drives the primary point I'm making. This concept is called activist investing, and it is a field which is growing in capital and popularity as a crowd sourced capitalistic shared voice. Tesla is worth that much because its doing all of the things necessary to make this vision happen, and people WANT to BUY into that vision to make it a reality and be a part of the change they want to see.

If you insist on boiling down every business to a financials sheet it will never be worth what the market rates it at (up or down), but that is an error of the fallacy of comparing two companies through a standard metric and none whatsoever of Tesla. If you get right down to it despite all the spreadsheets, reports, targets, press releases, and hype the large investment firms don't invest only on the numbers or they would make standard returns. They sell the data that they track as this oracle and sometimes it works, but they always fail to address when and why their models don't work. The problem is an arbitrary portion of the success of a company is dependent on factors which can be quantified, but I would argue an equal or greater portion comes from unquantifiable factors. The investment firms and financial planners have the lay man and the hobby investor believing the lie that the data of the market is key, all the while their 'magic sauce' is getting to know the intangibles of the market, and companies to make value judgement alongside the data.

All of that noise aside, you're right this is a long battle with a well funded and entrenched opponent. So why take the nearsighted view? Human history has shown the aggregation of nearsighted decisions leads to ruination, so why advocate and support this type of behavior? I challenge you to consider the butterfly effect, and look at the world through the lens of 'how can I make things better today?'. Every 'largest change in the history of humanity' started with a single tiny nudge, so go out in the world and nudge like hell. You will never know ahead of time which will snowball and gain momentum, so just keep on nudging things in the right direction.

I think you have got me wrong on some parts or I'm not able to argument myself the best I could.

I have NOTHING against where Tesla (or any other company like that) is going. I welcome more greener things however I do not see those things happening soon enough for the said reasons we both have pointed out.

As for the part you replied to me in bold. I get it, the nuclear plants are getting better and better but as you said, those take decades. And to be fair a decade is long long away to consider it to be useful just right now or even in a couple of years. That doesnt mean we shouldnt strive for that of course. But all the things we have discussed (including Tesla and their future), its exactly that right now, the future. Imho we have bigger issues to deal with, even issues how we could get to that future faster.

But at least we can have a good discussion on this even though we seem to see things a bit different.
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Overclock.net › Forums › Industry News › Technology and Science News › [FB/BR] Tesla Becomes Most Valuable US Automaker. You Can't Afford To Ignore This Stock.